Daily Papers

Vision-language models (VLMs) could power real-time assistants and autonomous agents, but they face a critical challenge: understanding near-infinite video streams without escalating latency and memory usage. Processing entire videos with full attention leads to quadratic computational costs and poor performance on long videos. Meanwhile, simple sliding window methods are also flawed, as they either break coherence or suffer from high latency due to redundant recomputation. In this paper, we introduce StreamingVLM, a model designed for real-time, stable understanding of infinite visual input. Our approach is a unified framework that aligns training with streaming inference. During inference, we maintain a compact KV cache by reusing states of attention sinks, a short window of recent vision tokens, and a long window of recent text tokens. This streaming ability is instilled via a simple supervised fine-tuning (SFT) strategy that applies full attention on short, overlapped video chunks, which effectively mimics the inference-time attention pattern without training on prohibitively long contexts. For evaluation, we build Inf-Streams-Eval, a new benchmark with videos averaging over two hours that requires dense, per-second alignment between frames and text. On Inf-Streams-Eval, StreamingVLM achieves a 66.18% win rate against GPT-4O mini and maintains stable, real-time performance at up to 8 FPS on a single NVIDIA H100. Notably, our SFT strategy also enhances general VQA abilities without any VQA-specific fine-tuning, improving performance on LongVideoBench by +4.30 and OVOBench Realtime by +5.96. Code is available at https://github.com/mit-han-lab/streaming-vlm.

This paper studies the problem of real-world video super-resolution (VSR) for animation videos, and reveals three key improvements for practical animation VSR. First, recent real-world super-resolution approaches typically rely on degradation simulation using basic operators without any learning capability, such as blur, noise, and compression. In this work, we propose to learn such basic operators from real low-quality animation videos, and incorporate the learned ones into the degradation generation pipeline. Such neural-network-based basic operators could help to better capture the distribution of real degradations. Second, a large-scale high-quality animation video dataset, AVC, is built to facilitate comprehensive training and evaluations for animation VSR. Third, we further investigate an efficient multi-scale network structure. It takes advantage of the efficiency of unidirectional recurrent networks and the effectiveness of sliding-window-based methods. Thanks to the above delicate designs, our method, AnimeSR, is capable of restoring real-world low-quality animation videos effectively and efficiently, achieving superior performance to previous state-of-the-art methods. Codes and models are available at https://github.com/TencentARC/AnimeSR.

Recent advancements in video generation technologies have been significant, resulting in their widespread application across multiple domains. However, concerns have been mounting over the potential misuse of generated content. Tracing the origin of generated videos has become crucial to mitigate potential misuse and identify responsible parties. Existing video attribution methods require additional operations or the training of source attribution models, which may degrade video quality or necessitate large amounts of training samples. To address these challenges, we define for the first time the "few-shot training-free generated video attribution" task and propose SWIFT, which is tightly integrated with the temporal characteristics of the video. By leveraging the "Pixel Frames(many) to Latent Frame(one)" temporal mapping within each video chunk, SWIFT applies a fixed-length sliding window to perform two distinct reconstructions: normal and corrupted. The variation in the losses between two reconstructions is then used as an attribution signal. We conducted an extensive evaluation of five state-of-the-art (SOTA) video generation models. Experimental results show that SWIFT achieves over 90% average attribution accuracy with merely 20 video samples across all models and even enables zero-shot attribution for HunyuanVideo, EasyAnimate, and Wan2.2. Our source code is available at https://github.com/wangchao0708/SWIFT.

The self-attention mechanism in Transformer-based Large Language Models (LLMs) scales quadratically with input length, making long-context inference expensive. Sliding window attention (SWA) reduces this cost to linear complexity, but naively enabling complete SWA at inference-time for models pretrained with full attention (FA) causes severe long-context performance degradation due to training-inference mismatch. This makes us wonder: Can FA-pretrained LLMs be well adapted to SWA without pretraining? We investigate this by proposing Sliding Window Attention Adaptation (SWAA), a set of practical recipes that combine five methods for better adaptation: (1) applying SWA only during prefilling; (2) preserving "sink" tokens; (3) interleaving FA/SWA layers; (4) chain-of-thought (CoT); and (5) fine-tuning. Our experiments show that SWA adaptation is feasible while non-trivial: no single method suffices, yet specific synergistic combinations effectively recover the original long-context performance. We further analyze the performance-efficiency trade-offs of different SWAA configurations and provide recommended recipes for diverse scenarios. Our code is available at https://github.com/yuyijiong/sliding-window-attention-adaptation

Visual Geometry Grounded Transformers (VGGT) have set new benchmarks in high-fidelity 3D scene reconstruction. However, as the sequence length increases, these models suffer from catastrophic geometric forgetting and accumulation drift, primarily due to the quadratic complexity of global attention which necessitates truncated temporal windows. To overcome the resulting geometric drift, we present Mamba-VGGT, an enhanced VGGT framework capable of persistent long-range reasoning. Our key contribution is a Sliding Window Mamba (SWM) memory module that maintains an explicit external memory token across temporal windows. This module leverages selective state-space modeling to distill and propagate global geometric priors, effectively bypassing the memory constraints of traditional transformers. To integrate these long-term temporal cues without disrupting the highly optimized spatial features of the pre-trained VGGT, we propose a Zero-Init Spatial Memory Injector. Utilizing zero-convolutional layers, this injector adaptively fuses persistent memory into the patch token stream, ensuring structural stability and seamless feature alignment. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach significantly outperforms existing VGGT-based methods in maintaining spatial consistency and reducing trajectory accumulation errors. Our work provides a scalable, linear-complexity solution for geometry-grounded world modeling in extensive 3D environments.

Recent works show that hybrid architectures combining sliding window softmax attention layers with linear recurrent neural network (RNN) layers outperform both of these architectures taken separately. However, the impact of the window length and the interplay between softmax attention and linear RNN layers remain under-studied. In this work, we introduce SWAX, a hybrid architecture consisting of sliding-window attention and xLSTM linear RNN layers. A counter-intuitive finding with SWAX is that larger sliding windows do not improve the long-context performance. In fact, short window attention encourages the model to better train the long-term memory of the xLSTM, by relying less on the softmax attention mechanism for long context-retrieval. The issue with small sliding windows is that they are detrimental for short-context tasks, which could be solved with information from moderately larger sliding windows otherwise. Therefore, we train SWAX by stochastically changing the sliding window size, forcing the model to leverage both a longer context window and the xLSTM memory. SWAX trained with stochastic window sizes significantly outperforms regular window attention both on short and long-context problems.

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown exciting performance in listwise passage ranking. Due to the limited input length, existing methods often adopt the sliding window strategy. Such a strategy, though effective, is inefficient as it involves repetitive and serialized processing, which usually re-evaluates relevant passages multiple times. As a result, it incurs redundant API costs, which are proportional to the number of inference tokens. The development of long-context LLMs enables the full ranking of all passages within a single inference, avoiding redundant API costs. In this paper, we conduct a comprehensive study of long-context LLMs for ranking tasks in terms of efficiency and effectiveness. Surprisingly, our experiments reveal that full ranking with long-context LLMs can deliver superior performance in the supervised fine-tuning setting with a huge efficiency improvement. Furthermore, we identify two limitations of fine-tuning the full ranking model based on existing methods: (1) sliding window strategy fails to produce a full ranking list as a training label, and (2) the language modeling loss cannot emphasize top-ranked passage IDs in the label. To alleviate these issues, we propose a new complete listwise label construction approach and a novel importance-aware learning objective for full ranking. Experiments show the superior performance of our method over baselines. Our codes are available at https://github.com/8421BCD/fullrank.

Group Relative Policy Optimization has emerged as essential for aligning video diffusion models with human preferences, but faces a critical computational bottleneck: training a 14B parametered model typically demands hundreds of GPU days per experiment. Existing efficiency methods reduce costs through sliding window subsampling training timesteps, but fundamentally compromise optimization, exhibiting severe instability and failing to reach full trajectory performance. We present Flash-GRPO, a single-step training framework that outperforms full trajectory training in alignment quality under low computational budgets while substantially improving training efficiency. Flash-GRPO addresses two critical challenges: iso-temporal grouping eliminates timestep-confounded variance by enforcing prompt-wise temporal consistency, decoupling policy performance from timestep difficulty; temporal gradient rectification neutralizes the time-dependent scaling factor that causes vastly inconsistent gradient magnitudes across timesteps. Experiments on 1.3B to 14B parameter models validate Flash-GRPO's effectiveness, demonstrating substantial training acceleration with consistent stability and state-of-the-art alignment quality.

Linearizing pretrained large language models (LLMs) primarily relies on intra-layer hybrid attention mechanisms to alleviate the quadratic complexity of standard softmax attention. Existing methods perform token routing based on sliding-window partitions, resulting in position-based selection and fails to capture token-specific global importance. Meanwhile, linear attention further suffers from distribution shift caused by learnable feature maps that distort pretrained feature magnitudes. Motivated by these limitations, we propose STILL, an intra-layer hybrid linearization framework for efficiently linearizing LLMs. STILL introduces a Self-Saliency Score with strong local-global consistency, enabling accurate token selection using sliding-window computation, and retains salient tokens for sparse softmax attention while summarizing the remaining context via linear attention. To preserve pretrained representations, we design a Norm-Preserved Feature Map (NP-Map) that decouples feature direction from magnitude and reinjects pretrained norms. We further adopt a unified training-inference architecture with chunk-wise parallelization and delayed selection to improve hardware efficiency. Experiments show that STILL matches or surpasses the original pretrained model on commonsense and general reasoning tasks, and achieves up to a 86.2% relative improvement over prior linearized attention methods on long-context benchmarks.

Efficient streaming video generation is critical for simulating interactive and dynamic worlds. Existing methods distill few-step video diffusion models with sliding window attention, using initial frames as sink tokens to maintain attention performance and reduce error accumulation. However, video frames become overly dependent on these static tokens, resulting in copied initial frames and diminished motion dynamics. To address this, we introduce Reward Forcing, a novel framework with two key designs. First, we propose EMA-Sink, which maintains fixed-size tokens initialized from initial frames and continuously updated by fusing evicted tokens via exponential moving average as they exit the sliding window. Without additional computation cost, EMA-Sink tokens capture both long-term context and recent dynamics, preventing initial frame copying while maintaining long-horizon consistency. Second, to better distill motion dynamics from teacher models, we propose a novel Rewarded Distribution Matching Distillation (Re-DMD). Vanilla distribution matching treats every training sample equally, limiting the model's ability to prioritize dynamic content. Instead, Re-DMD biases the model's output distribution toward high-reward regions by prioritizing samples with greater dynamics rated by a vision-language model. Re-DMD significantly enhances motion quality while preserving data fidelity. We include both quantitative and qualitative experiments to show that Reward Forcing achieves state-of-the-art performance on standard benchmarks while enabling high-quality streaming video generation at 23.1 FPS on a single H100 GPU.

Recent streaming video understanding methods increasingly rely on complex memory mechanisms to handle long video streams. We challenge this trend with a simple finding: a sliding-window baseline that feeds only the most recent N frames to an off-the-shelf VLM already matches or surpasses published streaming models. We formalize this baseline as SimpleStream and evaluate it against 13 major offline and online video LLM baselines on OVO-Bench and StreamingBench. Despite its simplicity, SimpleStream delivers consistently strong performance. With only 4 recent frames, it reaches 67.7% average accuracy on OVO-Bench and 80.59% on StreamingBench. Controlled ablations further show that the value of longer context is backbone-dependent rather than uniformly increasing with model scale, and reveal a consistent perception-memory trade-off: adding more historical context can improve recall, but often weakens real-time perception. This suggests that stronger memory, retrieval, or compression modules should not be taken as evidence of progress unless they clearly outperform SimpleStream under the same protocol. We therefore argue that future streaming benchmarks should separate recent-scene perception from long-range memory, so that performance improvements from added complexity can be evaluated more clearly.

While Contrastive Language-Image Pre-training (CLIP) has advanced open-vocabulary predictions, its performance on semantic segmentation remains suboptimal. This shortfall primarily stems from its spatial-invariant semantic features and constrained resolution. While previous adaptations addressed spatial invariance semantic by modifying the self-attention in CLIP's image encoder, the issue of limited resolution remains unexplored. Different from previous segment-then-splice methods that segment sub-images via a sliding window and splice the results, we introduce a splice-then-segment paradigm that incorporates Segment-Anything Model (SAM) to tackle the resolution issue since SAM excels at extracting fine-grained semantic correlations from high-resolution images. Specifically, we introduce Trident, a training-free framework that first splices features extracted by CLIP and DINO from sub-images, then leverages SAM's encoder to create a correlation matrix for global aggregation, enabling a broadened receptive field for effective segmentation. Besides, we propose a refinement strategy for CLIP's coarse segmentation outputs by transforming them into prompts for SAM, further enhancing the segmentation performance. Trident achieves a significant improvement in the mIoU across eight benchmarks compared with the current SOTA, increasing from 44.4 to 48.6.Code is available at https://github.com/YuHengsss/Trident.

State-of-the-art video object detection methods maintain a memory structure, either a sliding window or a memory queue, to enhance the current frame using attention mechanisms. However, we argue that these memory structures are not efficient or sufficient because of two implied operations: (1) concatenating all features in memory for enhancement, leading to a heavy computational cost; (2) frame-wise memory updating, preventing the memory from capturing more temporal information. In this paper, we propose a multi-level aggregation architecture via memory bank called MAMBA. Specifically, our memory bank employs two novel operations to eliminate the disadvantages of existing methods: (1) light-weight key-set construction which can significantly reduce the computational cost; (2) fine-grained feature-wise updating strategy which enables our method to utilize knowledge from the whole video. To better enhance features from complementary levels, i.e., feature maps and proposals, we further propose a generalized enhancement operation (GEO) to aggregate multi-level features in a unified manner. We conduct extensive evaluations on the challenging ImageNetVID dataset. Compared with existing state-of-the-art methods, our method achieves superior performance in terms of both speed and accuracy. More remarkably, MAMBA achieves mAP of 83.7/84.6% at 12.6/9.1 FPS with ResNet-101. Code is available at https://github.com/guanxiongsun/video_feature_enhancement.

This paper focuses on temporal localization of actions in untrimmed videos. Existing methods typically train classifiers for a pre-defined list of actions and apply them in a sliding window fashion. However, activities in the wild consist of a wide combination of actors, actions and objects; it is difficult to design a proper activity list that meets users' needs. We propose to localize activities by natural language queries. Temporal Activity Localization via Language (TALL) is challenging as it requires: (1) suitable design of text and video representations to allow cross-modal matching of actions and language queries; (2) ability to locate actions accurately given features from sliding windows of limited granularity. We propose a novel Cross-modal Temporal Regression Localizer (CTRL) to jointly model text query and video clips, output alignment scores and action boundary regression results for candidate clips. For evaluation, we adopt TaCoS dataset, and build a new dataset for this task on top of Charades by adding sentence temporal annotations, called Charades-STA. We also build complex sentence queries in Charades-STA for test. Experimental results show that CTRL outperforms previous methods significantly on both datasets.

Autoregressive (AR) video diffusion enables variable-length synthesis, but long-horizon generation often suffers from accumulated errors and identity drift. For efficiency, existing methods commonly adopt sliding-window attention during generation. This creates an irreversible generation trajectory: once the active window accumulates appearance errors, subsequent generations can only condition on this degraded trajectory and drift further away. We address this limitation by formulating long video generation as a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) problem. Rather than relying solely on the recent window, we treat previously generated latents as a dynamic, searchable history. We propose LongLive-RAG, a general retrieval framework for AR video generation. At each new block, LongLive-RAG uses a query embedding to retrieve relevant historical latents. This lightweight retrieval step adds only a small overhead relative to generation and lets the generator condition on non-local context instead of only the recent window. To make retrieval more discriminative, we introduce the Window Temporal Delta Loss that suppresses redundant local similarity and encourages embeddings to capture meaningful temporal changes. Together, these components help reduce error accumulation caused by sliding-window attention. Experiments across multiple AR backbones and generation lengths show improved long-video quality and the best average VBench-Long rank. To our knowledge, among open-ended AR long video generation methods, LongLive-RAG is the first to formulate self-generated latent history as content-addressable retrieval memory. Code is available at https://github.com/qixinhu11/LongLive-RAG.

Sliding Window Sum algorithms have been successfully used for training and inference of Deep Neural Networks. We have shown before how both pooling and convolution 1-D primitives could be expressed as sliding sums and evaluated by the compute kernels with a shared structure. In this paper, we present an extensive study of the Sliding Window convolution technique as a more efficient alternative to the commonly used General Matrix Multiplication (GEMM) based convolution in Deep Neural Networks (DNNs). The Sliding Window technique addresses the memory bloating problem and demonstrates a significant speedup in 2-D convolution. We explore the performance of this technique on a range of implementations, including custom kernels for specific filter sizes. Our results suggest that the Sliding Window computation kernels can outperform GEMM-based convolution on a CPU and even on dedicated hardware accelerators. This could promote a wider adoption of AI on low-power and low-memory devices without the need for specialized hardware. We also discuss the compatibility of model compression methods and optimized network architectures with the Sliding Window technique, encouraging further research in these areas.

Recent advances in video super-resolution have shown that convolutional neural networks combined with motion compensation are able to merge information from multiple low-resolution (LR) frames to generate high-quality images. Current state-of-the-art methods process a batch of LR frames to generate a single high-resolution (HR) frame and run this scheme in a sliding window fashion over the entire video, effectively treating the problem as a large number of separate multi-frame super-resolution tasks. This approach has two main weaknesses: 1) Each input frame is processed and warped multiple times, increasing the computational cost, and 2) each output frame is estimated independently conditioned on the input frames, limiting the system's ability to produce temporally consistent results. In this work, we propose an end-to-end trainable frame-recurrent video super-resolution framework that uses the previously inferred HR estimate to super-resolve the subsequent frame. This naturally encourages temporally consistent results and reduces the computational cost by warping only one image in each step. Furthermore, due to its recurrent nature, the proposed method has the ability to assimilate a large number of previous frames without increased computational demands. Extensive evaluations and comparisons with previous methods validate the strengths of our approach and demonstrate that the proposed framework is able to significantly outperform the current state of the art.

Large Language Models (LLMs) face efficiency bottlenecks due to the quadratic complexity of the attention mechanism when processing long contexts. Sparse attention methods offer a promising solution, but existing approaches often suffer from incomplete effective context and/or require complex implementation of pipeline. We present a comprehensive analysis of sparse attention for autoregressive LLMs from the respective of receptive field, recognize the suboptimal nature of existing methods for expanding the receptive field, and introduce PowerAttention, a novel sparse attention design that facilitates effective and complete context extension through the theoretical analysis. PowerAttention achieves exponential receptive field growth in d-layer LLMs, allowing each output token to attend to 2^d tokens, ensuring completeness and continuity of the receptive field. Experiments demonstrate that PowerAttention outperforms existing static sparse attention methods by 5sim 40%, especially on tasks demanding long-range dependencies like Passkey Retrieval and RULER, while maintaining a comparable time complexity to sliding window attention. Efficiency evaluations further highlight PowerAttention's superior speedup in both prefilling and decoding phases compared with dynamic sparse attentions and full attention (3.0times faster on 128K context), making it a highly effective and user-friendly solution for processing long sequences in LLMs.

Recent advances in large language models (LLMs) have showcased exceptional performance in long-context tasks, while facing significant inference efficiency challenges with limited GPU memory. Existing solutions first proposed the sliding-window approach to accumulate a set of historical key-value (KV) pairs for reuse, then further improvements selectively retain its subsets at each step. However, due to the sparse attention distribution across a long context, it is hard to identify and recall relevant KV pairs, as the attention is distracted by massive candidate pairs. Additionally, we found it promising to select representative tokens as probe-Query in each sliding window to effectively represent the entire context, which is an approach overlooked by existing methods. Thus, we propose ActQKV, a training-free, Activation-aware approach that dynamically determines probe-Query and leverages it to retrieve the relevant KV pairs for inference. Specifically, ActQKV monitors a token-level indicator, Activation Bias, within each context window, enabling the proper construction of probe-Query for retrieval at pre-filling stage. To accurately recall the relevant KV pairs and minimize the irrelevant ones, we design a dynamic KV cut-off mechanism guided by information density across layers at the decoding stage. Experiments on the Long-Bench and infty Benchmarks demonstrate its state-of-the-art performance with competitive inference quality and resource efficiency.

This paper revisits visual representation in knowledge-based visual question answering (VQA) and demonstrates that using regional information in a better way can significantly improve the performance. While visual representation is extensively studied in traditional VQA, it is under-explored in knowledge-based VQA even though these two tasks share the common spirit, i.e., rely on visual input to answer the question. Specifically, we observe that in most state-of-the-art knowledge-based VQA methods: 1) visual features are extracted either from the whole image or in a sliding window manner for retrieving knowledge, and the important relationship within/among object regions is neglected; 2) visual features are not well utilized in the final answering model, which is counter-intuitive to some extent. Based on these observations, we propose a new knowledge-based VQA method REVIVE, which tries to utilize the explicit information of object regions not only in the knowledge retrieval stage but also in the answering model. The key motivation is that object regions and inherent relationship are important for knowledge-based VQA. We perform extensive experiments on the standard OK-VQA dataset and achieve new state-of-the-art performance, i.e., 58.0% accuracy, surpassing previous state-of-the-art method by a large margin (+3.6%). We also conduct detailed analysis and show the necessity of regional information in different framework components for knowledge-based VQA. Code is publicly available at https://github.com/yzleroy/REVIVE.

Training-free open-vocabulary semantic segmentation(TF-OVSS) has recently attracted attention for its ability to perform dense prediction by leveraging the pretrained knowledge of large vision and vision-language models, without requiring additional training. However, due to the limited input resolution of these pretrained encoders, existing TF-OVSS methods commonly adopt a sliding-window strategy that processes cropped sub-images independently. While effective for managing high-resolution inputs, this approach prevents global attention over the full image, leading to fragmented feature representations and limited contextual reasoning. We propose OV-Stitcher, a training-free framework that addresses this limitation by stitching fragmented sub-image features directly within the final encoder block. By reconstructing attention representations from fragmented sub-image features, OV-Stitcher enables global attention within the final encoder block, producing coherent context aggregation and spatially consistent, semantically aligned segmentation maps. Extensive evaluations across eight benchmarks demonstrate that OV-Stitcher establishes a scalable and effective solution for open-vocabulary segmentation, achieving a notable improvement in mean Intersection over Union(mIoU) from 48.7 to 50.7 compared with prior training-free baselines.

In modern large language models (LLMs), increasing sequence lengths is a crucial challenge for enhancing their comprehension and coherence in handling complex tasks such as multi-modal question answering. However, handling long context sequences with LLMs is prohibitively costly due to the conventional attention mechanism's quadratic time and space complexity, and the context window size is limited by the GPU memory. Although recent works have proposed linear and sparse attention mechanisms to address this issue, their real-world applicability is often limited by the need to re-train pre-trained models. In response, we propose a novel approach, Hierarchically Pruned Attention (HiP), which simultaneously reduces the training and inference time complexity from O(T^2) to O(T log T) and the space complexity from O(T^2) to O(T). To this end, we devise a dynamic sparse attention mechanism that generates an attention mask through a novel tree-search-like algorithm for a given query on the fly. HiP is training-free as it only utilizes the pre-trained attention scores to spot the positions of the top-k most significant elements for each query. Moreover, it ensures that no token is overlooked, unlike the sliding window-based sub-quadratic attention methods, such as StreamingLLM. Extensive experiments on diverse real-world benchmarks demonstrate that HiP significantly reduces prompt (i.e., prefill) and decoding latency and memory usage while maintaining high generation performance with little or no degradation. As HiP allows pretrained LLMs to scale to millions of tokens on commodity GPUs with no additional engineering due to its easy plug-and-play deployment, we believe that our work will have a large practical impact, opening up the possibility to many long-context LLM applications previously infeasible.

More and more, data is being produced in a streaming fashion. This has led to increased interest into how actionable insights can be extracted in real time from data streams through Stream Reasoning. Reasoning over data streams raises multiple challenges, notably the high velocity of data, the real time requirement of the reasoning, and the noisy and volatile nature of streams. This paper proposes novel semantics for incremental reasoning over streams of Description Logic ABoxes, in order to tackle these challenges. To address the first two challenges, our semantics for reasoning over sliding windows on streams allow for incrementally computing the materialization of the window based on the materialization of the previous window. Furthermore, to deal with the volatile nature of streams, we present novel semantics for inconsistency repair on such windows, based on preferred repair semantics. We then detail our proposed semi-naive algorithms for incremental materialization maintenance in the case of OWL2 RL, both in the presence of inconsistencies and without.

Long-term forecasting presents unique challenges due to the time and memory complexity of handling long sequences. Existing methods, which rely on sliding windows to process long sequences, struggle to effectively capture long-term variations that are partially caught within the short window (i.e., outer-window variations). In this paper, we introduce a novel approach that overcomes this limitation by employing contrastive learning and enhanced decomposition architecture, specifically designed to focus on long-term variations. To this end, our contrastive loss incorporates global autocorrelation held in the whole time series, which facilitates the construction of positive and negative pairs in a self-supervised manner. When combined with our decomposition networks, our contrastive learning significantly improves long-term forecasting performance. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our approach outperforms 14 baseline models in multiple experiments over nine long-term benchmarks, especially in challenging scenarios that require a significantly long output for forecasting. Source code is available at https://github.com/junwoopark92/Self-Supervised-Contrastive-Forecsating.

As with any physical instrument, hyperspectral cameras induce different kinds of noise in the acquired data. Therefore, Hyperspectral denoising is a crucial step for analyzing hyperspectral images (HSIs). Conventional computational methods rarely use GPUs to improve efficiency and are not fully open-source. Alternatively, deep learning-based methods are often open-source and use GPUs, but their training and utilization for real-world applications remain non-trivial for many researchers. Consequently, we propose HyDe: the first open-source, GPU-accelerated Python-based, hyperspectral image denoising toolbox, which aims to provide a large set of methods with an easy-to-use environment. HyDe includes a variety of methods ranging from low-rank wavelet-based methods to deep neural network (DNN) models. HyDe's interface dramatically improves the interoperability of these methods and the performance of the underlying functions. In fact, these methods maintain similar HSI denoising performance to their original implementations while consuming nearly ten times less energy. Furthermore, we present a method for training DNNs for denoising HSIs which are not spatially related to the training dataset, i.e., training on ground-level HSIs for denoising HSIs with other perspectives including airborne, drone-borne, and space-borne. To utilize the trained DNNs, we show a sliding window method to effectively denoise HSIs which would otherwise require more than 40 GB. The package can be found at: https://github.com/Helmholtz-AI-Energy/HyDe.

Recent years have witnessed considerable achievements in facial avatar reconstruction with neural volume rendering. Despite notable advancements, the reconstruction of complex and dynamic head movements from monocular videos still suffers from capturing and restoring fine-grained details. In this work, we propose a novel approach, named Tri^2-plane, for monocular photo-realistic volumetric head avatar reconstructions. Distinct from the existing works that rely on a single tri-plane deformation field for dynamic facial modeling, the proposed Tri^2-plane leverages the principle of feature pyramids and three top-to-down lateral connections tri-planes for details improvement. It samples and renders facial details at multiple scales, transitioning from the entire face to specific local regions and then to even more refined sub-regions. Moreover, we incorporate a camera-based geometry-aware sliding window method as an augmentation in training, which improves the robustness beyond the canonical space, with a particular improvement in cross-identity generation capabilities. Experimental outcomes indicate that the Tri^2-plane not only surpasses existing methodologies but also achieves superior performance across quantitative and qualitative assessments. The project website is: https://songluchuan.github.io/Tri2Plane.github.io/.

We investigate the problem of automatically placing an object into a background image for image compositing. Given a background image and a segmented object, the goal is to train a model to predict plausible placements (location and scale) of the object for compositing. The quality of the composite image highly depends on the predicted location/scale. Existing works either generate candidate bounding boxes or apply sliding-window search using global representations from background and object images, which fail to model local information in background images. However, local clues in background images are important to determine the compatibility of placing the objects with certain locations/scales. In this paper, we propose to learn the correlation between object features and all local background features with a transformer module so that detailed information can be provided on all possible location/scale configurations. A sparse contrastive loss is further proposed to train our model with sparse supervision. Our new formulation generates a 3D heatmap indicating the plausibility of all location/scale combinations in one network forward pass, which is over 10 times faster than the previous sliding-window method. It also supports interactive search when users provide a pre-defined location or scale. The proposed method can be trained with explicit annotation or in a self-supervised manner using an off-the-shelf inpainting model, and it outperforms state-of-the-art methods significantly. The user study shows that the trained model generalizes well to real-world images with diverse challenging scenes and object categories.

Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) enhances large language models (LLMs) by incorporating retrieved information. Standard retrieval process prioritized relevance, focusing on topical alignment between queries and passages. In contrast, in RAG, the emphasis has shifted to utility, which considers the usefulness of passages for generating accurate answers. Despite empirical evidence showing the benefits of utility-based retrieval in RAG, the high computational cost of using LLMs for utility judgments limits the number of passages evaluated. This restriction is problematic for complex queries requiring extensive information. To address this, we propose a method to distill the utility judgment capabilities of LLMs into smaller, more efficient models. Our approach focuses on utility-based selection rather than ranking, enabling dynamic passage selection tailored to specific queries without the need for fixed thresholds. We train student models to learn pseudo-answer generation and utility judgments from teacher LLMs, using a sliding window method that dynamically selects useful passages. Our experiments demonstrate that utility-based selection provides a flexible and cost-effective solution for RAG, significantly reducing computational costs while improving answer quality. We present the distillation results using Qwen3-32B as the teacher model for both relevance ranking and utility-based selection, distilled into RankQwen1.7B and UtilityQwen1.7B. Our findings indicate that for complex questions, utility-based selection is more effective than relevance ranking in enhancing answer generation performance. We will release the relevance ranking and utility-based selection annotations for the MS MARCO dataset, supporting further research in this area.

Face reenactment methods attempt to restore and re-animate portrait videos as realistically as possible. Existing methods face a dilemma in quality versus controllability: 2D GAN-based methods achieve higher image quality but suffer in fine-grained control of facial attributes compared with 3D counterparts. In this work, we propose StyleAvatar, a real-time photo-realistic portrait avatar reconstruction method using StyleGAN-based networks, which can generate high-fidelity portrait avatars with faithful expression control. We expand the capabilities of StyleGAN by introducing a compositional representation and a sliding window augmentation method, which enable faster convergence and improve translation generalization. Specifically, we divide the portrait scenes into three parts for adaptive adjustments: facial region, non-facial foreground region, and the background. Besides, our network leverages the best of UNet, StyleGAN and time coding for video learning, which enables high-quality video generation. Furthermore, a sliding window augmentation method together with a pre-training strategy are proposed to improve translation generalization and training performance, respectively. The proposed network can converge within two hours while ensuring high image quality and a forward rendering time of only 20 milliseconds. Furthermore, we propose a real-time live system, which further pushes research into applications. Results and experiments demonstrate the superiority of our method in terms of image quality, full portrait video generation, and real-time re-animation compared to existing facial reenactment methods. Training and inference code for this paper are at https://github.com/LizhenWangT/StyleAvatar.

The quadratic time and memory complexity of the attention mechanism in modern Transformer based video generators makes end-to-end training for ultra high resolution videos prohibitively expensive. Motivated by this limitation, we introduce a training-free approach that leverages video Diffusion Transformers pretrained at their native scale to synthesize higher resolution videos without any additional training or adaptation. At the core of our method lies an inward sliding window attention mechanism, which originates from a key observation: maintaining each query token's training scale receptive field is crucial for preserving visual fidelity and detail. However, naive local window attention, unfortunately, often leads to repetitive content and exhibits a lack of global coherence in the generated results. To overcome this challenge, we devise a dual-path pipeline that backs up window attention with a novel cross-attention override strategy, enabling the semantic content produced by local attention to be guided by another branch with a full receptive field and, therefore, ensuring holistic consistency. Furthermore, to improve efficiency, we incorporate a cross-attention caching strategy for this branch to avoid the frequent computation of full 3D attention. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method delivers ultra-high-resolution videos with fine-grained visual details and high efficiency in a training-free paradigm. Meanwhile, it achieves superior performance on VBench, even compared to training-based alternatives, with competitive or improved efficiency. Codes are available at: https://github.com/WillWu111/FreeSwim

Real-time talking avatar generation requires low latency and minute-level temporal stability. Autoregressive (AR) forcing enables streaming inference but suffers from exposure bias, which causes errors to accumulate and become irreversible over long rollouts. In contrast, full-sequence diffusion transformers mitigate drift but remain computationally prohibitive for real-time long-form synthesis. We present AvatarForcing, a one-step streaming diffusion framework that denoises a fixed local-future window with heterogeneous noise levels and emits one clean block per step under constant per-step cost. To stabilize unbounded streams, the method introduces dual-anchor temporal forcing: a style anchor that re-indexes RoPE to maintain a fixed relative position with respect to the active window and applies anchor-audio zero-padding, and a temporal anchor that reuses recently emitted clean blocks to ensure smooth transitions. Real-time one-step inference is enabled by two-stage streaming distillation with offline ODE backfill and distribution matching. Experiments on standard benchmarks and a new 400-video long-form benchmark show strong visual quality and lip synchronization at 34 ms/frame using a 1.3B-parameter student model for realtime streaming. Our page is available at: https://cuiliyuan121.github.io/AvatarForcing/

The rapid advancement of Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) and diffusion models has enabled the creation of highly realistic synthetic images, presenting significant societal risks, such as misinformation and deception. As a result, detecting AI-generated images has emerged as a critical challenge. Existing researches emphasize extracting fine-grained features to enhance detector generalization, yet they often lack consideration for the importance and interdependencies of internal elements within local regions and are limited to a single frequency domain, hindering the capture of general forgery traces. To overcome the aforementioned limitations, we first utilize a sliding window to restrict the attention mechanism to a local window, and reconstruct the features within the window to model the relationships between neighboring internal elements within the local region. Then, we design a dual frequency domain branch framework consisting of four frequency domain subbands of DWT and the phase part of FFT to enrich the extraction of local forgery features from different perspectives. Through feature enrichment of dual frequency domain branches and fine-grained feature extraction of reconstruction sliding window attention, our method achieves superior generalization detection capabilities on both GAN and diffusion model-based generative images. Evaluated on diverse datasets comprising images from 65 distinct generative models, our approach achieves a 2.13\% improvement in detection accuracy over state-of-the-art methods.

Recent advances in voice cloning and text-to-speech synthesis have made partial speech manipulation - where an adversary replaces a few words within an utterance to alter its meaning while preserving the speaker's identity - an increasingly realistic threat. Existing audio deepfake detection benchmarks focus on utterance-level binary classification or single-region tampering, leaving a critical gap in detecting and localizing multiple inpainted segments whose count is unknown a priori. We address this gap with three contributions. First, we introduce MIST (Multiregion Inpainting Speech Tampering), a large-scale multilingual dataset spanning 6 languages with 1-3 independently inpainted word-level segments per utterance, generated via LLM-guided semantic replacement and neural voice cloning, with fake content constituting only 2-7% of each utterance. Second, we propose ISA (Iterative Segment Analysis), a backbone-agnostic framework that performs coarse-to-fine sliding-window classification with gap-tolerant region proposal and boundary refinement to recover all tampered regions without prior knowledge of their count. Third, we define SF1@tau, a segment-level F1 metric based on temporal IoU matching that jointly evaluates region count accuracy and localization precision. Zero-shot evaluation reveals that partial inpainting at word granularity remains unsolved by existing deepfake detectors: utterance-level classifiers trained on fully synthesized speech assign near zero fake probability to MIST utterances where only 2-7% of content is manipulated. ISA consistently outperforms non-iterative baselines in this challenging setting, and the dataset, code, and evaluation toolkit are publicly released.

Long-sequence modeling faces a fundamental trade-off between the efficiency of compressive fixed-size memory in RNN-like models and the fidelity of lossless growing memory in attention-based Transformers. Inspired by the Multi-Store Model in cognitive science, we introduce a memory framework of artificial neural networks. Our method maintains a sliding window of the Transformer's KV cache as lossless short-term memory, while a learnable module termed Artificial Hippocampus Network (AHN) recurrently compresses out-of-window information into a fixed-size compact long-term memory. To validate this framework, we instantiate AHNs using modern RNN-like architectures, including Mamba2, DeltaNet, and Gated DeltaNet. Extensive experiments on long-context benchmarks LV-Eval and InfiniteBench demonstrate that AHN-augmented models consistently outperform sliding window baselines and achieve performance comparable or even superior to full-attention models, while substantially reducing computational and memory requirements. For instance, augmenting the Qwen2.5-3B-Instruct with AHNs reduces inference FLOPs by 40.5% and memory cache by 74.0%, while improving its average score on LV-Eval (128k sequence length) from 4.41 to 5.88. Code is available at: https://github.com/ByteDance-Seed/AHN.

The quadratic cost of attention hinders the scalability of long-context LLMs, especially in resource-constrained settings. Existing static sparse methods such as sliding windows or global tokens utilizes the sparsity of attention to reduce the cost of attention, but poorly adapts to the content-dependent variations in attention due to their staticity. While previous work has proposed several dynamic approaches to improve flexibility, they still depend on predefined templates or heuristic mechanisms. Such strategies reduce generality and prune tokens that remain contextually important, limiting their accuracy across diverse tasks. To tackle these bottlenecks of existing methods for long-context modeling, we introduce Dynamic Hierarchical Sparse Attention (DHSA), a data-driven framework that dynamically predicts attention sparsity online without retraining. Our proposed DHSA adaptively segments sequences into variable-length chunks, then computes chunk representations by aggregating the token embeddings within each chunk. To avoid the bias introduced by varying chunk lengths, we apply length-normalized aggregation that scales the averaged embeddings by the square root of the chunk size. Finally, DHSA upsamples the chunk-level similarity scores to token level similarities to calculate importance scores that determine which token-level interactions should be preserved. Our experiments on Gemma2 with Needle-in-a-Haystack Test and LongBench show that DHSA matches dense attention in accuracy, while reducing prefill latency by 20-60% and peak memory usage by 35%. Compared to other representative baselines such as block sparse attention, DHSA achieves consistently higher accuracy (6-18% relative gains) with comparable or lower cost, offering an efficient and adaptable solution for long-context on-device LLMs.

Streaming TTS that receives streaming text is essential for interactive systems, yet this scheme faces two major challenges: unnatural prosody due to missing lookahead and long-form collapse due to unbounded context. We propose a prosodic-boundary-aware post-training strategy, adapting a pretrained LLM-based TTS model using weakly time-aligned data. Specifically, the model is adapted to learn early stopping at specified content boundaries when provided with limited future text. During inference, a sliding-window prompt carries forward previous text and speech tokens, ensuring bounded context and seamless concatenation. Evaluations show our method outperforms CosyVoice-Style interleaved baseline in both short and long-form scenarios. In long-text synthesis, especially, it achieves a 66.2% absolute reduction in word error rate (from 71.0% to 4.8%) and increases speaker and emotion similarity by 16.1% and 1.5% relatively, offering a robust solution for streaming TTS with incremental text.

The attention mechanism of a transformer has a quadratic complexity, leading to high inference costs and latency for long sequences. However, attention matrices are mostly sparse, which implies that many entries may be omitted from computation for efficient inference. Sparse attention inference methods aim to reduce this computational burden; however, they also come with a troublesome performance degradation. We discover that one reason for this degradation is that the sparse calculation induces a distributional shift in the attention outputs. The distributional shift causes decoding-time queries to fail to align well with the appropriate keys from the prefill stage, leading to a drop in performance. We propose a simple, novel, and effective procedure for correcting this distributional shift, bringing the distribution of sparse attention outputs closer to that of quadratic attention. Our method can be applied on top of any sparse attention method, and results in an average 36%pt performance increase, recovering 88% of quadratic attention accuracy on the 131K RULER benchmark when applied on top of sliding window attention with sink tokens while only adding a small overhead. Our method can maintain approximately 98.5% sparsity over full quadratic attention, making our model 32 times faster than Flash Attention 2 when processing 1M token prefills.

Recent advancements in diffusion models have revolutionized video generation, enabling the creation of high-quality, temporally consistent videos. However, generating high frame-rate (FPS) videos remains a significant challenge due to issues such as flickering and degradation in long sequences, particularly in fast-motion scenarios. Existing methods often suffer from computational inefficiencies and limitations in maintaining video quality over extended frames. In this paper, we present a novel, training-free approach for high FPS video generation using pre-trained diffusion models. Our method, DiffuseSlide, introduces a new pipeline that leverages key frames from low FPS videos and applies innovative techniques, including noise re-injection and sliding window latent denoising, to achieve smooth, consistent video outputs without the need for additional fine-tuning. Through extensive experiments, we demonstrate that our approach significantly improves video quality, offering enhanced temporal coherence and spatial fidelity. The proposed method is not only computationally efficient but also adaptable to various video generation tasks, making it ideal for applications such as virtual reality, video games, and high-quality content creation.

Pruning large language models (LLMs) is a promising solution for reducing model sizes and computational complexity while preserving performance. Traditional layer-wise pruning methods often adopt a uniform sparsity approach across all layers, which leads to suboptimal performance due to the varying significance of individual transformer layers within the model not being accounted for. To this end, we propose the Shapley Value-based Non-Uniform Pruning (SV-NUP) method for LLMs. This approach quantifies the contribution of each transformer layer to the overall model performance, enabling the assignment of tailored pruning budgets to different layers to retain critical parameters. To further improve efficiency, we design the Sliding Window-based Shapley Value approximation method. It substantially reduces computational overhead compared to exact SV calculation methods. Extensive experiments on various LLMs including LLaMA-v1, LLaMA-v2 and OPT demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach. The results reveal that non-uniform pruning significantly enhances the performance of pruned models. Notably, SV-NUP achieves a reduction in perplexity (PPL) of 18.01% and 19.55% on LLaMA-7B and LLaMA-13B, respectively, compared to SparseGPT at 70% sparsity.

Multi-vector visual retrievers (e.g., ColPali-style late interaction models) deliver strong accuracy, but scale poorly because each page yields thousands of vectors, making indexing and search increasingly expensive. We present Visual RAG Toolkit, a practical system for scaling visual multi-vector retrieval with training-free, model-aware pooling and multi-stage retrieval. Motivated by Matryoshka Embeddings, our method performs static spatial pooling - including a lightweight sliding-window averaging variant - over patch embeddings to produce compact tile-level and global representations for fast candidate generation, followed by exact MaxSim reranking using full multi-vector embeddings. Our design yields a quadratic reduction in vector-to-vector comparisons by reducing stored vectors per page from thousands to dozens, notably without requiring post-training, adapters, or distillation. Across experiments with interaction-style models such as ColPali and ColSmol-500M, we observe that over the limited ViDoRe v2 benchmark corpus 2-stage retrieval typically preserves NDCG and Recall @ 5/10 with minimal degradation, while substantially improving throughput (approximately 4x QPS); with sensitivity mainly at very large k. The toolkit additionally provides robust preprocessing - high resolution PDF to image conversion, optional margin/empty-region cropping and token hygiene (indexing only visual tokens) - and a reproducible evaluation pipeline, enabling rapid exploration of two-, three-, and cascaded retrieval variants. By emphasizing efficiency at common cutoffs (e.g., k <= 10), the toolkit lowers hardware barriers and makes state-of-the-art visual retrieval more accessible in practice.

Accurate localization is an essential technology for the flexible navigation of robots in large-scale environments. Both SLAM-based and map-based localization will increase the computing load due to the increase in map size, which will affect downstream tasks such as robot navigation and services. To this end, we propose a localization system based on Block Maps (BMs) to reduce the computational load caused by maintaining large-scale maps. Firstly, we introduce a method for generating block maps and the corresponding switching strategies, ensuring that the robot can estimate the state in large-scale environments by loading local map information. Secondly, global localization according to Branch-and-Bound Search (BBS) in the 3D map is introduced to provide the initial pose. Finally, a graph-based optimization method is adopted with a dynamic sliding window that determines what factors are being marginalized whether a robot is exposed to a BM or switching to another one, which maintains the accuracy and efficiency of pose tracking. Comparison experiments are performed on publicly available large-scale datasets. Results show that the proposed method can track the robot pose even though the map scale reaches more than 6 kilometers, while efficient and accurate localization is still guaranteed on NCLT and M2DGR.

Video anomaly detection (VAD) is a challenging task aiming to recognize anomalies in video frames, and existing large-scale VAD researches primarily focus on road traffic and human activity scenes. In industrial scenes, there are often a variety of unpredictable anomalies, and the VAD method can play a significant role in these scenarios. However, there is a lack of applicable datasets and methods specifically tailored for industrial production scenarios due to concerns regarding privacy and security. To bridge this gap, we propose a new dataset, IPAD, specifically designed for VAD in industrial scenarios. The industrial processes in our dataset are chosen through on-site factory research and discussions with engineers. This dataset covers 16 different industrial devices and contains over 6 hours of both synthetic and real-world video footage. Moreover, we annotate the key feature of the industrial process, ie, periodicity. Based on the proposed dataset, we introduce a period memory module and a sliding window inspection mechanism to effectively investigate the periodic information in a basic reconstruction model. Our framework leverages LoRA adapter to explore the effective migration of pretrained models, which are initially trained using synthetic data, into real-world scenarios. Our proposed dataset and method will fill the gap in the field of industrial video anomaly detection and drive the process of video understanding tasks as well as smart factory deployment.

The advancement of Large Language Models (LLMs) has significantly transformed the field of natural language processing, although the focus on English-centric models has created a noticeable research gap for specific languages, including Vietnamese. To address this issue, this paper presents vi-mistral-x, an innovative Large Language Model designed expressly for the Vietnamese language. It utilizes a unique method of continual pre-training, based on the Mistral architecture, which incorporates grouped-query attention and sliding window attention techniques. This model, vi-Mistral-X, marks a significant step forward in improving the understanding and generation of the Vietnamese language. It introduces an additional phase of continual pre-training, specifically adapted for Vietnamese, enhancing the model's capability in understanding complex language nuances and generating accurate, context-aware Vietnamese text. Through comprehensive testing on various benchmarks, vi-mistral-x has shown to outperform existing Vietnamese LLMs in several key areas, including text classification, question answering, and text generation. Particularly, in the Vietnamese Multitask Language Understanding (VMLU) benchmark, vi-mistral-x sets a new standard, outperforming other available models significantly. This paper highlights the critical role of continual pre-training in advancing language-specific LLMs and opens new avenues for the development of multilingual models. We aim for vi-mistral-x to not just be an important asset for processing the Vietnamese language but also to encourage more advancements in creating large language models for languages that are less represented.

Named Entity Recognition (NER) is a fundamental problem in natural language processing (NLP). However, the task of extracting longer entity spans (e.g., awards) from extended texts (e.g., homepages) is barely explored. Current NER methods predominantly fall into two categories: span-based methods and generation-based methods. Span-based methods require the enumeration of all possible token-pair spans, followed by classification on each span, resulting in substantial redundant computations and excessive GPU memory usage. In contrast, generation-based methods involve prompting or fine-tuning large language models (LLMs) to adapt to downstream NER tasks. However, these methods struggle with the accurate generation of longer spans and often incur significant time costs for effective fine-tuning. To address these challenges, this paper introduces a lightweight span-based NER method called SeNER, which incorporates a bidirectional arrow attention mechanism coupled with LogN-Scaling on the [CLS] token to embed long texts effectively, and comprises a novel bidirectional sliding-window plus-shaped attention (BiSPA) mechanism to reduce redundant candidate token-pair spans significantly and model interactions between token-pair spans simultaneously. Extensive experiments demonstrate that our method achieves state-of-the-art extraction accuracy on three long NER datasets and is capable of extracting entities from long texts in a GPU-memory-friendly manner. Code: https://github.com/THUDM/scholar-profiling/tree/main/sener

There is large consent that successful training of deep networks requires many thousand annotated training samples. In this paper, we present a network and training strategy that relies on the strong use of data augmentation to use the available annotated samples more efficiently. The architecture consists of a contracting path to capture context and a symmetric expanding path that enables precise localization. We show that such a network can be trained end-to-end from very few images and outperforms the prior best method (a sliding-window convolutional network) on the ISBI challenge for segmentation of neuronal structures in electron microscopic stacks. Using the same network trained on transmitted light microscopy images (phase contrast and DIC) we won the ISBI cell tracking challenge 2015 in these categories by a large margin. Moreover, the network is fast. Segmentation of a 512x512 image takes less than a second on a recent GPU. The full implementation (based on Caffe) and the trained networks are available at http://lmb.informatik.uni-freiburg.de/people/ronneber/u-net .

Transformers today still struggle to generate one-minute videos because self-attention layers are inefficient for long context. Alternatives such as Mamba layers struggle with complex multi-scene stories because their hidden states are less expressive. We experiment with Test-Time Training (TTT) layers, whose hidden states themselves can be neural networks, therefore more expressive. Adding TTT layers into a pre-trained Transformer enables it to generate one-minute videos from text storyboards. For proof of concept, we curate a dataset based on Tom and Jerry cartoons. Compared to baselines such as Mamba~2, Gated DeltaNet, and sliding-window attention layers, TTT layers generate much more coherent videos that tell complex stories, leading by 34 Elo points in a human evaluation of 100 videos per method. Although promising, results still contain artifacts, likely due to the limited capability of the pre-trained 5B model. The efficiency of our implementation can also be improved. We have only experimented with one-minute videos due to resource constraints, but the approach can be extended to longer videos and more complex stories. Sample videos, code and annotations are available at: https://test-time-training.github.io/video-dit

In this paper, we propose and design a new task called audio moment retrieval (AMR). Unlike conventional language-based audio retrieval tasks that search for short audio clips from an audio database, AMR aims to predict relevant moments in untrimmed long audio based on a text query. Given the lack of prior work in AMR, we first build a dedicated dataset, Clotho-Moment, consisting of large-scale simulated audio recordings with moment annotations. We then propose a DETR-based model, named Audio Moment DETR (AM-DETR), as a fundamental framework for AMR tasks. This model captures temporal dependencies within audio features, inspired by similar video moment retrieval tasks, thus surpassing conventional clip-level audio retrieval methods. Additionally, we provide manually annotated datasets to properly measure the effectiveness and robustness of our methods on real data. Experimental results show that AM-DETR, trained with Clotho-Moment, outperforms a baseline model that applies a clip-level audio retrieval method with a sliding window on all metrics, particularly improving Recall1@0.7 by 9.00 points. Our datasets and code are publicly available in https://h-munakata.github.io/Language-based-Audio-Moment-Retrieval.

The optimization of long-horizon agents increasingly relies on reflection-based mechanisms, where a large language model (LLM) acts as an optimizer to diagnose agent failures and improve agent policies. However, real execution traces are difficult to use directly for optimization: large trace collections are often redundant and heterogeneous, making optimization inefficient and prone to overfitting to low-value failures; meanwhile, each individual trajectory also contains many irrelevant steps, while naive context reduction methods such as truncation or sliding windows can discard causally important evidence and produce misleading optimization signals. To resolve this dilemma, we introduce STRACE (Structural TRajectory Analysis and Causal Extraction), a framework that constructs high signal-noise optimization contexts for more precise and effective optimization. At the batch level, STRACE mines failure patterns to filter redundant traces and retain representative failures; within each selected trace, it performs causal localization over a textual dependency graph to remove non-causal steps and identify the true root-cause module for optimization. Empirical results demonstrate that STRACE significantly outperforms standard context-filtering baselines. Notably, on a challenging formal verification task (VeruSAGE-Bench), it successfully optimizes human-expert designed agents, delivering 1.4times success-rate improvement (42.5% to 58.5%). The code is available at https://github.com/moomight/STRACE .

Diffusion models have recently been increasingly applied to temporal data such as video, fluid mechanics simulations, or climate data. These methods generally treat subsequent frames equally regarding the amount of noise in the diffusion process. This paper explores Rolling Diffusion: a new approach that uses a sliding window denoising process. It ensures that the diffusion process progressively corrupts through time by assigning more noise to frames that appear later in a sequence, reflecting greater uncertainty about the future as the generation process unfolds. Empirically, we show that when the temporal dynamics are complex, Rolling Diffusion is superior to standard diffusion. In particular, this result is demonstrated in a video prediction task using the Kinetics-600 video dataset and in a chaotic fluid dynamics forecasting experiment.

This paper investigates the global convergence of stepsized Newton methods for convex functions. We propose several simple stepsize schedules with fast global convergence guarantees, up to O (k^{-3}), nearly matching lower complexity bounds Omega (k^{-3.5}) of second-order methods. For cases with multiple plausible smoothness parameterizations or an unknown smoothness constant, we introduce a stepsize backtracking procedure that ensures convergence as if the optimal smoothness parameters were known.

In this paper, we study a class of composite optimization problems whose objective function is given by the summation of a general smooth and nonsmooth component, together with a relatively simple nonsmooth term. While restart strategies are commonly employed in first-order methods to achieve optimal convergence under strong convexity, they introduce structural complexity and practical overhead, making algorithm design and nesting cumbersome. To address this, we propose a restart-free stochastic gradient sliding algorithm that eliminates the need for explicit restart phases when the simple nonsmooth component is strongly convex. Through a novel and carefully designed parameter selection strategy, we prove that the proposed algorithm achieves an ε-solution with only O(log(1ε)) gradient evaluations for the smooth component and O(1ε) stochastic subgradient evaluations for the nonsmooth component, matching the optimal complexity of existing multi-phase (restart-based) methods. Moreover, for the case where the nonsmooth component is structured, allowing the overall problem to be reformulated as a bilinear saddle-point problem, we develop a restart-free accelerated stochastic gradient sliding algorithm. We show that the resulting method requires only O(log(1ε)) gradient computations for the smooth component while preserving an overall iteration complexity of O(1{sqrtε}) for solving the corresponding saddle-point problems. Our work thus provides simpler, restart-f

Efficiently approximating local curvature information of the loss function is a key tool for optimization and compression of deep neural networks. Yet, most existing methods to approximate second-order information have high computational or storage costs, which can limit their practicality. In this work, we investigate matrix-free, linear-time approaches for estimating Inverse-Hessian Vector Products (IHVPs) for the case when the Hessian can be approximated as a sum of rank-one matrices, as in the classic approximation of the Hessian by the empirical Fisher matrix. We propose two new algorithms as part of a framework called M-FAC: the first algorithm is tailored towards network compression and can compute the IHVP for dimension d, if the Hessian is given as a sum of m rank-one matrices, using O(dm^2) precomputation, O(dm) cost for computing the IHVP, and query cost O(m) for any single element of the inverse Hessian. The second algorithm targets an optimization setting, where we wish to compute the product between the inverse Hessian, estimated over a sliding window of optimization steps, and a given gradient direction, as required for preconditioned SGD. We give an algorithm with cost O(dm + m^2) for computing the IHVP and O(dm + m^3) for adding or removing any gradient from the sliding window. These two algorithms yield state-of-the-art results for network pruning and optimization with lower computational overhead relative to existing second-order methods. Implementations are available at [9] and [17].

In this work, we propose KeRNS: an algorithm for episodic reinforcement learning in non-stationary Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) whose state-action set is endowed with a metric. Using a non-parametric model of the MDP built with time-dependent kernels, we prove a regret bound that scales with the covering dimension of the state-action space and the total variation of the MDP with time, which quantifies its level of non-stationarity. Our method generalizes previous approaches based on sliding windows and exponential discounting used to handle changing environments. We further propose a practical implementation of KeRNS, we analyze its regret and validate it experimentally.

We study Stochastic Gradient Descent with AdaGrad stepsizes: a popular adaptive (self-tuning) method for first-order stochastic optimization. Despite being well studied, existing analyses of this method suffer from various shortcomings: they either assume some knowledge of the problem parameters, impose strong global Lipschitz conditions, or fail to give bounds that hold with high probability. We provide a comprehensive analysis of this basic method without any of these limitations, in both the convex and non-convex (smooth) cases, that additionally supports a general ``affine variance'' noise model and provides sharp rates of convergence in both the low-noise and high-noise~regimes.

Generating continuous-time, continuous-space stochastic processes (e.g., videos, weather forecasts) conditioned on partial observations (e.g., first and last frames) is a fundamental challenge. Existing approaches, (e.g., diffusion models), suffer from key limitations: (1) noise-to-data evolution fails to capture structural similarity between states close in physical time and has unstable integration in low-step regimes; (2) random noise injected is insensitive to the physical process's time elapsed, resulting in incorrect dynamics; (3) they overlook conditioning on arbitrary subsets of states (e.g., irregularly sampled timesteps, future observations). We propose ABC: Any-Subset Autoregressive Models via Non-Markovian Diffusion Bridges in Continuous Time and Space. Crucially, we model the process with one continual SDE whose time variable and intermediate states track the real time and process states. This has provable advantages: (1) the starting point for generating future states is the already-close previous state, rather than uninformative noise; (2) random noise injection scales with physical time elapsed, encouraging physically plausible dynamics with similar time-adjacent states. We derive SDE dynamics via changes-of-measure on path space, yielding another advantage: (3) path-dependent conditioning on arbitrary subsets of the state history and/or future. To learn these dynamics, we derive a path- and time-dependent extension of denoising score matching. Our experiments show ABC's superiority to competing methods on multiple domains, including video generation and weather forecasting.

We present AI-SARAH, a practical variant of SARAH. As a variant of SARAH, this algorithm employs the stochastic recursive gradient yet adjusts step-size based on local geometry. AI-SARAH implicitly computes step-size and efficiently estimates local Lipschitz smoothness of stochastic functions. It is fully adaptive, tune-free, straightforward to implement, and computationally efficient. We provide technical insight and intuitive illustrations on its design and convergence. We conduct extensive empirical analysis and demonstrate its strong performance compared with its classical counterparts and other state-of-the-art first-order methods in solving convex machine learning problems.

General function approximation is a powerful tool to handle large state and action spaces in a broad range of reinforcement learning (RL) scenarios. However, theoretical understanding of non-stationary MDPs with general function approximation is still limited. In this paper, we make the first such an attempt. We first propose a new complexity metric called dynamic Bellman Eluder (DBE) dimension for non-stationary MDPs, which subsumes majority of existing tractable RL problems in static MDPs as well as non-stationary MDPs. Based on the proposed complexity metric, we propose a novel confidence-set based model-free algorithm called SW-OPEA, which features a sliding window mechanism and a new confidence set design for non-stationary MDPs. We then establish an upper bound on the dynamic regret for the proposed algorithm, and show that SW-OPEA is provably efficient as long as the variation budget is not significantly large. We further demonstrate via examples of non-stationary linear and tabular MDPs that our algorithm performs better in small variation budget scenario than the existing UCB-type algorithms. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first dynamic regret analysis in non-stationary MDPs with general function approximation.

Computing a Gaussian process (GP) posterior has a computational cost cubical in the number of historical points. A reformulation of the same GP posterior highlights that this complexity mainly depends on how many unique historical points are considered. This can have important implication in active learning settings, where the set of historical points is constructed sequentially by the learner. We show that sequential black-box optimization based on GPs (GP-Opt) can be made efficient by sticking to a candidate solution for multiple evaluation steps and switch only when necessary. Limiting the number of switches also limits the number of unique points in the history of the GP. Thus, the efficient GP reformulation can be used to exactly and cheaply compute the posteriors required to run the GP-Opt algorithms. This approach is especially useful in real-world applications of GP-Opt with high switch costs (e.g. switching chemicals in wet labs, data/model loading in hyperparameter optimization). As examples of this meta-approach, we modify two well-established GP-Opt algorithms, GP-UCB and GP-EI, to switch candidates as infrequently as possible adapting rules from batched GP-Opt. These versions preserve all the theoretical no-regret guarantees while improving practical aspects of the algorithms such as runtime, memory complexity, and the ability of batching candidates and evaluating them in parallel.

Online updating of time series forecasting models aims to address the concept drifting problem by efficiently updating forecasting models based on streaming data. Many algorithms are designed for online time series forecasting, with some exploiting cross-variable dependency while others assume independence among variables. Given every data assumption has its own pros and cons in online time series modeling, we propose Online ensembling Network (OneNet). It dynamically updates and combines two models, with one focusing on modeling the dependency across the time dimension and the other on cross-variate dependency. Our method incorporates a reinforcement learning-based approach into the traditional online convex programming framework, allowing for the linear combination of the two models with dynamically adjusted weights. OneNet addresses the main shortcoming of classical online learning methods that tend to be slow in adapting to the concept drift. Empirical results show that OneNet reduces online forecasting error by more than 50% compared to the State-Of-The-Art (SOTA) method. The code is available at https://github.com/yfzhang114/OneNet.

Any optimization algorithm programming interface can be seen as a black-box function with additional free parameters. In this spirit, simulated annealing (SA) can be implemented in pseudo-code within the dimensions of a single slide with free parameters relating to the annealing schedule. Such an implementation, however, necessarily neglects much of the structure necessary to take advantage of advances in computing resources and algorithmic breakthroughs. Simulated annealing is often introduced in myriad disciplines, from discrete examples like the Traveling Salesman Problem (TSP) to molecular cluster potential energy exploration or even explorations of a protein's configurational space. Theoretical guarantees also demand a stricter structure in terms of statistical quantities, which cannot simply be left to the user. We will introduce several standard paradigms and demonstrate how these can be "lifted" into a unified framework using object-oriented programming in Python. We demonstrate how clean, interoperable, reproducible programming libraries can be used to access and rapidly iterate on variants of Simulated Annealing in a manner which can be extended to serve as a best practices blueprint or design pattern for a data-driven optimization library.

Time series are generated in diverse domains such as economic, traffic, health, and energy, where forecasting of future values has numerous important applications. Not surprisingly, many forecasting methods are being proposed. To ensure progress, it is essential to be able to study and compare such methods empirically in a comprehensive and reliable manner. To achieve this, we propose TFB, an automated benchmark for Time Series Forecasting (TSF) methods. TFB advances the state-of-the-art by addressing shortcomings related to datasets, comparison methods, and evaluation pipelines: 1) insufficient coverage of data domains, 2) stereotype bias against traditional methods, and 3) inconsistent and inflexible pipelines. To achieve better domain coverage, we include datasets from 10 different domains: traffic, electricity, energy, the environment, nature, economic, stock markets, banking, health, and the web. We also provide a time series characterization to ensure that the selected datasets are comprehensive. To remove biases against some methods, we include a diverse range of methods, including statistical learning, machine learning, and deep learning methods, and we also support a variety of evaluation strategies and metrics to ensure a more comprehensive evaluations of different methods. To support the integration of different methods into the benchmark and enable fair comparisons, TFB features a flexible and scalable pipeline that eliminates biases. Next, we employ TFB to perform a thorough evaluation of 21 Univariate Time Series Forecasting (UTSF) methods on 8,068 univariate time series and 14 Multivariate Time Series Forecasting (MTSF) methods on 25 datasets. The benchmark code and data are available at https://github.com/decisionintelligence/TFB. We have also launched an online time series leaderboard: https://decisionintelligence.github.io/OpenTS/OpenTS-Bench/.

Generating temporal data under conditions is crucial for forecasting, imputation, and generative tasks. Such data often has metadata and partially observed signals that jointly influence the generated values. However, existing methods face three key limitations: (1) they condition on either the metadata or observed values, but rarely both together; (2) they adopt either training-time approaches that fail to generalize to unseen scenarios, or inference-time approaches that ignore metadata; and (3) they suffer from trade-offs between generation speed and temporal coherence across time windows--choosing either slow but coherent autoregressive methods or fast but incoherent parallel ones. We propose WaveStitch, a novel diffusion-based method to overcome these hurdles through: (1) dual-sourced conditioning on both metadata and partially observed signals; (2) a hybrid training-inference architecture, incorporating metadata during training and observations at inference via gradient-based guidance; and (3) a novel pipeline-style paradigm that generates time windows in parallel while preserving coherence through an inference-time conditional loss and a stitching mechanism. Across diverse datasets, WaveStitch demonstrates adaptability to arbitrary patterns of observed signals, achieving 1.81x lower mean-squared-error compared to the state-of-the-art, and generates data up to 166.48x faster than autoregressive methods while maintaining coherence. Our code is available at: https://github.com/adis98/WaveStitch

Several first order stochastic optimization methods commonly used in the Euclidean domain such as stochastic gradient descent (SGD), accelerated gradient descent or variance reduced methods have already been adapted to certain Riemannian settings. However, some of the most popular of these optimization tools - namely Adam , Adagrad and the more recent Amsgrad - remain to be generalized to Riemannian manifolds. We discuss the difficulty of generalizing such adaptive schemes to the most agnostic Riemannian setting, and then provide algorithms and convergence proofs for geodesically convex objectives in the particular case of a product of Riemannian manifolds, in which adaptivity is implemented across manifolds in the cartesian product. Our generalization is tight in the sense that choosing the Euclidean space as Riemannian manifold yields the same algorithms and regret bounds as those that were already known for the standard algorithms. Experimentally, we show faster convergence and to a lower train loss value for Riemannian adaptive methods over their corresponding baselines on the realistic task of embedding the WordNet taxonomy in the Poincare ball.

Generalized self-concordance is a key property present in the objective function of many important learning problems. We establish the convergence rate of a simple Frank-Wolfe variant that uses the open-loop step size strategy gamma_t = 2/(t+2), obtaining a O(1/t) convergence rate for this class of functions in terms of primal gap and Frank-Wolfe gap, where t is the iteration count. This avoids the use of second-order information or the need to estimate local smoothness parameters of previous work. We also show improved convergence rates for various common cases, e.g., when the feasible region under consideration is uniformly convex or polyhedral.

In a previous paper it was shown that a machine learning regression problem can be solved within the framework of random function theory, with the optimal kernel analytically derived from symmetry and indifference principles and coinciding with a polyharmonic spline. However, a direct application of that solution is limited by O(N^3) computational cost and by a breakdown of the original theoretical assumptions when the input space has excessive dimensionality. This paper proposes a cascade architecture built from packages of polyharmonic splines that simultaneously addresses scalability and is theoretically justified for problems with unknown intrinsic low dimensionality. Efficient matrix procedures are presented for forward computation and end-to-end differentiation through the cascade.

During recent years the interest of optimization and machine learning communities in high-probability convergence of stochastic optimization methods has been growing. One of the main reasons for this is that high-probability complexity bounds are more accurate and less studied than in-expectation ones. However, SOTA high-probability non-asymptotic convergence results are derived under strong assumptions such as the boundedness of the gradient noise variance or of the objective's gradient itself. In this paper, we propose several algorithms with high-probability convergence results under less restrictive assumptions. In particular, we derive new high-probability convergence results under the assumption that the gradient/operator noise has bounded central alpha-th moment for alpha in (1,2] in the following setups: (i) smooth non-convex / Polyak-Lojasiewicz / convex / strongly convex / quasi-strongly convex minimization problems, (ii) Lipschitz / star-cocoercive and monotone / quasi-strongly monotone variational inequalities. These results justify the usage of the considered methods for solving problems that do not fit standard functional classes studied in stochastic optimization.

Gaussian processes (GP) are a well studied Bayesian approach for the optimization of black-box functions. Despite their effectiveness in simple problems, GP-based algorithms hardly scale to high-dimensional functions, as their per-iteration time and space cost is at least quadratic in the number of dimensions d and iterations t. Given a set of A alternatives to choose from, the overall runtime O(t^3A) is prohibitive. In this paper we introduce BKB (budgeted kernelized bandit), a new approximate GP algorithm for optimization under bandit feedback that achieves near-optimal regret (and hence near-optimal convergence rate) with near-constant per-iteration complexity and remarkably no assumption on the input space or covariance of the GP. We combine a kernelized linear bandit algorithm (GP-UCB) with randomized matrix sketching based on leverage score sampling, and we prove that randomly sampling inducing points based on their posterior variance gives an accurate low-rank approximation of the GP, preserving variance estimates and confidence intervals. As a consequence, BKB does not suffer from variance starvation, an important problem faced by many previous sparse GP approximations. Moreover, we show that our procedure selects at most O(d_{eff}) points, where d_{eff} is the effective dimension of the explored space, which is typically much smaller than both d and t. This greatly reduces the dimensionality of the problem, thus leading to a O(TAd_{eff}^2) runtime and O(A d_{eff}) space complexity.

Temporal data such as time series can be viewed as discretized measurements of the underlying function. To build a generative model for such data we have to model the stochastic process that governs it. We propose a solution by defining the denoising diffusion model in the function space which also allows us to naturally handle irregularly-sampled observations. The forward process gradually adds noise to functions, preserving their continuity, while the learned reverse process removes the noise and returns functions as new samples. To this end, we define suitable noise sources and introduce novel denoising and score-matching models. We show how our method can be used for multivariate probabilistic forecasting and imputation, and how our model can be interpreted as a neural process.

Learning rate schedules used in practice bear little resemblance to those recommended by theory. We close much of this theory/practice gap, and as a consequence are able to derive new problem-adaptive learning rate schedules. Our key technical contribution is a refined analysis of learning rate schedules for a wide class of optimization algorithms (including SGD). In contrast to most prior works that study the convergence of the average iterate, we study the last iterate, which is what most people use in practice. When considering only worst-case analysis, our theory predicts that the best choice is the linear decay schedule: a popular choice in practice that sets the stepsize proportionally to 1 - t/T, where t is the current iteration and T is the total number of steps. To go beyond this worst-case analysis, we use the observed gradient norms to derive schedules refined for any particular task. These refined schedules exhibit learning rate warm-up and rapid learning rate annealing near the end of training. Ours is the first systematic approach to automatically yield both of these properties. We perform the most comprehensive evaluation of learning rate schedules to date, evaluating across 10 diverse deep learning problems, a series of LLMs, and a suite of logistic regression problems. We validate that overall, the linear-decay schedule matches or outperforms all commonly used default schedules including cosine annealing, and that our schedule refinement method gives further improvements.

We propose a novel hierarchical Bayesian model for learning with a large (possibly infinite) number of tasks/episodes, which suits well the few-shot meta learning problem. We consider episode-wise random variables to model episode-specific target generative processes, where these local random variables are governed by a higher-level global random variate. The global variable helps memorize the important information from historic episodes while controlling how much the model needs to be adapted to new episodes in a principled Bayesian manner. Within our model framework, the prediction on a novel episode/task can be seen as a Bayesian inference problem. However, a main obstacle in learning with a large/infinite number of local random variables in online nature, is that one is not allowed to store the posterior distribution of the current local random variable for frequent future updates, typical in conventional variational inference. We need to be able to treat each local variable as a one-time iterate in the optimization. We propose a Normal-Inverse-Wishart model, for which we show that this one-time iterate optimization becomes feasible due to the approximate closed-form solutions for the local posterior distributions. The resulting algorithm is more attractive than the MAML in that it is not required to maintain computational graphs for the whole gradient optimization steps per episode. Our approach is also different from existing Bayesian meta learning methods in that unlike dealing with a single random variable for the whole episodes, our approach has a hierarchical structure that allows one-time episodic optimization, desirable for principled Bayesian learning with many/infinite tasks. The code is available at https://github.com/minyoungkim21/niwmeta.

This paper provides a non-asymptotic analysis of linear stochastic approximation (LSA) algorithms with fixed stepsize. This family of methods arises in many machine learning tasks and is used to obtain approximate solutions of a linear system Atheta = b for which A and b can only be accessed through random estimates {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*}. Our analysis is based on new results regarding moments and high probability bounds for products of matrices which are shown to be tight. We derive high probability bounds on the performance of LSA under weaker conditions on the sequence {({bf A}_n, {bf b}_n): n in N^*} than previous works. However, in contrast, we establish polynomial concentration bounds with order depending on the stepsize. We show that our conclusions cannot be improved without additional assumptions on the sequence of random matrices {{bf A}_n: n in N^*}, and in particular that no Gaussian or exponential high probability bounds can hold. Finally, we pay a particular attention to establishing bounds with sharp order with respect to the number of iterations and the stepsize and whose leading terms contain the covariance matrices appearing in the central limit theorems.

Diffusion models offer a physically grounded framework for probabilistic weather forecasting, but their typical reliance on slow, iterative solvers during inference makes them impractical for subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) applications where long lead-times and domain-driven calibration are essential. To address this, we introduce Swift, a single-step consistency model that, for the first time, enables autoregressive finetuning of a probability flow model with a continuous ranked probability score (CRPS) objective. This eliminates the need for multi-model ensembling or parameter perturbations. Results show that Swift produces skillful 6-hourly forecasts that remain stable for up to 75 days, running 39times faster than state-of-the-art diffusion baselines while achieving forecast skill competitive with the numerical-based, operational IFS ENS. This marks a step toward efficient and reliable ensemble forecasting from medium-range to seasonal-scales.

This is a handbook of simple proofs of the convergence of gradient and stochastic gradient descent type methods. We consider functions that are Lipschitz, smooth, convex, strongly convex, and/or Polyak-{\L}ojasiewicz functions. Our focus is on ``good proofs'' that are also simple. Each section can be consulted separately. We start with proofs of gradient descent, then on stochastic variants, including minibatching and momentum. Then move on to nonsmooth problems with the subgradient method, the proximal gradient descent and their stochastic variants. Our focus is on global convergence rates and complexity rates. Some slightly less common proofs found here include that of SGD (Stochastic gradient descent) with a proximal step, with momentum, and with mini-batching without replacement.

Existing learning rate schedules that do not require specification of the optimization stopping step T are greatly out-performed by learning rate schedules that depend on T. We propose an approach that avoids the need for this stopping time by eschewing the use of schedules entirely, while exhibiting state-of-the-art performance compared to schedules across a wide family of problems ranging from convex problems to large-scale deep learning problems. Our Schedule-Free approach introduces no additional hyper-parameters over standard optimizers with momentum. Our method is a direct consequence of a new theory we develop that unifies scheduling and iterate averaging. An open source implementation of our method is available (https://github.com/facebookresearch/schedule_free).

This monograph presents the main complexity theorems in convex optimization and their corresponding algorithms. Starting from the fundamental theory of black-box optimization, the material progresses towards recent advances in structural optimization and stochastic optimization. Our presentation of black-box optimization, strongly influenced by Nesterov's seminal book and Nemirovski's lecture notes, includes the analysis of cutting plane methods, as well as (accelerated) gradient descent schemes. We also pay special attention to non-Euclidean settings (relevant algorithms include Frank-Wolfe, mirror descent, and dual averaging) and discuss their relevance in machine learning. We provide a gentle introduction to structural optimization with FISTA (to optimize a sum of a smooth and a simple non-smooth term), saddle-point mirror prox (Nemirovski's alternative to Nesterov's smoothing), and a concise description of interior point methods. In stochastic optimization we discuss stochastic gradient descent, mini-batches, random coordinate descent, and sublinear algorithms. We also briefly touch upon convex relaxation of combinatorial problems and the use of randomness to round solutions, as well as random walks based methods.

A key aspect of temporal domains is the ability to make predictions multiple time steps into the future, a process known as multi-step forecasting (MSF). At the core of this process is selecting a forecasting strategy, however, with no existing frameworks to map out the space of strategies, practitioners are left with ad-hoc methods for strategy selection. In this work, we propose Stratify, a parameterised framework that addresses multi-step forecasting, unifying existing strategies and introducing novel, improved strategies. We evaluate Stratify on 18 benchmark datasets, five function classes, and short to long forecast horizons (10, 20, 40, 80). In over 84% of 1080 experiments, novel strategies in Stratify improved performance compared to all existing ones. Importantly, we find that no single strategy consistently outperforms others in all task settings, highlighting the need for practitioners explore the Stratify space to carefully search and select forecasting strategies based on task-specific requirements. Our results are the most comprehensive benchmarking of known and novel forecasting strategies. We make code available to reproduce our results.

Recently, channel-independent methods have achieved state-of-the-art performance in multivariate time series (MTS) forecasting. Despite reducing overfitting risks, these methods miss potential opportunities in utilizing channel dependence for accurate predictions. We argue that there exist locally stationary lead-lag relationships between variates, i.e., some lagged variates may follow the leading indicators within a short time period. Exploiting such channel dependence is beneficial since leading indicators offer advance information that can be used to reduce the forecasting difficulty of the lagged variates. In this paper, we propose a new method named LIFT that first efficiently estimates leading indicators and their leading steps at each time step and then judiciously allows the lagged variates to utilize the advance information from leading indicators. LIFT plays as a plugin that can be seamlessly collaborated with arbitrary time series forecasting methods. Extensive experiments on six real-world datasets demonstrate that LIFT improves the state-of-the-art methods by 5.5% in average forecasting performance. Our code is available at https://github.com/SJTU-Quant/LIFT.

Recent works have revealed that infinitely-wide feed-forward or recurrent neural networks of any architecture correspond to Gaussian processes referred to as Neural Network Gaussian Processes (NNGPs). While these works have extended the class of neural networks converging to Gaussian processes significantly, however, there has been little focus on broadening the class of stochastic processes that such neural networks converge to. In this work, inspired by the scale mixture of Gaussian random variables, we propose the scale mixture of NNGPs for which we introduce a prior distribution on the scale of the last-layer parameters. We show that simply introducing a scale prior on the last-layer parameters can turn infinitely-wide neural networks of any architecture into a richer class of stochastic processes. With certain scale priors, we obtain heavy-tailed stochastic processes, and in the case of inverse gamma priors, we recover Student's t processes. We further analyze the distributions of the neural networks initialized with our prior setting and trained with gradient descents and obtain similar results as for NNGPs. We present a practical posterior-inference algorithm for the scale mixture of NNGPs and empirically demonstrate its usefulness on regression and classification tasks. In particular, we show that in both tasks, the heavy-tailed stochastic processes obtained from our framework are robust to out-of-distribution data.

This paper proposes a method for the automatic creation of variables (in the case of regression) that complement the information contained in the initial input vector. The method works as a pre-processing step in which the continuous values of the variable to be regressed are discretized into a set of intervals which are then used to define value thresholds. Then classifiers are trained to predict whether the value to be regressed is less than or equal to each of these thresholds. The different outputs of the classifiers are then concatenated in the form of an additional vector of variables that enriches the initial vector of the regression problem. The implemented system can thus be considered as a generic pre-processing tool. We tested the proposed enrichment method with 5 types of regressors and evaluated it in 33 regression datasets. Our experimental results confirm the interest of the approach.

Prompted models have demonstrated impressive few-shot learning abilities. Repeated interactions at test-time with a single model, or the composition of multiple models together, further expands capabilities. These compositions are probabilistic models, and may be expressed in the language of graphical models with random variables whose values are complex data types such as strings. Cases with control flow and dynamic structure require techniques from probabilistic programming, which allow implementing disparate model structures and inference strategies in a unified language. We formalize several existing techniques from this perspective, including scratchpads / chain of thought, verifiers, STaR, selection-inference, and tool use. We refer to the resulting programs as language model cascades.

We propose a reinforcement learning (RL) framework under a broad class of risk objectives, characterized by convex scoring functions. This class covers many common risk measures, such as variance, Expected Shortfall, entropic Value-at-Risk, and mean-risk utility. To resolve the time-inconsistency issue, we consider an augmented state space and an auxiliary variable and recast the problem as a two-state optimization problem. We propose a customized Actor-Critic algorithm and establish some theoretical approximation guarantees. A key theoretical contribution is that our results do not require the Markov decision process to be continuous. Additionally, we propose an auxiliary variable sampling method inspired by the alternating minimization algorithm, which is convergent under certain conditions. We validate our approach in simulation experiments with a financial application in statistical arbitrage trading, demonstrating the effectiveness of the algorithm.

We propose a new method for optimistic planning in infinite-horizon discounted Markov decision processes based on the idea of adding regularization to the updates of an otherwise standard approximate value iteration procedure. This technique allows us to avoid contraction and monotonicity arguments typically required by existing analyses of approximate dynamic programming methods, and in particular to use approximate transition functions estimated via least-squares procedures in MDPs with linear function approximation. We use our method to recover known guarantees in tabular MDPs and to provide a computationally efficient algorithm for learning near-optimal policies in discounted linear mixture MDPs from a single stream of experience, and show it achieves near-optimal statistical guarantees.

We study the problem of global maximization of a function f given a finite number of evaluations perturbed by noise. We consider a very weak assumption on the function, namely that it is locally smooth (in some precise sense) with respect to some semi-metric, around one of its global maxima. Compared to previous works on bandits in general spaces (Kleinberg et al., 2008; Bubeck et al., 2011a) our algorithm does not require the knowledge of this semi-metric. Our algorithm, StoSOO, follows an optimistic strategy to iteratively construct upper confidence bounds over the hierarchical partitions of the function domain to decide which point to sample next. A finite-time analysis of StoSOO shows that it performs almost as well as the best specifically-tuned algorithms even though the local smoothness of the function is not known.

In this work, we consider rather general and broad class of Markov chains, Ito chains, that look like Euler-Maryama discretization of some Stochastic Differential Equation. The chain we study is a unified framework for theoretical analysis. It comes with almost arbitrary isotropic and state-dependent noise instead of normal and state-independent one as in most related papers. Moreover, in our chain the drift and diffusion coefficient can be inexact in order to cover wide range of applications as Stochastic Gradient Langevin Dynamics, sampling, Stochastic Gradient Descent or Stochastic Gradient Boosting. We prove the bound in W_{2}-distance between the laws of our Ito chain and corresponding differential equation. These results improve or cover most of the known estimates. And for some particular cases, our analysis is the first.

Robust Markov decision processes (RMDPs) provide a promising framework for computing reliable policies in the face of model errors. Many successful reinforcement learning algorithms build on variations of policy-gradient methods, but adapting these methods to RMDPs has been challenging. As a result, the applicability of RMDPs to large, practical domains remains limited. This paper proposes a new Double-Loop Robust Policy Gradient (DRPG), the first generic policy gradient method for RMDPs. In contrast with prior robust policy gradient algorithms, DRPG monotonically reduces approximation errors to guarantee convergence to a globally optimal policy in tabular RMDPs. We introduce a novel parametric transition kernel and solve the inner loop robust policy via a gradient-based method. Finally, our numerical results demonstrate the utility of our new algorithm and confirm its global convergence properties.

This paper considers the problem of variable selection allowing for parameter instability. It distinguishes between signal and pseudo-signal variables that are correlated with the target variable, and noise variables that are not, and investigate the asymptotic properties of the One Covariate at a Time Multiple Testing (OCMT) method proposed by Chudik et al. (2018) under parameter insatiability. It is established that OCMT continues to asymptotically select an approximating model that includes all the signals and none of the noise variables. Properties of post selection regressions are also investigated, and in-sample fit of the selected regression is shown to have the oracle property. The theoretical results support the use of unweighted observations at the selection stage of OCMT, whilst applying down-weighting of observations only at the forecasting stage. Monte Carlo and empirical applications show that OCMT without down-weighting at the selection stage yields smaller mean squared forecast errors compared to Lasso, Adaptive Lasso, and boosting.

We introduce the concept of programmable feature engineering for time series modeling and propose a feature programming framework. This framework generates large amounts of predictive features for noisy multivariate time series while allowing users to incorporate their inductive bias with minimal effort. The key motivation of our framework is to view any multivariate time series as a cumulative sum of fine-grained trajectory increments, with each increment governed by a novel spin-gas dynamical Ising model. This fine-grained perspective motivates the development of a parsimonious set of operators that summarize multivariate time series in an abstract fashion, serving as the foundation for large-scale automated feature engineering. Numerically, we validate the efficacy of our method on several synthetic and real-world noisy time series datasets.

Smoothness and low dimensional structures play central roles in improving generalization and stability in learning and statistics. This work combines techniques from semi-infinite constrained learning and manifold regularization to learn representations that are globally smooth on a manifold. To do so, it shows that under typical conditions the problem of learning a Lipschitz continuous function on a manifold is equivalent to a dynamically weighted manifold regularization problem. This observation leads to a practical algorithm based on a weighted Laplacian penalty whose weights are adapted using stochastic gradient techniques. It is shown that under mild conditions, this method estimates the Lipschitz constant of the solution, learning a globally smooth solution as a byproduct. Experiments on real world data illustrate the advantages of the proposed method relative to existing alternatives.

Non-linear state-space models, also known as general hidden Markov models, are ubiquitous in statistical machine learning, being the most classical generative models for serial data and sequences in general. The particle-based, rapid incremental smoother PaRIS is a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) technique allowing for efficient online approximation of expectations of additive functionals under the smoothing distribution in these models. Such expectations appear naturally in several learning contexts, such as likelihood estimation (MLE) and Markov score climbing (MSC). PARIS has linear computational complexity, limited memory requirements and comes with non-asymptotic bounds, convergence results and stability guarantees. Still, being based on self-normalised importance sampling, the PaRIS estimator is biased. Our first contribution is to design a novel additive smoothing algorithm, the Parisian particle Gibbs PPG sampler, which can be viewed as a PaRIS algorithm driven by conditional SMC moves, resulting in bias-reduced estimates of the targeted quantities. We substantiate the PPG algorithm with theoretical results, including new bounds on bias and variance as well as deviation inequalities. Our second contribution is to apply PPG in a learning framework, covering MLE and MSC as special examples. In this context, we establish, under standard assumptions, non-asymptotic bounds highlighting the value of bias reduction and the implicit Rao--Blackwellization of PPG. These are the first non-asymptotic results of this kind in this setting. We illustrate our theoretical results with numerical experiments supporting our claims.

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in generative modeling tasks across various domains. Prior works on time series diffusion models have primarily focused on developing conditional models tailored to specific forecasting or imputation tasks. In this work, we explore the potential of task-agnostic, unconditional diffusion models for several time series applications. We propose TSDiff, an unconditionally trained diffusion model for time series. Our proposed self-guidance mechanism enables conditioning TSDiff for downstream tasks during inference, without requiring auxiliary networks or altering the training procedure. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our method on three different time series tasks: forecasting, refinement, and synthetic data generation. First, we show that TSDiff is competitive with several task-specific conditional forecasting methods (predict). Second, we leverage the learned implicit probability density of TSDiff to iteratively refine the predictions of base forecasters with reduced computational overhead over reverse diffusion (refine). Notably, the generative performance of the model remains intact -- downstream forecasters trained on synthetic samples from TSDiff outperform forecasters that are trained on samples from other state-of-the-art generative time series models, occasionally even outperforming models trained on real data (synthesize).

In physics and engineering literature, the distribution of the excursion-above-zero time distribution (exceedance distribution) for a stationary Gaussian process has been approximated by a stationary switching process with independently distributed switching times. The approach matched the covariance of the clipped Gaussian process with the one for the stationary switching process and the distribution of the latter was used as the so-called independent interval approximation (IIA). The approach successfully assessed the persistency exponent for many physically important processes but left an unanswered question when such an approach leads to a mathematically meaningful and proper exceedance distribution. Here we address this question by proposing an alternative matching of the expected values of the clipped Slepian process and the corresponding switched process initiated at the origin. The method has allowed resolving the mathematical correctness of the matching method for a large subclass of the Gaussian processes with monotonic covariance, for which we provide a sufficient condition for the validity of the IIA. Within this class, the IIA produces a valid distribution for the excursion time and is represented in an explicit stochastic form that connects directly to the covariance of the underlying Gaussian process. We compare the excursion level distributions as well as the corresponding persistency exponents obtained through the IIA method with numerically computed exact distributions, and the simulated distribution for several important Gaussian models. We also argue that for stationary Gaussian processes with a non-monotonic covariance, the IIA fails and should not be used.

We address the problem of optimizing a Brownian motion. We consider a (random) realization W of a Brownian motion with input space in [0,1]. Given W, our goal is to return an ε-approximation of its maximum using the smallest possible number of function evaluations, the sample complexity of the algorithm. We provide an algorithm with sample complexity of order log^2(1/ε). This improves over previous results of Al-Mharmah and Calvin (1996) and Calvin et al. (2017) which provided only polynomial rates. Our algorithm is adaptive---each query depends on previous values---and is an instance of the optimism-in-the-face-of-uncertainty principle.

Non-convex optimization plays a key role in a growing number of machine learning applications. This motivates the identification of specialized structure that enables sharper theoretical analysis. One such identified structure is quasar-convexity, a non-convex generalization of convexity that subsumes convex functions. Existing algorithms for minimizing quasar-convex functions in the stochastic setting have either high complexity or slow convergence, which prompts us to derive a new class of stochastic methods for optimizing smooth quasar-convex functions. We demonstrate that our algorithms have fast convergence and outperform existing algorithms on several examples, including the classical problem of learning linear dynamical systems. We also present a unified analysis of our newly proposed algorithms and a previously studied deterministic algorithm.

Temporal point processes (TPP) are a natural tool for modeling event-based data. Among all TPP models, Hawkes processes have proven to be the most widely used, mainly due to their adequate modeling for various applications, particularly when considering exponential or non-parametric kernels. Although non-parametric kernels are an option, such models require large datasets. While exponential kernels are more data efficient and relevant for specific applications where events immediately trigger more events, they are ill-suited for applications where latencies need to be estimated, such as in neuroscience. This work aims to offer an efficient solution to TPP inference using general parametric kernels with finite support. The developed solution consists of a fast ell_2 gradient-based solver leveraging a discretized version of the events. After theoretically supporting the use of discretization, the statistical and computational efficiency of the novel approach is demonstrated through various numerical experiments. Finally, the method's effectiveness is evaluated by modeling the occurrence of stimuli-induced patterns from brain signals recorded with magnetoencephalography (MEG). Given the use of general parametric kernels, results show that the proposed approach leads to an improved estimation of pattern latency than the state-of-the-art.

We study the problem of approximating stationary points of Lipschitz and smooth functions under (varepsilon,delta)-differential privacy (DP) in both the finite-sum and stochastic settings. A point w is called an alpha-stationary point of a function F:R^drightarrowR if |nabla F(w)|leq alpha. We provide a new efficient algorithm that finds an Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3}big)-stationary point in the finite-sum setting, where n is the number of samples. This improves on the previous best rate of Obig(big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big). We also give a new construction that improves over the existing rates in the stochastic optimization setting, where the goal is to find approximate stationary points of the population risk. Our construction finds a Obig(1{n^{1/3}} + big[sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big]^{1/2}big)-stationary point of the population risk in time linear in n. Furthermore, under the additional assumption of convexity, we completely characterize the sample complexity of finding stationary points of the population risk (up to polylog factors) and show that the optimal rate on population stationarity is tilde Thetabig(1{n}+sqrt{d}{nvarepsilon}big). Finally, we show that our methods can be used to provide dimension-independent rates of Obig(1{n}+minbig(big[sqrt{rank}{nvarepsilon}big]^{2/3},1{(nvarepsilon)^{2/5}}big)big) on population stationarity for Generalized Linear Models (GLM), where rank is the rank of the design matrix, which improves upon the previous best known rate.

To minimize the average of a set of log-convex functions, the stochastic Newton method iteratively updates its estimate using subsampled versions of the full objective's gradient and Hessian. We contextualize this optimization problem as sequential Bayesian inference on a latent state-space model with a discriminatively-specified observation process. Applying Bayesian filtering then yields a novel optimization algorithm that considers the entire history of gradients and Hessians when forming an update. We establish matrix-based conditions under which the effect of older observations diminishes over time, in a manner analogous to Polyak's heavy ball momentum. We illustrate various aspects of our approach with an example and review other relevant innovations for the stochastic Newton method.

We study the accuracy of differentially private mechanisms in the continual release model. A continual release mechanism receives a sensitive dataset as a stream of T inputs and produces, after receiving each input, an accurate output on the obtained inputs. In contrast, a batch algorithm receives the data as one batch and produces a single output. We provide the first strong lower bounds on the error of continual release mechanisms. In particular, for two fundamental problems that are widely studied and used in the batch model, we show that the worst case error of every continual release algorithm is tilde Omega(T^{1/3}) times larger than that of the best batch algorithm. Previous work shows only a polylogarithimic (in T) gap between the worst case error achievable in these two models; further, for many problems, including the summation of binary attributes, the polylogarithmic gap is tight (Dwork et al., 2010; Chan et al., 2010). Our results show that problems closely related to summation -- specifically, those that require selecting the largest of a set of sums -- are fundamentally harder in the continual release model than in the batch model. Our lower bounds assume only that privacy holds for streams fixed in advance (the "nonadaptive" setting). However, we provide matching upper bounds that hold in a model where privacy is required even for adaptively selected streams. This model may be of independent interest.

In this book chapter, we briefly describe the main components that constitute the gradient descent method and its accelerated and stochastic variants. We aim at explaining these components from a mathematical point of view, including theoretical and practical aspects, but at an elementary level. We will focus on basic variants of the gradient descent method and then extend our view to recent variants, especially variance-reduced stochastic gradient schemes (SGD). Our approach relies on revealing the structures presented inside the problem and the assumptions imposed on the objective function. Our convergence analysis unifies several known results and relies on a general, but elementary recursive expression. We have illustrated this analysis on several common schemes.

Learning in Gaussian Process models occurs through the adaptation of hyperparameters of the mean and the covariance function. The classical approach entails maximizing the marginal likelihood yielding fixed point estimates (an approach called Type II maximum likelihood or ML-II). An alternative learning procedure is to infer the posterior over hyperparameters in a hierarchical specification of GPs we call Fully Bayesian Gaussian Process Regression (GPR). This work considers two approximation schemes for the intractable hyperparameter posterior: 1) Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) yielding a sampling-based approximation and 2) Variational Inference (VI) where the posterior over hyperparameters is approximated by a factorized Gaussian (mean-field) or a full-rank Gaussian accounting for correlations between hyperparameters. We analyze the predictive performance for fully Bayesian GPR on a range of benchmark data sets.

Offline reinforcement learning (RL), where the agent aims to learn the optimal policy based on the data collected by a behavior policy, has attracted increasing attention in recent years. While offline RL with linear function approximation has been extensively studied with optimal results achieved under certain assumptions, many works shift their interest to offline RL with non-linear function approximation. However, limited works on offline RL with non-linear function approximation have instance-dependent regret guarantees. In this paper, we propose an oracle-efficient algorithm, dubbed Pessimistic Nonlinear Least-Square Value Iteration (PNLSVI), for offline RL with non-linear function approximation. Our algorithmic design comprises three innovative components: (1) a variance-based weighted regression scheme that can be applied to a wide range of function classes, (2) a subroutine for variance estimation, and (3) a planning phase that utilizes a pessimistic value iteration approach. Our algorithm enjoys a regret bound that has a tight dependency on the function class complexity and achieves minimax optimal instance-dependent regret when specialized to linear function approximation. Our work extends the previous instance-dependent results within simpler function classes, such as linear and differentiable function to a more general framework.

Iterative methods are ubiquitous in large-scale scientific computing applications, and a number of approaches based on meta-learning have been recently proposed to accelerate them. However, a systematic study of these approaches and how they differ from meta-learning is lacking. In this paper, we propose a framework to analyze such learning-based acceleration approaches, where one can immediately identify a departure from classical meta-learning. We show that this departure may lead to arbitrary deterioration of model performance. Based on our analysis, we introduce a novel training method for learning-based acceleration of iterative methods. Furthermore, we theoretically prove that the proposed method improves upon the existing methods, and demonstrate its significant advantage and versatility through various numerical applications.

We prove new convergence rates for a generalized version of stochastic Nesterov acceleration under interpolation conditions. Unlike previous analyses, our approach accelerates any stochastic gradient method which makes sufficient progress in expectation. The proof, which proceeds using the estimating sequences framework, applies to both convex and strongly convex functions and is easily specialized to accelerated SGD under the strong growth condition. In this special case, our analysis reduces the dependence on the strong growth constant from rho to rho as compared to prior work. This improvement is comparable to a square-root of the condition number in the worst case and address criticism that guarantees for stochastic acceleration could be worse than those for SGD.

This paper develops a new mathematical-statistical approach to analyze a class of Flajolet-Martin algorithms (FMa), and provides analytical confidence intervals for the number F0 of distinct elements in a stream, based on Chernoff bounds. The class of FMa has reached a significant popularity in bigdata stream learning, and the attention of the literature has mainly been based on algorithmic aspects, basically complexity optimality, while the statistical analysis of these class of algorithms has been often faced heuristically. The analysis provided here shows deep connections with mathematical special functions and with extreme value theory. The latter connection may help in explaining heuristic considerations, while the first opens many numerical issues, faced at the end of the present paper. Finally, the algorithms are tested on an anonymized real data stream and MonteCarlo simulations are provided to support our analytical choice in this context.

We consider a family of algorithms that successively sample and minimize simple stochastic models of the objective function. We show that under reasonable conditions on approximation quality and regularity of the models, any such algorithm drives a natural stationarity measure to zero at the rate O(k^{-1/4}). As a consequence, we obtain the first complexity guarantees for the stochastic proximal point, proximal subgradient, and regularized Gauss-Newton methods for minimizing compositions of convex functions with smooth maps. The guiding principle, underlying the complexity guarantees, is that all algorithms under consideration can be interpreted as approximate descent methods on an implicit smoothing of the problem, given by the Moreau envelope. Specializing to classical circumstances, we obtain the long-sought convergence rate of the stochastic projected gradient method, without batching, for minimizing a smooth function on a closed convex set.

We propose a unified framework to study policy evaluation (PE) and the associated temporal difference (TD) methods for reinforcement learning in continuous time and space. We show that PE is equivalent to maintaining the martingale condition of a process. From this perspective, we find that the mean--square TD error approximates the quadratic variation of the martingale and thus is not a suitable objective for PE. We present two methods to use the martingale characterization for designing PE algorithms. The first one minimizes a "martingale loss function", whose solution is proved to be the best approximation of the true value function in the mean--square sense. This method interprets the classical gradient Monte-Carlo algorithm. The second method is based on a system of equations called the "martingale orthogonality conditions" with test functions. Solving these equations in different ways recovers various classical TD algorithms, such as TD(lambda), LSTD, and GTD. Different choices of test functions determine in what sense the resulting solutions approximate the true value function. Moreover, we prove that any convergent time-discretized algorithm converges to its continuous-time counterpart as the mesh size goes to zero, and we provide the convergence rate. We demonstrate the theoretical results and corresponding algorithms with numerical experiments and applications.

Markov jump processes are continuous-time stochastic processes with a wide range of applications in both natural and social sciences. Despite their widespread use, inference in these models is highly non-trivial and typically proceeds via either Monte Carlo or expectation-maximization methods. In this work we introduce an alternative, variational inference algorithm for Markov jump processes which relies on neural ordinary differential equations, and is trainable via back-propagation. Our methodology learns neural, continuous-time representations of the observed data, that are used to approximate the initial distribution and time-dependent transition probability rates of the posterior Markov jump process. The time-independent rates of the prior process are in contrast trained akin to generative adversarial networks. We test our approach on synthetic data sampled from ground-truth Markov jump processes, experimental switching ion channel data and molecular dynamics simulations. Source code to reproduce our experiments is available online.

Benchmark quality is critical for meaningful evaluation and sustained progress in time series forecasting, particularly given the recent rise of pretrained models. Existing benchmarks often have narrow domain coverage or overlook important real-world settings, such as tasks with covariates. Additionally, their aggregation procedures often lack statistical rigor, making it unclear whether observed performance differences reflect true improvements or random variation. Many benchmarks also fail to provide infrastructure for consistent evaluation or are too rigid to integrate into existing pipelines. To address these gaps, we propose fev-bench, a benchmark comprising 100 forecasting tasks across seven domains, including 46 tasks with covariates. Supporting the benchmark, we introduce fev, a lightweight Python library for benchmarking forecasting models that emphasizes reproducibility and seamless integration with existing workflows. Usingfev, fev-bench employs principled aggregation methods with bootstrapped confidence intervals to report model performance along two complementary dimensions: win rates and skill scores. We report results on fev-bench for various pretrained, statistical and baseline models, and identify promising directions for future research.

We study the ranking of individuals, teams, or objects, based on pairwise comparisons between them, using the Bradley-Terry model. Estimates of rankings within this model are commonly made using a simple iterative algorithm first introduced by Zermelo almost a century ago. Here we describe an alternative and similarly simple iteration that provably returns identical results but does so much faster -- over a hundred times faster in some cases. We demonstrate this algorithm with applications to a range of example data sets and derive a number of results regarding its convergence.

Typical generative diffusion models rely on a Gaussian diffusion process for training the backward transformations, which can then be used to generate samples from Gaussian noise. However, real world data often takes place in discrete-state spaces, including many scientific applications. Here, we develop a theoretical formulation for arbitrary discrete-state Markov processes in the forward diffusion process using exact (as opposed to variational) analysis. We relate the theory to the existing continuous-state Gaussian diffusion as well as other approaches to discrete diffusion, and identify the corresponding reverse-time stochastic process and score function in the continuous-time setting, and the reverse-time mapping in the discrete-time setting. As an example of this framework, we introduce ``Blackout Diffusion'', which learns to produce samples from an empty image instead of from noise. Numerical experiments on the CIFAR-10, Binarized MNIST, and CelebA datasets confirm the feasibility of our approach. Generalizing from specific (Gaussian) forward processes to discrete-state processes without a variational approximation sheds light on how to interpret diffusion models, which we discuss.

We develop policy gradients methods for stochastic control with exit time in a model-free setting. We propose two types of algorithms for learning either directly the optimal policy or by learning alternately the value function (critic) and the optimal control (actor). The use of randomized policies is crucial for overcoming notably the issue related to the exit time in the gradient computation. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach by implementing our numerical schemes in the application to the problem of share repurchase pricing. Our results show that the proposed policy gradient methods outperform PDE or other neural networks techniques in a model-based setting. Furthermore, our algorithms are flexible enough to incorporate realistic market conditions like e.g. price impact or transaction costs.

In this paper we develop a dynamic form of Bayesian optimization for machine learning models with the goal of rapidly finding good hyperparameter settings. Our method uses the partial information gained during the training of a machine learning model in order to decide whether to pause training and start a new model, or resume the training of a previously-considered model. We specifically tailor our method to machine learning problems by developing a novel positive-definite covariance kernel to capture a variety of training curves. Furthermore, we develop a Gaussian process prior that scales gracefully with additional temporal observations. Finally, we provide an information-theoretic framework to automate the decision process. Experiments on several common machine learning models show that our approach is extremely effective in practice.

Given a large pool of unlabelled data and a smaller amount of labels, prediction-powered inference (PPI) leverages machine learning predictions to increase the statistical efficiency of confidence interval procedures based solely on labelled data, while preserving fixed-time validity. In this paper, we extend the PPI framework to the sequential setting, where labelled and unlabelled datasets grow over time. Exploiting Ville's inequality and the method of mixtures, we propose prediction-powered confidence sequence procedures that are asymptotically valid uniformly over time and naturally accommodate prior knowledge on the quality of the predictions to further boost efficiency. We carefully illustrate the design choices behind our method and demonstrate its effectiveness in real and synthetic examples.

Moment restrictions and their conditional counterparts emerge in many areas of machine learning and statistics ranging from causal inference to reinforcement learning. Estimators for these tasks, generally called methods of moments, include the prominent generalized method of moments (GMM) which has recently gained attention in causal inference. GMM is a special case of the broader family of empirical likelihood estimators which are based on approximating a population distribution by means of minimizing a varphi-divergence to an empirical distribution. However, the use of varphi-divergences effectively limits the candidate distributions to reweightings of the data samples. We lift this long-standing limitation and provide a method of moments that goes beyond data reweighting. This is achieved by defining an empirical likelihood estimator based on maximum mean discrepancy which we term the kernel method of moments (KMM). We provide a variant of our estimator for conditional moment restrictions and show that it is asymptotically first-order optimal for such problems. Finally, we show that our method achieves competitive performance on several conditional moment restriction tasks.

We develop an econometric framework integrating heavy-tailed Student's t distributions with behavioral probability weighting while preserving infinite divisibility. Using 432{,}752 observations across 86 assets (2004--2024), we demonstrate Student's t specifications outperform Gaussian models in 88.4\% of cases. Bounded probability-weighting transformations preserve mathematical properties required for dynamic pricing. Gaussian models underestimate 99\% Value-at-Risk by 19.7\% versus 3.2\% for our specification. Joint estimation procedures identify tail and behavioral parameters with established asymptotic properties. Results provide robust inference for asset-pricing applications where heavy tails and behavioral distortions coexist.

A central challenge to many fields of science and engineering involves minimizing non-convex error functions over continuous, high dimensional spaces. Gradient descent or quasi-Newton methods are almost ubiquitously used to perform such minimizations, and it is often thought that a main source of difficulty for the ability of these local methods to find the global minimum is the proliferation of local minima with much higher error than the global minimum. Here we argue, based on results from statistical physics, random matrix theory, and neural network theory, that a deeper and more profound difficulty originates from the proliferation of saddle points, not local minima, especially in high dimensional problems of practical interest. Such saddle points are surrounded by high error plateaus that can dramatically slow down learning, and give the illusory impression of the existence of a local minimum. Motivated by these arguments, we propose a new algorithm, the saddle-free Newton method, that can rapidly escape high dimensional saddle points, unlike gradient descent and quasi-Newton methods. We apply this algorithm to deep neural network training, and provide preliminary numerical evidence for its superior performance.

In this work we take a Category Theoretic perspective on the relationship between probabilistic modeling and function approximation. We begin by defining two extensions of function composition to stochastic process subordination: one based on the co-Kleisli category under the comonad (Omega x -) and one based on the parameterization of a category with a Lawvere theory. We show how these extensions relate to the category Stoch and other Markov Categories. Next, we apply the Para construction to extend stochastic processes to parameterized statistical models and we define a way to compose the likelihood functions of these models. We conclude with a demonstration of how the Maximum Likelihood Estimation procedure defines an identity-on-objects functor from the category of statistical models to the category of Learners. Code to accompany this paper can be found at https://github.com/dshieble/Categorical_Stochastic_Processes_and_Likelihood

Periodic signals play an important role in daily lives. Although conventional sequential models have shown remarkable success in various fields, they still come short in modeling periodicity; they either collapse, diverge or ignore details. In this paper, we introduce a novel framework inspired by Fourier series to generate periodic signals. We first decompose the given signals into multiple sines and cosines and then conditionally generate periodic signals with the output components. We have shown our model efficacy on three tasks: reconstruction, imputation and conditional generation. Our model outperforms baselines in all tasks and shows more stable and refined results.

A ubiquitous feature of data of our era is their extra-large sizes and dimensions. Analyzing such high-dimensional data poses significant challenges, since the feature dimension is often much larger than the sample size. This thesis introduces robust and computationally efficient methods to address several common challenges associated with high-dimensional data. In my first manuscript, I propose a coherent approach to variable screening that accommodates nonlinear associations. I develop a novel variable screening method that transcends traditional linear assumptions by leveraging mutual information, with an intended application in neuroimaging data. This approach allows for accurate identification of important variables by capturing nonlinear as well as linear relationships between the outcome and covariates. Building on this foundation, I develop new optimization methods for sparse estimation using nonconvex penalties in my second manuscript. These methods address notable challenges in current statistical computing practices, facilitating computationally efficient and robust analyses of complex datasets. The proposed method can be applied to a general class of optimization problems. In my third manuscript, I contribute to robust modeling of high-dimensional correlated observations by developing a mixed-effects model based on Tsallis power-law entropy maximization and discussed the theoretical properties of such distribution. This model surpasses the constraints of conventional Gaussian models by accommodating a broader class of distributions with enhanced robustness to outliers. Additionally, I develop a proximal nonlinear conjugate gradient algorithm that accelerates convergence while maintaining numerical stability, along with rigorous statistical properties for the proposed framework.

Block coordinate descent (BCD) methods are widely used for large-scale numerical optimization because of their cheap iteration costs, low memory requirements, amenability to parallelization, and ability to exploit problem structure. Three main algorithmic choices influence the performance of BCD methods: the block partitioning strategy, the block selection rule, and the block update rule. In this paper we explore all three of these building blocks and propose variations for each that can significantly improve the progress made by each BCD iteration. We (i) propose new greedy block-selection strategies that guarantee more progress per iteration than the Gauss-Southwell rule; (ii) explore practical issues like how to implement the new rules when using "variable" blocks; (iii) explore the use of message-passing to compute matrix or Newton updates efficiently on huge blocks for problems with sparse dependencies between variables; and (iv) consider optimal active manifold identification, which leads to bounds on the "active-set complexity" of BCD methods and leads to superlinear convergence for certain problems with sparse solutions (and in some cases finite termination at an optimal solution). We support all of our findings with numerical results for the classic machine learning problems of least squares, logistic regression, multi-class logistic regression, label propagation, and L1-regularization.

We study the problem of constrained efficient global optimization, where both the objective and constraints are expensive black-box functions that can be learned with Gaussian processes. We propose CONFIG (CONstrained efFIcient Global Optimization), a simple and effective algorithm to solve it. Under certain regularity assumptions, we show that our algorithm enjoys the same cumulative regret bound as that in the unconstrained case and similar cumulative constraint violation upper bounds. For commonly used Matern and Squared Exponential kernels, our bounds are sublinear and allow us to derive a convergence rate to the optimal solution of the original constrained problem. In addition, our method naturally provides a scheme to declare infeasibility when the original black-box optimization problem is infeasible. Numerical experiments on sampled instances from the Gaussian process, artificial numerical problems, and a black-box building controller tuning problem all demonstrate the competitive performance of our algorithm. Compared to the other state-of-the-art methods, our algorithm significantly improves the theoretical guarantees, while achieving competitive empirical performance.