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Jul 24

INFOrmation Prioritization through EmPOWERment in Visual Model-Based RL

Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms designed for handling complex visual observations typically learn some sort of latent state representation, either explicitly or implicitly. Standard methods of this sort do not distinguish between functionally relevant aspects of the state and irrelevant distractors, instead aiming to represent all available information equally. We propose a modified objective for model-based RL that, in combination with mutual information maximization, allows us to learn representations and dynamics for visual model-based RL without reconstruction in a way that explicitly prioritizes functionally relevant factors. The key principle behind our design is to integrate a term inspired by variational empowerment into a state-space model based on mutual information. This term prioritizes information that is correlated with action, thus ensuring that functionally relevant factors are captured first. Furthermore, the same empowerment term also promotes faster exploration during the RL process, especially for sparse-reward tasks where the reward signal is insufficient to drive exploration in the early stages of learning. We evaluate the approach on a suite of vision-based robot control tasks with natural video backgrounds, and show that the proposed prioritized information objective outperforms state-of-the-art model based RL approaches with higher sample efficiency and episodic returns. https://sites.google.com/view/information-empowerment

  • 4 authors
·
Apr 18, 2022

Episodic Memories Generation and Evaluation Benchmark for Large Language Models

Episodic memory -- the ability to recall specific events grounded in time and space -- is a cornerstone of human cognition, enabling not only coherent storytelling, but also planning and decision-making. Despite their remarkable capabilities, Large Language Models (LLMs) lack a robust mechanism for episodic memory: we argue that integrating episodic memory capabilities into LLM is essential for advancing AI towards human-like cognition, increasing their potential to reason consistently and ground their output in real-world episodic events, hence avoiding confabulations. To address this challenge, we introduce a comprehensive framework to model and evaluate LLM episodic memory capabilities. Drawing inspiration from cognitive science, we develop a structured approach to represent episodic events, encapsulating temporal and spatial contexts, involved entities, and detailed descriptions. We synthesize a unique episodic memory benchmark, free from contamination, and release open source code and datasets to assess LLM performance across various recall and episodic reasoning tasks. Our evaluation of state-of-the-art models, including GPT-4 and Claude variants, Llama 3.1, and o1-mini, reveals that even the most advanced LLMs struggle with episodic memory tasks, particularly when dealing with multiple related events or complex spatio-temporal relationships -- even in contexts as short as 10k-100k tokens.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 20, 2025

A Study of Global and Episodic Bonuses for Exploration in Contextual MDPs

Exploration in environments which differ across episodes has received increasing attention in recent years. Current methods use some combination of global novelty bonuses, computed using the agent's entire training experience, and episodic novelty bonuses, computed using only experience from the current episode. However, the use of these two types of bonuses has been ad-hoc and poorly understood. In this work, we shed light on the behavior of these two types of bonuses through controlled experiments on easily interpretable tasks as well as challenging pixel-based settings. We find that the two types of bonuses succeed in different settings, with episodic bonuses being most effective when there is little shared structure across episodes and global bonuses being effective when more structure is shared. We develop a conceptual framework which makes this notion of shared structure precise by considering the variance of the value function across contexts, and which provides a unifying explanation of our empirical results. We furthermore find that combining the two bonuses can lead to more robust performance across different degrees of shared structure, and investigate different algorithmic choices for defining and combining global and episodic bonuses based on function approximation. This results in an algorithm which sets a new state of the art across 16 tasks from the MiniHack suite used in prior work, and also performs robustly on Habitat and Montezuma's Revenge.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 5, 2023

Spatially-Aware Transformer for Embodied Agents

Episodic memory plays a crucial role in various cognitive processes, such as the ability to mentally recall past events. While cognitive science emphasizes the significance of spatial context in the formation and retrieval of episodic memory, the current primary approach to implementing episodic memory in AI systems is through transformers that store temporally ordered experiences, which overlooks the spatial dimension. As a result, it is unclear how the underlying structure could be extended to incorporate the spatial axis beyond temporal order alone and thereby what benefits can be obtained. To address this, this paper explores the use of Spatially-Aware Transformer models that incorporate spatial information. These models enable the creation of place-centric episodic memory that considers both temporal and spatial dimensions. Adopting this approach, we demonstrate that memory utilization efficiency can be improved, leading to enhanced accuracy in various place-centric downstream tasks. Additionally, we propose the Adaptive Memory Allocator, a memory management method based on reinforcement learning that aims to optimize efficiency of memory utilization. Our experiments demonstrate the advantages of our proposed model in various environments and across multiple downstream tasks, including prediction, generation, reasoning, and reinforcement learning. The source code for our models and experiments will be available at https://github.com/junmokane/spatially-aware-transformer.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 23, 2024

Useful Memories Become Faulty When Continuously Updated by LLMs

Learning from past experience benefits from two complementary forms of memory: episodic traces -- raw trajectories of what happened -- and consolidated abstractions distilled across many episodes into reusable, schema-like lessons. Recent agentic-memory systems pursue the consolidated form: an LLM rewrites past trajectories into a textual memory bank that it continuously updates with new interactions, promising self-improving agents without parameter updates. Yet we find that such consolidated memories produced by today's LLMs are often faulty even when derived from useful experiences. As consolidation proceeds, memory utility first rises, then degrades, and can fall below the no-memory baseline. More surprisingly, even when consolidating from ground-truth solutions, GPT-5.4 fails on 54% of a set of ARC-AGI problems it had previously solved without memory. We trace the regression to the consolidation step rather than the underlying experience: the same trajectories yield qualitatively different memories under different update schedules, and an episodic-only control that simply retains those trajectories remains competitive with the consolidators we test. In a controlled ARC-AGI Stream environment that exposes Retain, Delete, and Consolidate actions, agents preserve raw episodes by default and double the accuracy of their forced-consolidation counterparts; disabling consolidation entirely (episodic management only) matches this auto regime. Practically, robust agent memory should treat raw episodes as first-class evidence and gate consolidation explicitly rather than firing it after every interaction. Looking forward, reliable agentic memory will require LLMs that can consolidate without overwriting the evidence they depend on.

The Compliance Trap: Diagnosing How AI Agents Consume Conflicting Memory

Memory is becoming a core component of long-horizon AI agents, allowing agents to reuse past experience when operating web browsers, software tools, and other interactive environments. Existing work mostly treats memory as a supply problem, asking what experience to write, how to store it, and which entry to retrieve for the next task. Yet we still lack a clear account of how models consume retrieved memory across a multi-step action trajectory. This consumption process matters because it determines not only what memories should be retrieved, but also what models and control policies are needed to use them safely. To diagnose this process, we propose Entry--Propagation--Recovery (E-P-R), a trajectory-level framework that asks where memory first changes an action, whether that change carries forward, and whether the agent can recover after leaving a correct path. We instantiate E-P-R on WebArena and on MemTrapBench, a controlled benchmark we build to isolate these phases. We find that the main failure often begins at entry: agents adopt conflicting memory at the first exposed decision point even when it is task-wrong. Repeated exposure then amplifies this early error, while recovery after divergence is weak. Together, these effects create a compliance trap: across models, conflicting memory induces similar compliance rates, but once agents comply, their success rates collapse to a low floor. Stronger agents therefore suffer larger absolute damage because each compliance event erases more baseline capability. These results suggest that memory-augmented agents should be evaluated not only by retrieval quality or final success rate, but by how they consume memory throughout the trajectory.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 11

Echo-Memory: A Controlled Study of Memory in Action World Models

We present Echo-Memory, a controlled study of memory mechanisms in action-conditioned world models. These models generate multi-segment videos from a first frame, text prompt, and camera-action sequence, but their central failure is often memory rather than local image synthesis: after the camera leaves and returns, the scene or salient object may silently change. Existing memory designs are hard to compare because gains are entangled with backbone, training, retrieval, and evaluation differences. Echo-Memory fixes the action-to-video interface and varies only how history is stored and read by the generator. Under a shared video diffusion backbone, optimizer, camera-action representation, sampler, and evaluation pipeline, we compare raw context, compression-based memory, spatial summaries with different read-out paths, and state-space recurrence. This matched matrix separates four otherwise conflated axes: capacity, compression, read-out, and recurrence. We also evaluate memory through a three-branch protocol: replay quality, in-domain loop revisit, and open-domain return probes. The branches routinely disagree, showing that replay fidelity is not a sufficient proxy for remembering a world. Three findings follow. Raw context is a strong capacity baseline and improves open-domain return far more than it improves replay metrics. Compactness is not a free substitute for capacity: aggressive spatial and hybrid-compression memories lose the salient evidence needed for return. Finally, block-wise state-space recurrence is the strongest open-domain return mechanism in our matrix, showing that the structure of implicit memory matters as much as the decision to use it. These results provide a compact protocol for studying memory in action world models beyond isolated replay metrics.

  • 16 authors
·
Jun 7 2

EGOSTREAM: A Diagnostic Benchmark for Streaming Episodic Memory in Egocentric Vision

Continuous episodic memory is a core capability for autonomous agents operating in dynamic, real-world environments, yet current streaming video benchmarks provide limited tools for diagnosing what models remember and for how long. We introduce Egostream, a diagnostic benchmark for streaming episodic memory evaluation in egocentric vision. \egostream organizes 2,250 curated questions along seven cognitive dimensions: detail, spatial, temporal, event, social, causal, and prospective memory. We introduce the Answer Validity Window (AVW), which specifies the temporal span an answer remains valid as the observed scene evolves. This allows us to expand the questions into 8,528 recall-conditioned evaluations, enabling controlled testing from instant to ultra-long-term recall while separating genuine model forgetting from natural world-state changes. We rigorously establish baseline performance through a unified streaming MLLM framework that compares several state-of-the-art memory-management mechanisms, covering sliding windows, attention sinks, KV-cache pruning, merging, and offloading. Experiments within a unified Qwen3-VL backbone reveal that comparable aggregate accuracies mask starkly different memory profiles. For instance, token pruning preserves fine-grained details and temporal structure significantly better than token merging, while quantized offloading rescues ultra-long-term recall. Ultimately, all mechanisms operate well below real-time (>1s per frame), and top performing methods ceil at about 45% accuracy, exposing critical gaps in current architectures. Egostream provides the diagnostic testbed needed to close these gaps. Project website, news and updates at: https://saroo25.github.io/Egostream/

  • 3 authors
·
May 31

MemoGuard: An Adaptive Runtime for Guarding Against Memory Traps in Communication-Limited Robot Navigation

Communication-limited robots in mission-critical scenarios such as disaster inspection and search-and-rescue must make reliable onboard decisions without access to remote operators or high-capacity reasoning services. Episodic memory reuse is an attractive low-cost fallback, but retrieval similarity does not guarantee execution validity, i.e., a retrieved action may match the current context yet be unsafe due to changed topology, insufficient battery margin, or unreliable prior outcomes. We call such high-similarity but execution-invalid episodes memory traps. This creates a safety-efficiency design space where similarity only reuse minimizes fallback cost but can be unsafe, while always invoking local reasoning improves safety at high computational and energy cost. This paper presents MemoGuard, a lightweight adaptive runtime that validates episodic memories against topology, resource, and outcome contracts before reuse, invoking fallback only when validation fails. In a graph-based corridor-inspection simulator, MemoGuard reduces battery safety violations by 76.6% over similarity-only top-1 reuse while reducing fallback calls by 21.4% over always reasoning. On an NVIDIA Jetson AGX Xavier with local llama3.2:3b fallback reasoning, this corresponds to 3.67 s and 36.97 J of avoided fallback-reasoning overhead per trial. We open-source MemoGuard at https://github.com/hetheiin/memoguard.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 16

Human-like Episodic Memory for Infinite Context LLMs

Large language models (LLMs) have shown remarkable capabilities, but still struggle with processing extensive contexts, limiting their ability to maintain coherence and accuracy over long sequences. In contrast, the human brain excels at organising and retrieving episodic experiences across vast temporal scales, spanning a lifetime. In this work, we introduce EM-LLM, a novel approach that integrates key aspects of human episodic memory and event cognition into LLMs, enabling them to effectively handle practically infinite context lengths while maintaining computational efficiency. EM-LLM organises sequences of tokens into coherent episodic events using a combination of Bayesian surprise and graph-theoretic boundary refinement in an on-line fashion. When needed, these events are retrieved through a two-stage memory process, combining similarity-based and temporally contiguous retrieval for efficient and human-like access to relevant information. Experiments on the LongBench dataset demonstrate EM-LLM's superior performance, outperforming the state-of-the-art InfLLM model with an overall relative improvement of 4.3% across various tasks, including a 33% improvement on the PassageRetrieval task. Furthermore, our analysis reveals strong correlations between EM-LLM's event segmentation and human-perceived events, suggesting a bridge between this artificial system and its biological counterpart. This work not only advances LLM capabilities in processing extended contexts but also provides a computational framework for exploring human memory mechanisms, opening new avenues for interdisciplinary research in AI and cognitive science.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 12, 2024 6

Continual Vision-and-Language Navigation

In developing Vision-and-Language Navigation (VLN) agents that navigate to a destination using natural language instructions and visual cues, current studies largely assume a train-once-deploy-once strategy. We argue that this kind of strategy is less realistic, as deployed VLN agents are expected to encounter novel environments continuously through their lifetime. To facilitate more realistic setting for VLN agents, we propose Continual Vision-and-Language Navigation (CVLN) paradigm for agents to continually learn and adapt to changing environments. In CVLN, the agents are trained and evaluated incrementally across multiple scene domains (i.e., environments). We present two CVLN learning setups to consider diverse forms of natural language instructions: Initial-instruction based CVLN, focused on navigation via initial-instruction interpretation, and dialogue-based CVLN, designed for navigation through dialogue with other agents. We introduce two simple yet effective baseline methods, tailored to the sequential decision-making needs of CVLN: Perplexity Replay (PerpR) and Episodic Self-Replay (ESR), both employing a rehearsal mechanism. PerpR selects replay episodes based on episode difficulty, while ESR stores and revisits action logits from individual episode steps during training to refine learning. Experimental results indicate that while existing continual learning methods are insufficient for CVLN, PerpR and ESR outperform the comparison methods by effectively utilizing replay memory.

  • 5 authors
·
Mar 22, 2024

AgentFly: Fine-tuning LLM Agents without Fine-tuning LLMs

In this paper, we introduce a novel learning paradigm for adaptive Large Language Model (LLM) agents that eliminates the need for fine-tuning the underlying LLMs. Existing approaches are often either rigid, relying on static, handcrafted reflection workflows, or computationally intensive, requiring gradient updates of LLM model parameters. In contrast, our method enables low-cost continual adaptation via memory-based online reinforcement learning. We formalise this as a Memory-augmented Markov Decision Process (M-MDP), equipped with a neural case-selection policy to guide action decisions. Past experiences are stored in an episodic memory, either differentiable or non-parametric. The policy is continually updated based on environmental feedback through a memory rewriting mechanism, whereas policy improvement is achieved through efficient memory reading (retrieval). We instantiate our agent model in the deep research setting, namely AgentFly, which attains top-1 on GAIA validation (87.88% Pass@3) and 79.40% on the test set. It reaches 66.6% F1 and 80.4% PM on the DeepResearcher dataset, outperforming the state-of-the-art training-based method, while case-based memory adds 4.7% to 9.6% absolute points on out-of-distribution tasks. Our approach offers a scalable and efficient pathway for developing generalist LLM agents capable of continuous, real-time learning without gradient updates, advancing machine learning towards open-ended skill acquisition and deep research scenarios. The code is available at https://github.com/Agent-on-the-Fly/AgentFly.

  • 11 authors
·
Aug 22, 2025 12

Open RL Benchmark: Comprehensive Tracked Experiments for Reinforcement Learning

In many Reinforcement Learning (RL) papers, learning curves are useful indicators to measure the effectiveness of RL algorithms. However, the complete raw data of the learning curves are rarely available. As a result, it is usually necessary to reproduce the experiments from scratch, which can be time-consuming and error-prone. We present Open RL Benchmark, a set of fully tracked RL experiments, including not only the usual data such as episodic return, but also all algorithm-specific and system metrics. Open RL Benchmark is community-driven: anyone can download, use, and contribute to the data. At the time of writing, more than 25,000 runs have been tracked, for a cumulative duration of more than 8 years. Open RL Benchmark covers a wide range of RL libraries and reference implementations. Special care is taken to ensure that each experiment is precisely reproducible by providing not only the full parameters, but also the versions of the dependencies used to generate it. In addition, Open RL Benchmark comes with a command-line interface (CLI) for easy fetching and generating figures to present the results. In this document, we include two case studies to demonstrate the usefulness of Open RL Benchmark in practice. To the best of our knowledge, Open RL Benchmark is the first RL benchmark of its kind, and the authors hope that it will improve and facilitate the work of researchers in the field.

  • 33 authors
·
Feb 5, 2024

CoFlow: Coordinated Few-Step Flow for Offline Multi-Agent Decision Making

Generative models have emerged as a major paradigm for offline multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL), but existing approaches require many iterative sampling steps. Recent few-step accelerations either distill a joint teacher into independent students or apply averaged velocities independently per agent, suggesting that few-step inference requires sacrificing inter-agent coordination. We show this trade-off is not necessary: single-pass multi-agent generation can preserve coordination when the velocity field is natively joint-coupled. We propose Coordinated few-step Flow (CoFlow), an architecture that combines Coordinated Velocity Attention (CVA) with Adaptive Coordination Gating. A finite-difference consistency surrogate further replaces memory-prohibitive Jacobian-vector product backpropagation through the averaged velocity field with two stop-gradient forward passes. Across 60 configurations spanning MPE, MA-MuJoCo, and SMAC, CoFlow matches or surpasses Gaussian / value-based, transformer, diffusion, and prior flow baselines on episodic return. Three independent coordination probes confirm that the gains flow through inter-agent coordination rather than per-agent capacity. A denoising-step sweep shows that single-pass inference suffices on every configuration. CoFlow reaches state-of-the-art coordination quality in 1-3 denoising steps under both centralized and decentralized execution. Project page: https://github.com/Guowei-Zou/coflow.

  • 5 authors
·
May 1

The World Model Remembers, the Actor Forgets: Dream Rehearsal for Continual Model-Based RL

Model-based reinforcement-learning agents of the DreamerV3 family forget catastrophically when trained on task sequences, even when an unbounded replay buffer preserves every earlier experience. We ask a question the continual-RL literature has assumed an answer to but never measured: which component forgets? Under never-clear replay, pre-registered component-level probes (n=3 seeds throughout) show that the world model retains essentially everything measurable about old tasks -- reward discrimination (retention ratio ~1.0), value estimates, and termination structure -- while the actor's behavior collapses. Forgetting in this regime is a channel problem, not a memory problem. We demonstrate this by intervention: with the world model frozen and identical imagined rollouts, reinforcement learning in imagination fails to recover a lost skill (0/3 seeds), while supervised self-imitation on the world model's own graded dreams recovers it on 3/3 seeds with zero environment interaction. Interleaved during training, this graded dream rehearsal yields a task-label-free, parameter-constant continual learner: 3/3 four-task chains retained where plain replay passes 0/3, 3/3 eight-task chains, and consistent gains over matched real-episode cloning (paired difference +0.13, bootstrap 95% CI [0.07, 0.24], complete seed separation). The dream-grading step is load-bearing: we characterize two scoring failure modes, provide an offline selection gauge that caught both before they contaminated results, and give a realized-first grading rule that closes them. All experiments were pre-registered with committed protocols; every refuted hypothesis is reported.

  • 1 authors
·
Jul 21 1

Dichotomy of Control: Separating What You Can Control from What You Cannot

Future- or return-conditioned supervised learning is an emerging paradigm for offline reinforcement learning (RL), where the future outcome (i.e., return) associated with an observed action sequence is used as input to a policy trained to imitate those same actions. While return-conditioning is at the heart of popular algorithms such as decision transformer (DT), these methods tend to perform poorly in highly stochastic environments, where an occasional high return can arise from randomness in the environment rather than the actions themselves. Such situations can lead to a learned policy that is inconsistent with its conditioning inputs; i.e., using the policy to act in the environment, when conditioning on a specific desired return, leads to a distribution of real returns that is wildly different than desired. In this work, we propose the dichotomy of control (DoC), a future-conditioned supervised learning framework that separates mechanisms within a policy's control (actions) from those beyond a policy's control (environment stochasticity). We achieve this separation by conditioning the policy on a latent variable representation of the future, and designing a mutual information constraint that removes any information from the latent variable associated with randomness in the environment. Theoretically, we show that DoC yields policies that are consistent with their conditioning inputs, ensuring that conditioning a learned policy on a desired high-return future outcome will correctly induce high-return behavior. Empirically, we show that DoC is able to achieve significantly better performance than DT on environments that have highly stochastic rewards and transition

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 24, 2022

Superposed Episodic and Semantic Memory via Sparse Distributed Representation

The abilities to perceive, learn, and use generalities, similarities, classes, i.e., semantic memory (SM), is central to cognition. Machine learning (ML), neural network, and AI research has been primarily driven by tasks requiring such abilities. However, another central facet of cognition, single-trial formation of permanent memories of experiences, i.e., episodic memory (EM), has had relatively little focus. Only recently has EM-like functionality been added to Deep Learning (DL) models, e.g., Neural Turing Machine, Memory Networks. However, in these cases: a) EM is implemented as a separate module, which entails substantial data movement (and so, time and power) between the DL net itself and EM; and b) individual items are stored localistically within the EM, precluding realizing the exponential representational efficiency of distributed over localist coding. We describe Sparsey, an unsupervised, hierarchical, spatial/spatiotemporal associative memory model differing fundamentally from mainstream ML models, most crucially, in its use of sparse distributed representations (SDRs), or, cell assemblies, which admits an extremely efficient, single-trial learning algorithm that maps input similarity into code space similarity (measured as intersection). SDRs of individual inputs are stored in superposition and because similarity is preserved, the patterns of intersections over the assigned codes reflect the similarity, i.e., statistical, structure, of all orders, not simply pairwise, over the inputs. Thus, SM, i.e., a generative model, is built as a computationally free side effect of the act of storing episodic memory traces of individual inputs, either spatial patterns or sequences. We report initial results on MNIST and on the Weizmann video event recognition benchmarks. While we have not yet attained SOTA class accuracy, learning takes only minutes on a single CPU.

  • 2 authors
·
Oct 21, 2017

Avoid Catastrophic Forgetting with Rank-1 Fisher from Diffusion Models

Catastrophic forgetting remains a central obstacle for continual learning in neural models. Popular approaches -- replay and elastic weight consolidation (EWC) -- have limitations: replay requires a strong generator and is prone to distributional drift, while EWC implicitly assumes a shared optimum across tasks and typically uses a diagonal Fisher approximation. In this work, we study the gradient geometry of diffusion models, which can already produce high-quality replay data. We provide theoretical and empirical evidence that, in the low signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) regime, per-sample gradients become strongly collinear, yielding an empirical Fisher that is effectively rank-1 and aligned with the mean gradient. Leveraging this structure, we propose a rank-1 variant of EWC that is as cheap as the diagonal approximation yet captures the dominant curvature direction. We pair this penalty with a replay-based approach to encourage parameter sharing across tasks while mitigating drift. On class-incremental image generation datasets (MNIST, FashionMNIST, CIFAR-10, ImageNet-1k), our method consistently improves average FID and reduces forgetting relative to replay-only and diagonal-EWC baselines. In particular, forgetting is nearly eliminated on MNIST and FashionMNIST and is more than halved on ImageNet-1k. These results suggest that diffusion models admit an approximately rank-1 Fisher. With a better Fisher estimate, EWC becomes a strong complement to replay: replay encourages parameter sharing across tasks, while EWC effectively constrains replay-induced drift.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 25

Uncertainty-Aware Longitudinal Forecasting of Alzheimer's Disease Progression Using Deep Learning

Longitudinal modelling of Alzheimer's disease progression is clinically useful only if it can describe not just the most likely next diagnosis, but how a patient may evolve over time and how reliable that forecast is. Most deep learning approaches reduce this problem to single-step classification, treating cognitively normal, mild cognitive impairment, and dementia as flat categories while providing limited insight into how uncertainty accumulates across future visits. We propose a probabilistic framework that combines ordinal diagnosis prediction, multi-horizon trajectory generation, and decomposed uncertainty estimation. A Temporal Fusion Transformer encoder is adapted with a CORAL ordinal output layer, asymmetric loss weighting, and converter oversampling to respect disease-stage ordering and improve sensitivity to MCI-to-dementia transitions. Conditioned on the learned patient-context representation, an autoregressive Mixture Density Network generates five-year probabilistic trajectories for diagnosis state, CDR Sum of Boxes, MMSE orientation, and hippocampal volume. On ADNI, the model outperforms linear, recurrent, and transformer baselines for next-visit diagnosis prediction, with the strongest gains on MCI-versus-dementia discrimination. Generated trajectories achieve near-nominal 90% credible interval coverage, widening uncertainty across the forecast horizon, and biomarker dynamics consistent with expected Alzheimer's disease progression. We further separate aleatoric from epistemic uncertainty using analytic mixture variance and a five-member bootstrap ensemble, which provides the strongest encoder diversity and output-level epistemic signal. Epistemic uncertainty is higher for rare progression archetypes, MCI and dementia patients, and under external evaluation on OASIS-3, where it increases alongside prediction error.

  • 3 authors
·
Jun 22