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Jul 21

Mixture-of-Recursions: Learning Dynamic Recursive Depths for Adaptive Token-Level Computation

Scaling language models unlocks impressive capabilities, but the accompanying computational and memory demands make both training and deployment expensive. Existing efficiency efforts typically target either parameter sharing or adaptive computation, leaving open the question of how to attain both simultaneously. We introduce Mixture-of-Recursions (MoR), a unified framework that combines the two axes of efficiency inside a single Recursive Transformer. MoR reuses a shared stack of layers across recursion steps to achieve parameter efficiency, while lightweight routers enable adaptive token-level thinking by dynamically assigning different recursion depths to individual tokens. This allows MoR to focus quadratic attention computation only among tokens still active at a given recursion depth, further improving memory access efficiency by selectively caching only their key-value pairs. Beyond these core mechanisms, we also propose a KV sharing variant that reuses KV pairs from the first recursion, specifically designed to decrease prefill latency and memory footprint. Across model scales ranging from 135M to 1.7B parameters, MoR forms a new Pareto frontier: at equal training FLOPs and smaller model sizes, it significantly lowers validation perplexity and improves few-shot accuracy, while delivering higher throughput compared with vanilla and existing recursive baselines. These gains demonstrate that MoR is an effective path towards large-model quality without incurring large-model cost.

  • 11 authors
·
Jul 14, 2025 1

SpeContext: Enabling Efficient Long-context Reasoning with Speculative Context Sparsity in LLMs

In this paper, we point out that the objective of the retrieval algorithms is to align with the LLM, which is similar to the objective of knowledge distillation in LLMs. We analyze the similarity in information focus between the distilled language model(DLM) and the original LLM from the perspective of information theory, and thus propose a novel paradigm that leverages a DLM as the retrieval algorithm. Based on the insight, we present SpeContext, an algorithm and system co-design for long-context reasoning. (1) At the algorithm level, SpeContext proposes lightweight retrieval head based on the head-level attention weights of DLM, achieving > 90% parameters reduction by pruning the redundancy. (2) At the system level, SpeContext designs an asynchronous prefetch dataflow via the elastic loading strategy, effectively overlapping KV cache retrieval with the LLM computation. (3) At the compilation level, SpeContext constructs the theoretical memory model and implements an adaptive memory management system to achieve acceleration by maximizing GPU memory utilization. We deploy and evaluate SpeContext in two resourceconstrained environments, cloud and edge. Extensive experiments show that, compared with the Huggingface framework, SpeContext achieves up to 24.89x throughput improvement in cloud and 10.06x speedup in edge with negligible accuracy loss, pushing the Pareto frontier of accuracy and throughput.

ECO: Quantized Training without Full-Precision Master Weights

Quantization has significantly improved the compute and memory efficiency of Large Language Model (LLM) training. However, existing approaches still rely on accumulating their updates in high-precision: concretely, gradient updates must be applied to a high-precision weight buffer, known as master weights. This buffer introduces substantial memory overhead, particularly for Sparse Mixture of Experts (SMoE) models, where model parameters and optimizer states dominate memory usage. To address this, we introduce the Error-Compensating Optimizer (ECO), which eliminates master weights by applying updates directly to quantized parameters. ECO quantizes weights after each step and carefully injects the resulting quantization error into the optimizer momentum, forming an error-feedback loop with no additional memory. We prove that, under standard assumptions and a decaying learning rate, ECO converges to a constant-radius neighborhood of the optimum, while naive master-weight removal can incur an error that is inversely proportional to the learning rate. We show empirical results for pretraining small Transformers (30-800M), a Gemma-3 1B model, and a 2.1B parameter Sparse MoE model with FP8 quantization, and fine-tuning DeepSeek-MoE-16B in INT4 precision. Throughout, ECO matches baselines with master weights up to near-lossless accuracy, significantly shifting the static memory vs validation loss Pareto frontier.

google Google
·
Jan 29 3

ParetoFlow: Guided Flows in Multi-Objective Optimization

In offline multi-objective optimization (MOO), we leverage an offline dataset of designs and their associated labels to simultaneously minimize multiple objectives. This setting more closely mirrors complex real-world problems compared to single-objective optimization. Recent works mainly employ evolutionary algorithms and Bayesian optimization, with limited attention given to the generative modeling capabilities inherent in such data. In this study, we explore generative modeling in offline MOO through flow matching, noted for its effectiveness and efficiency. We introduce ParetoFlow, specifically designed to guide flow sampling to approximate the Pareto front. Traditional predictor (classifier) guidance is inadequate for this purpose because it models only a single objective. In response, we propose a multi-objective predictor guidance module that assigns each sample a weight vector, representing a weighted distribution across multiple objective predictions. A local filtering scheme is introduced to address non-convex Pareto fronts. These weights uniformly cover the entire objective space, effectively directing sample generation towards the Pareto front. Since distributions with similar weights tend to generate similar samples, we introduce a neighboring evolution module to foster knowledge sharing among neighboring distributions. This module generates offspring from these distributions, and selects the most promising one for the next iteration. Our method achieves state-of-the-art performance across various tasks.

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 19, 2025

Where to Split? A Pareto-Front Analysis of DNN Partitioning for Edge Inference

The deployment of deep neural networks (DNNs) on resource-constrained edge devices is frequently hindered by their significant computational and memory requirements. While partitioning and distributing a DNN across multiple devices is a well-established strategy to mitigate this challenge, prior research has largely focused on single-objective optimization, such as minimizing latency or maximizing throughput. This paper challenges that view by reframing DNN partitioning as a multi-objective optimization problem. We argue that in real-world scenarios, a complex trade-off between latency and throughput exists, which is further complicated by network variability. To address this, we introduce ParetoPipe, an open-source framework that leverages Pareto front analysis to systematically identify optimal partitioning strategies that balance these competing objectives. Our contributions are threefold: we benchmark pipeline partitioned inference on a heterogeneous testbed of Raspberry Pis and a GPU-equipped edge server; we identify Pareto-optimal points to analyze the latency-throughput trade-off under varying network conditions; and we release a flexible, open-source framework to facilitate distributed inference and benchmarking. This toolchain features dual communication backends, PyTorch RPC and a custom lightweight implementation, to minimize overhead and support broad experimentation.

  • 4 authors
·
Jan 12

KV Prediction for Improved Time to First Token

Inference with transformer-based language models begins with a prompt processing step. In this step, the model generates the first output token and stores the KV cache needed for future generation steps. This prompt processing step can be computationally expensive, taking 10s of seconds or more for billion-parameter models on edge devices when prompt lengths or batch sizes rise. This degrades user experience by introducing significant latency into the model's outputs. To reduce the time spent producing the first output (known as the ``time to first token'', or TTFT) of a pretrained model, we introduce a novel method called KV Prediction. In our method, a small auxiliary model is used to process the prompt and produce an approximation of the KV cache used by a base model. This approximated KV cache is then used with the base model for autoregressive generation without the need to query the auxiliary model again. We demonstrate that our method produces a pareto-optimal efficiency-accuracy trade-off when compared to baselines. On TriviaQA, we demonstrate relative accuracy improvements in the range of 15%-50% across a range of TTFT FLOPs budgets. We also demonstrate accuracy improvements of up to 30% on HumanEval python code completion at fixed TTFT FLOPs budgets. Additionally, we benchmark models on an Apple M2 Pro CPU and demonstrate that our improvement in FLOPs translates to a TTFT speedup on hardware. We release our code at https://github.com/apple/corenet/tree/main/projects/kv-prediction .

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 10, 2024 2

MAP: Low-compute Model Merging with Amortized Pareto Fronts via Quadratic Approximation

Model merging has emerged as an effective approach to combine multiple single-task models into a multitask model. This process typically involves computing a weighted average of the model parameters without any additional training. Existing model-merging methods focus on enhancing average task accuracy. However, interference and conflicts between the objectives of different tasks can lead to trade-offs during the merging process. In real-world applications, a set of solutions with various trade-offs can be more informative, helping practitioners make decisions based on diverse preferences. In this paper, we introduce a novel and low-compute algorithm, Model Merging with Amortized Pareto Front (MAP). MAP efficiently identifies a Pareto set of scaling coefficients for merging multiple models, reflecting the trade-offs involved. It amortizes the substantial computational cost of evaluations needed to estimate the Pareto front by using quadratic approximation surrogate models derived from a pre-selected set of scaling coefficients. Experimental results on vision and natural language processing tasks demonstrate that MAP can accurately identify the Pareto front, providing practitioners with flexible solutions to balance competing task objectives. We also introduce Bayesian MAP for scenarios with a relatively low number of tasks and Nested MAP for situations with a high number of tasks, further reducing the computational cost of evaluation.

  • 10 authors
·
Jun 11, 2024

Consistency-diversity-realism Pareto fronts of conditional image generative models

Building world models that accurately and comprehensively represent the real world is the utmost aspiration for conditional image generative models as it would enable their use as world simulators. For these models to be successful world models, they should not only excel at image quality and prompt-image consistency but also ensure high representation diversity. However, current research in generative models mostly focuses on creative applications that are predominantly concerned with human preferences of image quality and aesthetics. We note that generative models have inference time mechanisms - or knobs - that allow the control of generation consistency, quality, and diversity. In this paper, we use state-of-the-art text-to-image and image-and-text-to-image models and their knobs to draw consistency-diversity-realism Pareto fronts that provide a holistic view on consistency-diversity-realism multi-objective. Our experiments suggest that realism and consistency can both be improved simultaneously; however there exists a clear tradeoff between realism/consistency and diversity. By looking at Pareto optimal points, we note that earlier models are better at representation diversity and worse in consistency/realism, and more recent models excel in consistency/realism while decreasing significantly the representation diversity. By computing Pareto fronts on a geodiverse dataset, we find that the first version of latent diffusion models tends to perform better than more recent models in all axes of evaluation, and there exist pronounced consistency-diversity-realism disparities between geographical regions. Overall, our analysis clearly shows that there is no best model and the choice of model should be determined by the downstream application. With this analysis, we invite the research community to consider Pareto fronts as an analytical tool to measure progress towards world models.

  • 8 authors
·
Jun 14, 2024

SlimSearcher: Training Efficiency-Aware Web Agents via Adaptive Reward Gating

Deep research agents have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in complex information-seeking tasks, yet this power comes at a steep computational cost. Driven by accuracy-focused training paradigms, current models adopt brute-force strategies characterized by blind tool dependency and performative reasoning-generating long, redundant trajectories that are far from necessary for resolving these tasks, leading to wasteful tool calls and excessive token consumption. To overcome this efficiency trap, we propose SlimSearcher, a principled framework that pushes the Pareto frontier between accuracy and computational cost across both Supervised Fine-Tuning (SFT) and Reinforcement Learning (RL). In the SFT stage, SlimSearcher employs Pareto-efficient filtration to distill trajectories that are both successful and economical, guiding the model toward inherently efficiency-aware search behaviors. During RL, we introduce Adaptive Reward Gating, a dynamic reward-shaping mechanism that evaluates relative tool and token efficiency within a sampled cohort. By cascading these adaptive efficiency metrics with a strict correctness gate, our approach effectively avoids the brevity bias associated with absolute penalties and mitigates reward hacking. Extensive experiments on long-horizon benchmarks, including GAIA, BrowseComp, and XBenchDeepSearch, demonstrate that SlimSearcher reduces average tool-call rounds by 17%-58% while maintaining or improving accuracy.

  • 7 authors
·
Jun 4 2

Tryage: Real-time, intelligent Routing of User Prompts to Large Language Models

The introduction of the transformer architecture and the self-attention mechanism has led to an explosive production of language models trained on specific downstream tasks and data domains. With over 200, 000 models in the Hugging Face ecosystem, users grapple with selecting and optimizing models to suit multifaceted workflows and data domains while addressing computational, security, and recency concerns. There is an urgent need for machine learning frameworks that can eliminate the burden of model selection and customization and unleash the incredible power of the vast emerging model library for end users. Here, we propose a context-aware routing system, Tryage, that leverages a language model router for optimal selection of expert models from a model library based on analysis of individual input prompts. Inspired by the thalamic router in the brain, Tryage employs a perceptive router to predict down-stream model performance on prompts and, then, makes a routing decision using an objective function that integrates performance predictions with user goals and constraints that are incorporated through flags (e.g., model size, model recency). Tryage allows users to explore a Pareto front and automatically trade-off between task accuracy and secondary goals including minimization of model size, recency, security, verbosity, and readability. Across heterogeneous data sets that include code, text, clinical data, and patents, the Tryage framework surpasses Gorilla and GPT3.5 turbo in dynamic model selection identifying the optimal model with an accuracy of 50.9% , compared to 23.6% by GPT 3.5 Turbo and 10.8% by Gorilla. Conceptually, Tryage demonstrates how routing models can be applied to program and control the behavior of multi-model LLM systems to maximize efficient use of the expanding and evolving language model ecosystem.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 22, 2023

Capability Ceilings in Autoregressive Language Models: Empirical Evidence from Knowledge-Intensive Tasks

We document empirical capability ceilings in decoder-only autoregressive language models across knowledge-intensive tasks. Systematic evaluation of OPT and Pythia model families (70M-30B parameters, spanning 240 times scaling) reveals that knowledge retrieval tasks show negligible accuracy improvement despite smooth loss reduction. On MMLU mathematics benchmarks, accuracy remains flat at 19-20% (below 25% random chance) across all scales while cross-entropy loss decreases by 31%. In contrast, procedural tasks like arithmetic show conventional scaling where both metrics improve together. Attention intervention experiments reveal high sensitivity to perturbation: swapping attention patterns between models causes catastrophic performance collapse (complete accuracy loss) rather than graceful degradation. These measurements have immediate engineering implications: for knowledge-intensive applications using OPT and Pythia architectures, parameter scaling beyond 1-2B offers minimal accuracy gains despite continued loss improvement. Our findings quantify capability-specific scaling failures in these model families to inform resource allocation decisions. Whether these patterns reflect fundamental constraints of decoder-only architectures or implementation-specific limitations remains an open question requiring investigation across diverse architectural approaches.

  • 1 authors
·
Oct 22, 2025

Multi-Objective GFlowNets

In many applications of machine learning, like drug discovery and material design, the goal is to generate candidates that simultaneously maximize a set of objectives. As these objectives are often conflicting, there is no single candidate that simultaneously maximizes all objectives, but rather a set of Pareto-optimal candidates where one objective cannot be improved without worsening another. Moreover, in practice, these objectives are often under-specified, making the diversity of candidates a key consideration. The existing multi-objective optimization methods focus predominantly on covering the Pareto front, failing to capture diversity in the space of candidates. Motivated by the success of GFlowNets for generation of diverse candidates in a single objective setting, in this paper we consider Multi-Objective GFlowNets (MOGFNs). MOGFNs consist of a novel Conditional GFlowNet which models a family of single-objective sub-problems derived by decomposing the multi-objective optimization problem. Our work is the first to empirically demonstrate conditional GFlowNets. Through a series of experiments on synthetic and benchmark tasks, we empirically demonstrate that MOGFNs outperform existing methods in terms of Hypervolume, R2-distance and candidate diversity. We also demonstrate the effectiveness of MOGFNs over existing methods in active learning settings. Finally, we supplement our empirical results with a careful analysis of each component of MOGFNs.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 23, 2022

The Impact of Hyperparameters on Large Language Model Inference Performance: An Evaluation of vLLM and HuggingFace Pipelines

The recent surge of open-source large language models (LLMs) enables developers to create AI-based solutions while maintaining control over aspects such as privacy and compliance, thereby providing governance and ownership of the model deployment process. To utilize these LLMs, inference engines are needed. These engines load the model's weights onto available resources, such as GPUs, and process queries to generate responses. The speed of inference, or performance, of the LLM, is critical for real-time applications, as it computes millions or billions of floating point operations per inference. Recently, advanced inference engines such as vLLM have emerged, incorporating novel mechanisms such as efficient memory management to achieve state-of-the-art performance. In this paper, we analyze the performance, particularly the throughput (tokens generated per unit of time), of 20 LLMs using two inference libraries: vLLM and HuggingFace's pipelines. We investigate how various hyperparameters, which developers must configure, influence inference performance. Our results reveal that throughput landscapes are irregular, with distinct peaks, highlighting the importance of hyperparameter optimization to achieve maximum performance. We also show that applying hyperparameter optimization when upgrading or downgrading the GPU model used for inference can improve throughput from HuggingFace pipelines by an average of 9.16% and 13.7%, respectively.

  • 1 authors
·
Aug 2, 2024 4

Democratizing LLMs: An Exploration of Cost-Performance Trade-offs in Self-Refined Open-Source Models

The dominance of proprietary LLMs has led to restricted access and raised information privacy concerns. High-performing open-source alternatives are crucial for information-sensitive and high-volume applications but often lag behind in performance. To address this gap, we propose (1) A untargeted variant of iterative self-critique and self-refinement devoid of external influence. (2) A novel ranking metric - Performance, Refinement, and Inference Cost Score (PeRFICS) - to find the optimal model for a given task considering refined performance and cost. Our experiments show that SoTA open source models of varying sizes from 7B - 65B, on average, improve 8.2% from their baseline performance. Strikingly, even models with extremely small memory footprints, such as Vicuna-7B, show a 11.74% improvement overall and up to a 25.39% improvement in high-creativity, open ended tasks on the Vicuna benchmark. Vicuna-13B takes it a step further and outperforms ChatGPT post-refinement. This work has profound implications for resource-constrained and information-sensitive environments seeking to leverage LLMs without incurring prohibitive costs, compromising on performance and privacy. The domain-agnostic self-refinement process coupled with our novel ranking metric facilitates informed decision-making in model selection, thereby reducing costs and democratizing access to high-performing language models, as evidenced by case studies.

  • 5 authors
·
Oct 11, 2023

Toward Efficient Agents: Memory, Tool learning, and Planning

Recent years have witnessed increasing interest in extending large language models into agentic systems. While the effectiveness of agents has continued to improve, efficiency, which is crucial for real-world deployment, has often been overlooked. This paper therefore investigates efficiency from three core components of agents: memory, tool learning, and planning, considering costs such as latency, tokens, steps, etc. Aimed at conducting comprehensive research addressing the efficiency of the agentic system itself, we review a broad range of recent approaches that differ in implementation yet frequently converge on shared high-level principles including but not limited to bounding context via compression and management, designing reinforcement learning rewards to minimize tool invocation, and employing controlled search mechanisms to enhance efficiency, which we discuss in detail. Accordingly, we characterize efficiency in two complementary ways: comparing effectiveness under a fixed cost budget, and comparing cost at a comparable level of effectiveness. This trade-off can also be viewed through the Pareto frontier between effectiveness and cost. From this perspective, we also examine efficiency oriented benchmarks by summarizing evaluation protocols for these components and consolidating commonly reported efficiency metrics from both benchmark and methodological studies. Moreover, we discuss the key challenges and future directions, with the goal of providing promising insights.

Parallel Bayesian Optimization of Multiple Noisy Objectives with Expected Hypervolume Improvement

Optimizing multiple competing black-box objectives is a challenging problem in many fields, including science, engineering, and machine learning. Multi-objective Bayesian optimization (MOBO) is a sample-efficient approach for identifying the optimal trade-offs between the objectives. However, many existing methods perform poorly when the observations are corrupted by noise. We propose a novel acquisition function, NEHVI, that overcomes this important practical limitation by applying a Bayesian treatment to the popular expected hypervolume improvement (EHVI) criterion and integrating over this uncertainty in the Pareto frontier. We argue that, even in the noiseless setting, generating multiple candidates in parallel is an incarnation of EHVI with uncertainty in the Pareto frontier and therefore can be addressed using the same underlying technique. Through this lens, we derive a natural parallel variant, qNEHVI, that reduces computational complexity of parallel EHVI from exponential to polynomial with respect to the batch size. qNEHVI is one-step Bayes-optimal for hypervolume maximization in both noisy and noiseless environments, and we show that it can be optimized effectively with gradient-based methods via sample average approximation. Empirically, we demonstrate not only that qNEHVI is substantially more robust to observation noise than existing MOBO approaches, but also that it achieves state-of-the-art optimization performance and competitive wall-times in large-batch environments.

  • 3 authors
·
Oct 25, 2021

Performance Scaling via Optimal Transport: Enabling Data Selection from Partially Revealed Sources

Traditionally, data selection has been studied in settings where all samples from prospective sources are fully revealed to a machine learning developer. However, in practical data exchange scenarios, data providers often reveal only a limited subset of samples before an acquisition decision is made. Recently, there have been efforts to fit scaling laws that predict model performance at any size and data source composition using the limited available samples. However, these scaling functions are black-box, computationally expensive to fit, highly susceptible to overfitting, or/and difficult to optimize for data selection. This paper proposes a framework called <projektor>, which predicts model performance and supports data selection decisions based on partial samples of prospective data sources. Our approach distinguishes itself from existing work by introducing a novel *two-stage* performance inference process. In the first stage, we leverage the Optimal Transport distance to predict the model's performance for any data mixture ratio within the range of disclosed data sizes. In the second stage, we extrapolate the performance to larger undisclosed data sizes based on a novel parameter-free mapping technique inspired by neural scaling laws. We further derive an efficient gradient-based method to select data sources based on the projected model performance. Evaluation over a diverse range of applications demonstrates that <projektor> significantly improves existing performance scaling approaches in terms of both the accuracy of performance inference and the computation costs associated with constructing the performance predictor. Also, <projektor> outperforms by a wide margin in data selection effectiveness compared to a range of other off-the-shelf solutions.

  • 4 authors
·
Jul 5, 2023

Least-Loaded Expert Parallelism: Load Balancing An Imbalanced Mixture-of-Experts

Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) models are typically pre-trained with explicit load-balancing constraints to ensure statistically balanced expert routing. Despite this, we observe that even well-trained MoE models exhibit significantly imbalanced routing. This behavior is arguably natural-and even desirable - as imbalanced routing allows models to concentrate domain-specific knowledge within a subset of experts. Expert parallelism (EP) is designed to scale MoE models by distributing experts across multiple devices, but with a less-discussed assumption of balanced routing. Under extreme imbalance, EP can funnel a disproportionate number of tokens to a small number of experts, leading to compute- and memory-bound failures on overloaded devices during post-training or inference, where explicit load balancing is often inapplicable. We propose Least-Loaded Expert Parallelism (LLEP), a novel EP algorithm that dynamically reroutes excess tokens and associated expert parameters from overloaded devices to underutilized ones. This ensures that all devices complete their workloads within the minimum collective latency while respecting memory constraints. Across different model scales, LLEP achieves up to 5x speedup and 4x reduction in peak memory usage compared to standard EP. This enables faster and higher-throughput post-training and inference, with ~1.9x faster for gpt-oss-120b. We support our method with extensive theoretical analysis and comprehensive empirical evaluations, including ablation studies. These results illuminate key trade-offs and enable a principled framework for hardware-specific hyper-parameter tuning to achieve optimal performance.

From Medprompt to o1: Exploration of Run-Time Strategies for Medical Challenge Problems and Beyond

Run-time steering strategies like Medprompt are valuable for guiding large language models (LLMs) to top performance on challenging tasks. Medprompt demonstrates that a general LLM can be focused to deliver state-of-the-art performance on specialized domains like medicine by using a prompt to elicit a run-time strategy involving chain of thought reasoning and ensembling. OpenAI's o1-preview model represents a new paradigm, where a model is designed to do run-time reasoning before generating final responses. We seek to understand the behavior of o1-preview on a diverse set of medical challenge problem benchmarks. Following on the Medprompt study with GPT-4, we systematically evaluate the o1-preview model across various medical benchmarks. Notably, even without prompting techniques, o1-preview largely outperforms the GPT-4 series with Medprompt. We further systematically study the efficacy of classic prompt engineering strategies, as represented by Medprompt, within the new paradigm of reasoning models. We found that few-shot prompting hinders o1's performance, suggesting that in-context learning may no longer be an effective steering approach for reasoning-native models. While ensembling remains viable, it is resource-intensive and requires careful cost-performance optimization. Our cost and accuracy analysis across run-time strategies reveals a Pareto frontier, with GPT-4o representing a more affordable option and o1-preview achieving state-of-the-art performance at higher cost. Although o1-preview offers top performance, GPT-4o with steering strategies like Medprompt retains value in specific contexts. Moreover, we note that the o1-preview model has reached near-saturation on many existing medical benchmarks, underscoring the need for new, challenging benchmarks. We close with reflections on general directions for inference-time computation with LLMs.

  • 7 authors
·
Nov 5, 2024 1

Rethinking Thinking Tokens: LLMs as Improvement Operators

Reasoning training incentivizes LLMs to produce long chains of thought (long CoT), which among other things, allows them to explore solution strategies with self-checking. This results in higher accuracy, but inflates context length, token/compute cost, and answer latency. We ask: Can current models leverage their metacognition to provide other combinations on this Pareto frontier, e.g., better accuracy with lower context length and/or latency? Abstractly, we view the model as an improvement operator on its own "thoughts" with a continuum of possible strategies. We identify an interesting inference family Parallel-Distill-Refine (PDR), which performs the following: (i) generate diverse drafts in parallel; (ii) distill them into a bounded, textual workspace; and (iii) refine conditioned on this workspace, producing an output that seeds the next round. Importantly, context length (hence compute cost) is controllable via degree of parallelism, and is no longer conflated with the total number of generated tokens. We report PDR instantiations of current models that give better accuracy than long CoT while incurring lower latency. Setting degree of parallelism to 1 yields an interesting subcase, Sequential Refinement (SR) (iteratively improve a single candidate answer) which provides performance superior to long CoT. Success of such model orchestrations raises the question whether further training could shift the Pareto frontier. To this end, we train an 8B thinking model with Reinforcement Learning (RL) to make it consistent with PDR as the inference method. On math tasks with verifiable answers, iterative pipelines surpass single-pass baselines at matched sequential budgets, with PDR delivering the largest gains (e.g., +11% on AIME 2024 and +9% on AIME 2025).

  • 9 authors
·
Oct 1, 2025 2

Benchmarking on Tasks That Matter: Dataset Selection for Preserving Model Rankings

Benchmarks of machine learning models often include many datasets, making evaluation expensive. For efficiency, it is preferable to perform evaluations on small, representative datasets instead. The selection of such subsets typically relies on heuristics and is rarely analyzed for the robustness of the resulting model rankings. We introduce a framework to perform the task of selecting datasets subsets with an evaluation of how different selection strategies preserve the global model rankings. Our framework includes bootstrap aggregation, which provides valid confidence intervals, allowing a principled comparison of selection strategies. We consider clustering, design criteria (A/D-optimality), random baselines, and greedy farthest-first (FAFI). For the latter, we derive upper bounds on selection quality in terms of ranking errors as a function of the number of selected datasets. Empirically, in time series classification (TSC, 112 datasets) and in a supplementary natural language processing benchmark derived from MTEB (57 tasks), several selection strategies improve rank preservation compared with random subsets, including simple FAFI. In contrast, in recommender systems (30 datasets), the improvement of strategies over random selection is small and typically statistically insignificant. For TSC, our best-performing strategy achieves a Spearman correlation of 0.95 with the full benchmark model rankings using only five selected datasets. Additional experiments indicate that the effectiveness of selection approaches depends on both the quality of dataset representations and the scale of the benchmarking regime.

  • 2 authors
·
Jun 25

PERFOPT-Bench: Evaluating Coding Agents on Software Performance Optimization

Coding-agent benchmarks have largely measured whether agents can produce functionally correct patches, but production software also demands measurable speedups on real execution targets. Performance optimization is a distinct agentic task: agents must profile executions, diagnose cross-layer bottlenecks, edit code without breaking correctness, and verify that gains are reproducible rather than measurement artifacts. We introduce PERFOPT-Bench, a benchmark for evaluating this full performance-engineering loop. Each task provides a correct but deliberately suboptimal codebase and asks the agent to improve a target performance metric; scoring requires hidden correctness tests, verified-speedup measurement, and trajectory-level audit. We evaluate 7 agent stacks with different LLMs and agent frameworks on 7 long-horizon optimization tasks. The results show that optimization performance is workload-dependent rather than determined by model identity alone: no single stack dominates, and changing the agent framework can materially change the same LLM's per-task speedup profile. We further find that raw speedup is unsafe as a benchmark score, since some large gains arise from benchmark-specific shortcut exploitation; an exploratory relay pilot suggests that restarting from an externalized optimization summary can recover additional headroom after an initial session stops. The benchmark and our evaluation are available at: https://anonymous.4open.science/r/Dataset-D3CC.

  • 6 authors
·
Jul 7

Why Has Predicting Downstream Capabilities of Frontier AI Models with Scale Remained Elusive?

Predictable behavior from scaling advanced AI systems is an extremely desirable property. Although a well-established literature exists on how pretraining performance scales, the literature on how particular downstream capabilities scale is significantly muddier. In this work, we take a step back and ask: why has predicting specific downstream capabilities with scale remained elusive? While many factors are certainly responsible, we identify a new factor that makes modeling scaling behavior on widely used multiple-choice question-answering benchmarks challenging. Using five model families and twelve well-established multiple-choice benchmarks, we show that downstream performance is computed from negative log likelihoods via a sequence of transformations that progressively degrade the statistical relationship between performance and scale. We then reveal the mechanism causing this degradation: downstream metrics require comparing the correct choice against a small number of specific incorrect choices, meaning accurately predicting downstream capabilities requires predicting not just how probability mass concentrates on the correct choice with scale, but also how probability mass fluctuates on specific incorrect choices with scale. We empirically study how probability mass on the correct choice co-varies with probability mass on incorrect choices with increasing compute, suggesting that scaling laws for incorrect choices might be achievable. Our work also explains why pretraining scaling laws are commonly regarded as more predictable than downstream capabilities and contributes towards establishing scaling-predictable evaluations of frontier AI models.

  • 9 authors
·
Jun 6, 2024

Joint Evaluation of Fairness and Relevance in Recommender Systems with Pareto Frontier

Fairness and relevance are two important aspects of recommender systems (RSs). Typically, they are evaluated either (i) separately by individual measures of fairness and relevance, or (ii) jointly using a single measure that accounts for fairness with respect to relevance. However, approach (i) often does not provide a reliable joint estimate of the goodness of the models, as it has two different best models: one for fairness and another for relevance. Approach (ii) is also problematic because these measures tend to be ad-hoc and do not relate well to traditional relevance measures, like NDCG. Motivated by this, we present a new approach for jointly evaluating fairness and relevance in RSs: Distance to Pareto Frontier (DPFR). Given some user-item interaction data, we compute their Pareto frontier for a pair of existing relevance and fairness measures, and then use the distance from the frontier as a measure of the jointly achievable fairness and relevance. Our approach is modular and intuitive as it can be computed with existing measures. Experiments with 4 RS models, 3 re-ranking strategies, and 6 datasets show that existing metrics have inconsistent associations with our Pareto-optimal solution, making DPFR a more robust and theoretically well-founded joint measure for assessing fairness and relevance. Our code: https://github.com/theresiavr/DPFR-recsys-evaluation

  • 4 authors
·
Feb 17, 2025

Intelligence per Watt: Measuring Intelligence Efficiency of Local AI

Large language model (LLM) queries are predominantly processed by frontier models in centralized cloud infrastructure. Rapidly growing demand strains this paradigm, and cloud providers struggle to scale infrastructure at pace. Two advances enable us to rethink this paradigm: small LMs (<=20B active parameters) now achieve competitive performance to frontier models on many tasks, and local accelerators (e.g., Apple M4 Max) run these models at interactive latencies. This raises the question: can local inference viably redistribute demand from centralized infrastructure? Answering this requires measuring whether local LMs can accurately answer real-world queries and whether they can do so efficiently enough to be practical on power-constrained devices (i.e., laptops). We propose intelligence per watt (IPW), task accuracy divided by unit of power, as a metric for assessing capability and efficiency of local inference across model-accelerator pairs. We conduct a large-scale empirical study across 20+ state-of-the-art local LMs, 8 accelerators, and a representative subset of LLM traffic: 1M real-world single-turn chat and reasoning queries. For each query, we measure accuracy, energy, latency, and power. Our analysis reveals 3 findings. First, local LMs can accurately answer 88.7% of single-turn chat and reasoning queries with accuracy varying by domain. Second, from 2023-2025, IPW improved 5.3x and local query coverage rose from 23.2% to 71.3%. Third, local accelerators achieve at least 1.4x lower IPW than cloud accelerators running identical models, revealing significant headroom for optimization. These findings demonstrate that local inference can meaningfully redistribute demand from centralized infrastructure, with IPW serving as the critical metric for tracking this transition. We release our IPW profiling harness for systematic intelligence-per-watt benchmarking.

Stanford Stanford AI
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Nov 11, 2025 3

Accelerating Neural Architecture Search using Performance Prediction

Methods for neural network hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling are computationally expensive due to the need to train a large number of model configurations. In this paper, we show that standard frequentist regression models can predict the final performance of partially trained model configurations using features based on network architectures, hyperparameters, and time-series validation performance data. We empirically show that our performance prediction models are much more effective than prominent Bayesian counterparts, are simpler to implement, and are faster to train. Our models can predict final performance in both visual classification and language modeling domains, are effective for predicting performance of drastically varying model architectures, and can even generalize between model classes. Using these prediction models, we also propose an early stopping method for hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling, which obtains a speedup of a factor up to 6x in both hyperparameter optimization and meta-modeling. Finally, we empirically show that our early stopping method can be seamlessly incorporated into both reinforcement learning-based architecture selection algorithms and bandit based search methods. Through extensive experimentation, we empirically show our performance prediction models and early stopping algorithm are state-of-the-art in terms of prediction accuracy and speedup achieved while still identifying the optimal model configurations.

  • 4 authors
·
May 30, 2017

Order-Preserving GFlowNets

Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets) have been introduced as a method to sample a diverse set of candidates with probabilities proportional to a given reward. However, GFlowNets can only be used with a predefined scalar reward, which can be either computationally expensive or not directly accessible, in the case of multi-objective optimization (MOO) tasks for example. Moreover, to prioritize identifying high-reward candidates, the conventional practice is to raise the reward to a higher exponent, the optimal choice of which may vary across different environments. To address these issues, we propose Order-Preserving GFlowNets (OP-GFNs), which sample with probabilities in proportion to a learned reward function that is consistent with a provided (partial) order on the candidates, thus eliminating the need for an explicit formulation of the reward function. We theoretically prove that the training process of OP-GFNs gradually sparsifies the learned reward landscape in single-objective maximization tasks. The sparsification concentrates on candidates of a higher hierarchy in the ordering, ensuring exploration at the beginning and exploitation towards the end of the training. We demonstrate OP-GFN's state-of-the-art performance in single-objective maximization (totally ordered) and multi-objective Pareto front approximation (partially ordered) tasks, including synthetic datasets, molecule generation, and neural architecture search.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 30, 2023

carps: A Framework for Comparing N Hyperparameter Optimizers on M Benchmarks

Hyperparameter Optimization (HPO) is crucial to develop well-performing machine learning models. In order to ease prototyping and benchmarking of HPO methods, we propose carps, a benchmark framework for Comprehensive Automated Research Performance Studies allowing to evaluate N optimizers on M benchmark tasks. In this first release of carps, we focus on the four most important types of HPO task types: blackbox, multi-fidelity, multi-objective and multi-fidelity-multi-objective. With 3 336 tasks from 5 community benchmark collections and 28 variants of 9 optimizer families, we offer the biggest go-to library to date to evaluate and compare HPO methods. The carps framework relies on a purpose-built, lightweight interface, gluing together optimizers and benchmark tasks. It also features an analysis pipeline, facilitating the evaluation of optimizers on benchmarks. However, navigating a huge number of tasks while developing and comparing methods can be computationally infeasible. To address this, we obtain a subset of representative tasks by minimizing the star discrepancy of the subset, in the space spanned by the full set. As a result, we propose an initial subset of 10 to 30 diverse tasks for each task type, and include functionality to re-compute subsets as more benchmarks become available, enabling efficient evaluations. We also establish a first set of baseline results on these tasks as a measure for future comparisons. With carps (https://www.github.com/automl/CARP-S), we make an important step in the standardization of HPO evaluation.

  • 17 authors
·
Jun 6, 2025

Preference Learning Algorithms Do Not Learn Preference Rankings

Preference learning algorithms (e.g., RLHF and DPO) are frequently used to steer LLMs to produce generations that are more preferred by humans, but our understanding of their inner workings is still limited. In this work, we study the conventional wisdom that preference learning trains models to assign higher likelihoods to more preferred outputs than less preferred outputs, measured via ranking accuracy. Surprisingly, we find that most state-of-the-art preference-tuned models achieve a ranking accuracy of less than 60% on common preference datasets. We furthermore derive the idealized ranking accuracy that a preference-tuned LLM would achieve if it optimized the DPO or RLHF objective perfectly. We demonstrate that existing models exhibit a significant alignment gap -- i.e., a gap between the observed and idealized ranking accuracies. We attribute this discrepancy to the DPO objective, which is empirically and theoretically ill-suited to fix even mild ranking errors in the reference model, and derive a simple and efficient formula for quantifying the difficulty of learning a given preference datapoint. Finally, we demonstrate that ranking accuracy strongly correlates with the empirically popular win rate metric when the model is close to the reference model used in the objective, shedding further light on the differences between on-policy (e.g., RLHF) and off-policy (e.g., DPO) preference learning algorithms.

  • 7 authors
·
May 29, 2024

Threshold-Consistent Margin Loss for Open-World Deep Metric Learning

Existing losses used in deep metric learning (DML) for image retrieval often lead to highly non-uniform intra-class and inter-class representation structures across test classes and data distributions. When combined with the common practice of using a fixed threshold to declare a match, this gives rise to significant performance variations in terms of false accept rate (FAR) and false reject rate (FRR) across test classes and data distributions. We define this issue in DML as threshold inconsistency. In real-world applications, such inconsistency often complicates the threshold selection process when deploying commercial image retrieval systems. To measure this inconsistency, we propose a novel variance-based metric called Operating-Point-Inconsistency-Score (OPIS) that quantifies the variance in the operating characteristics across classes. Using the OPIS metric, we find that achieving high accuracy levels in a DML model does not automatically guarantee threshold consistency. In fact, our investigation reveals a Pareto frontier in the high-accuracy regime, where existing methods to improve accuracy often lead to degradation in threshold consistency. To address this trade-off, we introduce the Threshold-Consistent Margin (TCM) loss, a simple yet effective regularization technique that promotes uniformity in representation structures across classes by selectively penalizing hard sample pairs. Extensive experiments demonstrate TCM's effectiveness in enhancing threshold consistency while preserving accuracy, simplifying the threshold selection process in practical DML settings.

  • 7 authors
·
Jul 8, 2023

FAROS: Fair Graph Generation via Attribute Switching Mechanisms

Recent advancements in graph diffusion models (GDMs) have enabled the synthesis of realistic network structures, yet ensuring fairness in the generated data remains a critical challenge. Existing solutions attempt to mitigate bias by re-training the GDMs with ad-hoc fairness constraints. Conversely, with this work, we propose FAROS, a novel FAir graph geneRatiOn framework leveraging attribute Switching mechanisms and directly running in the generation process of the pre-trained GDM. Technically, our approach works by altering nodes' sensitive attributes during the generation. To this end, FAROS calculates the optimal fraction of switching nodes, and selects the diffusion step to perform the switch by setting tailored multi-criteria constraints to preserve the node-topology profile from the original distribution (a proxy for accuracy) while ensuring the edge independence on the sensitive attributes for the generated graph (a proxy for fairness). Our experiments on benchmark datasets for link prediction demonstrate that the proposed approach effectively reduces fairness discrepancies while maintaining comparable (or even higher) accuracy performance to other similar baselines. Noteworthy, FAROS is also able to strike a better accuracy-fairness trade-off than other competitors in some of the tested settings under the Pareto optimality concept, demonstrating the effectiveness of the imposed multi-criteria constraints.

  • 5 authors
·
Jul 4, 2025 1

An Information-Theoretic Framework for Credit Risk Modeling: Unifying Industry Practice with Statistical Theory for Fair and Interpretable Scorecards

Credit risk modeling relies extensively on Weight of Evidence (WoE) and Information Value (IV) for feature engineering, and Population Stability Index (PSI) for drift monitoring, yet their theoretical foundations remain disconnected. We establish a unified information-theoretic framework revealing these industry-standard metrics as instances of classical information divergences. Specifically, we prove that IV exactly equals PSI (Jeffreys divergence) computed between good and bad credit outcomes over identical bins. Through the delta method applied to WoE transformations, we derive standard errors for IV and PSI, enabling formal hypothesis testing and probabilistic fairness constraints for the first time. We formalize credit modeling's inherent performance-fairness trade-off as maximizing IV for predictive power while minimizing IV for protected attributes. Using automated binning with depth-1 XGBoost stumps, we compare three encoding strategies: logistic regression with one-hot encoding, WoE transformation, and constrained XGBoost. All methods achieve comparable predictive performance (AUC 0.82-0.84), demonstrating that principled, information-theoretic binning outweighs encoding choice. Mixed-integer programming traces Pareto-efficient solutions along the performance-fairness frontier with uncertainty quantification. This framework bridges theory and practice, providing the first rigorous statistical foundation for widely-used credit risk metrics while offering principled tools for balancing accuracy and fairness in regulated environments.

  • 2 authors
·
Sep 10, 2025

A Survey on Inference Optimization Techniques for Mixture of Experts Models

The emergence of large-scale Mixture of Experts (MoE) models has marked a significant advancement in artificial intelligence, offering enhanced model capacity and computational efficiency through conditional computation. However, the deployment and inference of these models present substantial challenges in terms of computational resources, latency, and energy efficiency. This comprehensive survey systematically analyzes the current landscape of inference optimization techniques for MoE models across the entire system stack. We first establish a taxonomical framework that categorizes optimization approaches into model-level, system-level, and hardware-level optimizations. At the model level, we examine architectural innovations including efficient expert design, attention mechanisms, various compression techniques such as pruning, quantization, and knowledge distillation, as well as algorithm improvement including dynamic routing strategies and expert merging methods. At the system level, we investigate distributed computing approaches, load balancing mechanisms, and efficient scheduling algorithms that enable scalable deployment. Furthermore, we delve into hardware-specific optimizations and co-design strategies that maximize throughput and energy efficiency. This survey not only provides a structured overview of existing solutions but also identifies key challenges and promising research directions in MoE inference optimization. Our comprehensive analysis serves as a valuable resource for researchers and practitioners working on large-scale deployment of MoE models in resource-constrained environments. To facilitate ongoing updates and the sharing of cutting-edge advances in MoE inference optimization research, we have established a repository accessible at https://github.com/MoE-Inf/awesome-moe-inference/.

  • 8 authors
·
Dec 18, 2024

IBCL: Zero-shot Model Generation for Task Trade-offs in Continual Learning

Like generic multi-task learning, continual learning has the nature of multi-objective optimization, and therefore faces a trade-off between the performance of different tasks. That is, to optimize for the current task distribution, it may need to compromise performance on some previous tasks. This means that there exist multiple models that are Pareto-optimal at different times, each addressing a distinct task performance trade-off. Researchers have discussed how to train particular models to address specific trade-off preferences. However, existing algorithms require training overheads proportional to the number of preferences -- a large burden when there are multiple, possibly infinitely many, preferences. As a response, we propose Imprecise Bayesian Continual Learning (IBCL). Upon a new task, IBCL (1) updates a knowledge base in the form of a convex hull of model parameter distributions and (2) obtains particular models to address task trade-off preferences with zero-shot. That is, IBCL does not require any additional training overhead to generate preference-addressing models from its knowledge base. We show that models obtained by IBCL have guarantees in identifying the Pareto optimal parameters. Moreover, experiments on standard image classification and NLP tasks support this guarantee. Statistically, IBCL improves average per-task accuracy by at most 23% and peak per-task accuracy by at most 15% with respect to the baseline methods, with steadily near-zero or positive backward transfer. Most importantly, IBCL significantly reduces the training overhead from training 1 model per preference to at most 3 models for all preferences.

  • 4 authors
·
May 24, 2023

LLM Swiss Round: Aggregating Multi-Benchmark Performance via Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics

The rapid proliferation of Large Language Models (LLMs) and diverse specialized benchmarks necessitates a shift from fragmented, task-specific metrics to a holistic, competitive ranking system that effectively aggregates performance across multiple ability dimensions. Primarily using static scoring, current evaluation methods are fundamentally limited. They struggle to determine the proper mix ratio across diverse benchmarks, and critically, they fail to capture a model's dynamic competitive fitness or its vulnerability when confronted with sequential, high-stakes tasks. To address this, we introduce the novel Competitive Swiss-System Dynamics (CSD) framework. CSD simulates a multi-round, sequential contest where models are dynamically paired across a curated sequence of benchmarks based on their accumulated win-loss record. And Monte Carlo Simulation (N=100,000 iterations) is used to approximate the statistically robust Expected Win Score (E[S_m]), which eliminates the noise of random pairing and early-round luck. Furthermore, we implement a Failure Sensitivity Analysis by parameterizing the per-round elimination quantity (T_k), which allows us to profile models based on their risk appetite--distinguishing between robust generalists and aggressive specialists. We demonstrate that CSD provides a more nuanced and context-aware ranking than traditional aggregate scoring and static pairwise models, representing a vital step towards risk-informed, next-generation LLM evaluation.

ByteDance-Seed ByteDance Seed
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Dec 24, 2025 2

QuantSightBench: Evaluating LLM Quantitative Forecasting with Prediction Intervals

Forecasting has become a natural benchmark for reasoning under uncertainty. Yet existing evaluations of large language models remain limited to judgmental tasks in simple formats, such as binary or multiple-choice questions. In practice, however, forecasting spans a far broader scope. Across domains such as economics, public health, and social demographics, decisions hinge on numerical estimates over continuous quantities, a capability that current benchmarks do not capture. Evaluating such estimates requires a format that makes uncertainty explicit and testable. We propose prediction intervals as a natural and rigorous interface for this purpose. They demand scale awareness, internal consistency across confidence levels, and calibration over a continuum of outcomes, making them a more suitable evaluation format than point estimates for numerical forecasting. To assess this capability, we introduce a new benchmark QuantSightBench, and evaluate frontier models under multiple settings, assessing both empirical coverage and interval sharpness. Our results show that none of the 11 evaluated frontier and open-weight models achieves the 90\% coverage target, with the top performers Gemini 3.1 Pro (79.1\%), Grok 4 (76.4\%), and GPT-5.4 (75.3\%) all falling at least 10 percentage points short. Calibration degrades sharply at extreme magnitudes, revealing systematic overconfidence across all evaluated models.

  • 2 authors
·
Apr 16

InstaTune: Instantaneous Neural Architecture Search During Fine-Tuning

One-Shot Neural Architecture Search (NAS) algorithms often rely on training a hardware agnostic super-network for a domain specific task. Optimal sub-networks are then extracted from the trained super-network for different hardware platforms. However, training super-networks from scratch can be extremely time consuming and compute intensive especially for large models that rely on a two-stage training process of pre-training and fine-tuning. State of the art pre-trained models are available for a wide range of tasks, but their large sizes significantly limits their applicability on various hardware platforms. We propose InstaTune, a method that leverages off-the-shelf pre-trained weights for large models and generates a super-network during the fine-tuning stage. InstaTune has multiple benefits. Firstly, since the process happens during fine-tuning, it minimizes the overall time and compute resources required for NAS. Secondly, the sub-networks extracted are optimized for the target task, unlike prior work that optimizes on the pre-training objective. Finally, InstaTune is easy to "plug and play" in existing frameworks. By using multi-objective evolutionary search algorithms along with lightly trained predictors, we find Pareto-optimal sub-networks that outperform their respective baselines across different performance objectives such as accuracy and MACs. Specifically, we demonstrate that our approach performs well across both unimodal (ViT and BERT) and multi-modal (BEiT-3) transformer based architectures.

  • 5 authors
·
Aug 29, 2023

Scales++: Compute Efficient Evaluation Subset Selection with Cognitive Scales Embeddings

The prohibitive cost of evaluating large language models (LLMs) on comprehensive benchmarks necessitates the creation of small yet representative data subsets (i.e., tiny benchmarks) that enable efficient assessment while retaining predictive fidelity. Current methods for this task operate under a model-centric paradigm, selecting benchmarking items based on the collective performance of existing models. Such approaches are limited by large upfront costs, an inability to immediately handle new benchmarks (`cold-start'), and the fragile assumption that future models will share the failure patterns of their predecessors. In this work, we challenge this paradigm and propose a item-centric approach to benchmark subset selection, arguing that selection should be based on the intrinsic properties of the task items themselves, rather than on model-specific failure patterns. We instantiate this item-centric efficient benchmarking approach via a novel method, Scales++, where data selection is based on the cognitive demands of the benchmark samples. Empirically, we show Scales++ reduces the upfront selection cost by over 18x while achieving competitive predictive fidelity. On the Open LLM Leaderboard, using just a 0.5\% data subset, we predict full benchmark scores with a 2.9% mean absolute error. We demonstrate that this item-centric approach enables more efficient model evaluation without significant fidelity degradation, while also providing better cold-start performance and more interpretable benchmarking.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 30, 2025

Blockwise Flow Matching: Improving Flow Matching Models For Efficient High-Quality Generation

Recently, Flow Matching models have pushed the boundaries of high-fidelity data generation across a wide range of domains. It typically employs a single large network to learn the entire generative trajectory from noise to data. Despite their effectiveness, this design struggles to capture distinct signal characteristics across timesteps simultaneously and incurs substantial inference costs due to the iterative evaluation of the entire model. To address these limitations, we propose Blockwise Flow Matching (BFM), a novel framework that partitions the generative trajectory into multiple temporal segments, each modeled by smaller but specialized velocity blocks. This blockwise design enables each block to specialize effectively in its designated interval, improving inference efficiency and sample quality. To further enhance generation fidelity, we introduce a Semantic Feature Guidance module that explicitly conditions velocity blocks on semantically rich features aligned with pretrained representations. Additionally, we propose a lightweight Feature Residual Approximation strategy that preserves semantic quality while significantly reducing inference cost. Extensive experiments on ImageNet 256x256 demonstrate that BFM establishes a substantially improved Pareto frontier over existing Flow Matching methods, achieving 2.1x to 4.9x accelerations in inference complexity at comparable generation performance. Code is available at https://github.com/mlvlab/BFM.

  • 4 authors
·
Oct 24, 2025

Frontier Coding Agents Can Now Implement an AlphaZero Self-Play Machine Learning Pipeline For Connect Four That Performs Comparably to an External Solver

Forecasting when AI systems will become capable of meaningfully accelerating AI research is a central challenge for AI safety. Existing benchmarks measure broad capability growth, but may not provide ample early warning signals for recursive self-improvement. We propose measuring AI's capability to autonomously implement end-to-end machine learning pipelines from past AI research breakthroughs, given a minimal task description. By providing a concise task description instead of the full prior work as reference, we hope to better elicit emerging AI research taste. We introduce a proof-of-concept benchmark in which frontier coding agents autonomously implement an AlphaZero-style machine learning pipeline for Connect Four on consumer hardware within a three-hour budget, and we evaluate the resulting game AIs in a round-robin tournament anchored to the Pascal Pons Connect Four solver. Across four agents with eight trials each, we find substantial differentiation: Claude Opus 4.7 won as first-mover against Pons in seven of eight trials, statistically significantly better than the other agents tested, none of which exceeded two of eight. The task, which no frontier agent could reliably complete when we began development in January of 2026, is now near-saturation. Our evaluation also surfaced anomalous behavior in GPT-5.4, which consistently used far less of its allocated time budget than other agents. A follow-up 16-trial probe using shorter, less evaluation-coded prompts substantially increased GPT-5.4's time-budget usage, consistent with but not diagnostic of sandbagging; Bradley-Terry ratings across probe conditions showed only directional differences, despite significant differences in time-budget usage. We release our data, code, and prompts to support reproduction and extension.

  • 3 authors
·
Apr 28

SciPredict: Can LLMs Predict the Outcomes of Scientific Experiments in Natural Sciences?

Accelerating scientific discovery requires the identification of which experiments would yield the best outcomes before committing resources to costly physical validation. While existing benchmarks evaluate LLMs on scientific knowledge and reasoning, their ability to predict experimental outcomes - a task where AI could significantly exceed human capabilities - remains largely underexplored. We introduce SciPredict, a benchmark comprising 405 tasks derived from recent empirical studies in 33 specialized sub-fields of physics, biology, and chemistry. SciPredict addresses two critical questions: (a) can LLMs predict the outcome of scientific experiments with sufficient accuracy? and (b) can such predictions be reliably used in the scientific research process? Evaluations reveal fundamental limitations on both fronts. Model accuracies are 14-26% and human expert performance is approx20%. Although some frontier models exceed human performance model accuracy is still far below what would enable reliable experimental guidance. Even within the limited performance, models fail to distinguish reliable predictions from unreliable ones, achieving only approx20% accuracy regardless of their confidence or whether they judge outcomes as predictable without physical experimentation. Human experts, in contrast, demonstrate strong calibration: their accuracy increases from approx5% to approx80% as they deem outcomes more predictable without conducting the experiment. SciPredict establishes a rigorous framework demonstrating that superhuman performance in experimental science requires not just better predictions, but better awareness of prediction reliability. For reproducibility all our data and code are provided at https://github.com/scaleapi/scipredict

ScaleAI Scale AI
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Apr 11 1

APQ: Joint Search for Network Architecture, Pruning and Quantization Policy

We present APQ for efficient deep learning inference on resource-constrained hardware. Unlike previous methods that separately search the neural architecture, pruning policy, and quantization policy, we optimize them in a joint manner. To deal with the larger design space it brings, a promising approach is to train a quantization-aware accuracy predictor to quickly get the accuracy of the quantized model and feed it to the search engine to select the best fit. However, training this quantization-aware accuracy predictor requires collecting a large number of quantized <model, accuracy> pairs, which involves quantization-aware finetuning and thus is highly time-consuming. To tackle this challenge, we propose to transfer the knowledge from a full-precision (i.e., fp32) accuracy predictor to the quantization-aware (i.e., int8) accuracy predictor, which greatly improves the sample efficiency. Besides, collecting the dataset for the fp32 accuracy predictor only requires to evaluate neural networks without any training cost by sampling from a pretrained once-for-all network, which is highly efficient. Extensive experiments on ImageNet demonstrate the benefits of our joint optimization approach. With the same accuracy, APQ reduces the latency/energy by 2x/1.3x over MobileNetV2+HAQ. Compared to the separate optimization approach (ProxylessNAS+AMC+HAQ), APQ achieves 2.3% higher ImageNet accuracy while reducing orders of magnitude GPU hours and CO2 emission, pushing the frontier for green AI that is environmental-friendly. The code and video are publicly available.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 15, 2020

FAPO: Fully Autonomous Prompt Optimization of Multi-Step LLM Pipelines

Multi-step LLM pipelines fail through interactions among retrieval, reasoning, and formatting steps, so prompt-only optimization can miss bottlenecks in the chain. We present FAPO (Fully Autonomous Prompt Optimization), a framework that lets Claude Code optimize an LLM pipeline inside a standardized codebase. FAPO evaluates a pipeline, inspects intermediate steps, diagnoses failures, proposes scoped changes, and validates variants repeatedly to optimize against a score function. It first tries prompt edits and, only when prompt optimization appears insufficient, changes chain structure within the permitted scope when attribution identifies a structural bottleneck. Across six benchmarks and three task models, FAPO beats the baseline GEPA in 15 of 18 model-benchmark comparisons. In 11 model-benchmark comparisons, FAPO wins with non-overlapping mean pm trial-standard-deviation ranges, and the mean FAPO-GEPA gain is +14.1 pp. In the six HoVer and IFBench comparisons where prompt-first search escalated to structural changes, FAPO wins all six with a mean gain of +33.8 pp. FAPO also improves performance on security tasks: on CTIBench-RCM, a security CVE-to-CWE task, prompt-only FAPO lifts test accuracy by +4.0 pp on GPT-5, +7.1 pp on Foundation-Sec-8B-Instruct, and +2.0 pp on Foundation-Sec-8B-Reasoning. These results position FAPO as a state-of-the-art pipeline optimization technique for both general-purpose and security-focused tasks.

Rethinking the shape convention of an MLP

Multi-layer perceptrons (MLPs) conventionally follow a narrow-wide-narrow design where skip connections operate at the input/output dimensions while processing occurs in expanded hidden spaces. We challenge this convention by proposing wide-narrow-wide (Hourglass) MLP blocks where skip connections operate at expanded dimensions while residual computation flows through narrow bottlenecks. This inversion leverages higher-dimensional spaces for incremental refinement while maintaining computational efficiency through parameter-matched designs. Implementing Hourglass MLPs requires an initial projection to lift input signals to expanded dimensions. We propose that this projection can remain fixed at random initialization throughout training, enabling efficient training and inference implementations. We evaluate both architectures on generative tasks over popular image datasets, characterizing performance-parameter Pareto frontiers through systematic architectural search. Results show that Hourglass architectures consistently achieve superior Pareto frontiers compared to conventional designs. As parameter budgets increase, optimal Hourglass configurations favor deeper networks with wider skip connections and narrower bottlenecks-a scaling pattern distinct from conventional MLPs. Our findings suggest reconsidering skip connection placement in modern architectures, with potential applications extending to Transformers and other residual networks.

MediaTek-Research MediaTek Research
·
Oct 2, 2025 2

Forecasting Downstream Performance of LLMs With Proxy Metrics

Progress in language model development is often driven by comparative decisions: which architecture to adopt, which pretraining corpus to use, or which training recipe to apply. Making these decisions well requires reliable performance forecasts, yet the two commonly used signals are fundamentally limited. Cross-entropy loss is poorly aligned with downstream capabilities, and direct downstream evaluation is expensive, sparse, and often uninformative at early training stages. Instead, we propose to construct proxy metrics by aggregating token-level statistics, such as entropy, top-k accuracy, and expert token rank, from a candidate model's next token distribution over expert-written solutions. Across three settings, our proxies consistently outperform loss- and compute-based baselines: 1) For cross-family model selection, they rank a heterogeneous population of reasoning models with mean Spearman Rho = 0.81 (vs. Rho = 0.36 for cross-entropy loss); 2) For pretraining data selection, they reliably rank 25 candidate corpora for a target model at roughly 10{,}000times less compute than direct evaluation, pushing the Pareto frontier beyond existing methods; and 3) for training-time forecasting, they extrapolate downstream accuracy across an 18times compute horizon with roughly half the error of existing alternatives. Together, these results suggest that expert trajectories are a broadly useful source of signal for assessing model capabilities, enabling reliable performance forecasting throughout the model development life cycle.

Mamba-3: Improved Sequence Modeling using State Space Principles

Scaling inference-time compute has emerged as an important driver of LLM performance, making inference efficiency a central focus of model design alongside model quality. While the current Transformer-based models deliver strong model quality, their quadratic compute and linear memory make inference expensive. This has spurred the development of sub-quadratic models with reduced linear compute and constant memory requirements. However, many recent linear models trade off model quality and capability for algorithmic efficiency, failing on tasks such as state tracking. Moreover, their theoretically linear inference remains hardware-inefficient in practice. Guided by an inference-first perspective, we introduce three core methodological improvements inspired by the state space model (SSM) viewpoint of linear models. We combine: (1) a more expressive recurrence derived from SSM discretization, (2) a complex-valued state update rule that enables richer state tracking, and (3) a multi-input, multi-output (MIMO) formulation for better model performance without increasing decode latency. Together with architectural refinements, our Mamba-3 model achieves significant gains across retrieval, state-tracking, and downstream language modeling tasks. At the 1.5B scale, Mamba-3 improves average downstream accuracy by 0.6 percentage points compared to the next best model (Gated DeltaNet), with Mamba-3's MIMO variant further improving accuracy by another 1.2 points for a total 1.8 point gain. Across state-size experiments, Mamba-3 achieves comparable perplexity to Mamba-2 despite using half of its predecessor's state size. Our evaluations demonstrate Mamba-3's ability to advance the performance-efficiency Pareto frontier.

  • 8 authors
·
Mar 16 1

ReMax: A Simple, Effective, and Efficient Reinforcement Learning Method for Aligning Large Language Models

Alignment is crucial for training large language models. The predominant strategy is Reinforcement Learning from Human Feedback (RLHF), with Proximal Policy Optimization (PPO) as the de-facto algorithm. Yet, PPO is known to struggle with computational inefficiency, a challenge that this paper aims to address. We identify three important properties of RLHF tasks: fast simulation, deterministic transitions, and trajectory-level rewards, which are not leveraged in PPO. Based on these properties, we develop ReMax, a new algorithm tailored for RLHF. The design of ReMax builds on the celebrated algorithm REINFORCE but is enhanced with a new variance-reduction technique. ReMax offers threefold advantages over PPO: first, it is simple to implement with just 6 lines of code. It further eliminates more than 4 hyper-parameters in PPO, which are laborious to tune. Second, ReMax reduces memory usage by about 50%. To illustrate, PPO runs out of memory when fine-tuning a Llama2-7B model on A100-80GB GPUs, whereas ReMax can support the training. Even though memory-efficient techniques (e.g., ZeRO and offload) are employed for PPO to afford training, ReMax can utilize a larger batch size to increase throughput. Third, in terms of wall-clock time, PPO is about twice as slow as ReMax per iteration. Importantly, these improvements do not sacrifice task performance. We hypothesize that these advantages can be maintained in larger-scale models.

  • 7 authors
·
Oct 16, 2023

Modeling of learning curves with applications to pos tagging

An algorithm to estimate the evolution of learning curves on the whole of a training data base, based on the results obtained from a portion and using a functional strategy, is introduced. We approximate iteratively the sought value at the desired time, independently of the learning technique used and once a point in the process, called prediction level, has been passed. The proposal proves to be formally correct with respect to our working hypotheses and includes a reliable proximity condition. This allows the user to fix a convergence threshold with respect to the accuracy finally achievable, which extends the concept of stopping criterion and seems to be effective even in the presence of distorting observations. Our aim is to evaluate the training effort, supporting decision making in order to reduce the need for both human and computational resources during the learning process. The proposal is of interest in at least three operational procedures. The first is the anticipation of accuracy gain, with the purpose of measuring how much work is needed to achieve a certain degree of performance. The second relates the comparison of efficiency between systems at training time, with the objective of completing this task only for the one that best suits our requirements. The prediction of accuracy is also a valuable item of information for customizing systems, since we can estimate in advance the impact of settings on both the performance and the development costs. Using the generation of part-of-speech taggers as an example application, the experimental results are consistent with our expectations.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 4, 2024

UL2: Unifying Language Learning Paradigms

Existing pre-trained models are generally geared towards a particular class of problems. To date, there seems to be still no consensus on what the right architecture and pre-training setup should be. This paper presents a unified framework for pre-training models that are universally effective across datasets and setups. We begin by disentangling architectural archetypes with pre-training objectives -- two concepts that are commonly conflated. Next, we present a generalized & unified perspective for self-supervision in NLP and show how different pre-training objectives can be cast as one another and how interpolating between different objectives can be effective. We then propose Mixture-of-Denoisers (MoD), a pre-training objective that combines diverse pre-training paradigms together. We furthermore introduce a notion of mode switching, wherein downstream fine-tuning is associated with specific pre-training schemes. We conduct extensive ablative experiments to compare multiple pre-training objectives and find that our method pushes the Pareto-frontier by outperforming T5 & GPT-like models across multiple diverse setups. By scaling our model up to 20B parameters, we achieve SOTA performance on 50 well-established supervised finetuning based NLP tasks. Our model also achieve strong results at in-context learning, outperforming 175B GPT-3 on zero-shot SuperGLUE and tripling the performance of T5-XXL on one-shot summarization. On 0-shot MMLU, UL2 20B outperforms T0 and T5 models. UL2 20B also works well with chain-of-thought prompting and reasoning, making it an appealing choice for research into reasoning at a small to medium scale of 20B parameters. Finally, we apply FLAN instruction tuning to the UL2 20B model, achieving MMLU and Big-Bench scores competitive to FLAN-PaLM 62B. We release Flax-based T5X checkpoints for the UL2 20B & Flan-UL2 20B.

  • 14 authors
·
May 10, 2022

Think Deep, Think Fast: Investigating Efficiency of Verifier-free Inference-time-scaling Methods

There is intense interest in investigating how inference time compute (ITC) (e.g. repeated sampling, refinements, etc) can improve large language model (LLM) capabilities. At the same time, recent breakthroughs in reasoning models, such as Deepseek-R1, unlock the opportunity for reinforcement learning to improve LLM reasoning skills. An in-depth understanding of how ITC interacts with reasoning across different models could provide important guidance on how to further advance the LLM frontier. This work conducts a comprehensive analysis of inference-time scaling methods for both reasoning and non-reasoning models on challenging reasoning tasks. Specifically, we focus our research on verifier-free inference time-scaling methods due to its generalizability without needing a reward model. We construct the Pareto frontier of quality and efficiency. We find that non-reasoning models, even with an extremely high inference budget, still fall substantially behind reasoning models. For reasoning models, majority voting proves to be a robust inference strategy, generally competitive or outperforming other more sophisticated ITC methods like best-of-N and sequential revisions, while the additional inference compute offers minimal improvements. We further perform in-depth analyses of the association of key response features (length and linguistic markers) with response quality, with which we can improve the existing ITC methods. We find that correct responses from reasoning models are typically shorter and have fewer hedging and thinking markers (but more discourse markers) than the incorrect responses.

  • 10 authors
·
Apr 18, 2025

MoESD: Unveil Speculative Decoding's Potential for Accelerating Sparse MoE

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success across many applications, with Mixture of Experts (MoE) models demonstrating great potential. Compared to traditional dense models, MoEs achieve better performance with less computation. Speculative decoding (SD) is a widely used technique to accelerate LLM inference without accuracy loss, but it has been considered efficient only for dense models. In this work, we first demonstrate that, under medium batch sizes, MoE surprisingly benefits more from SD than dense models. Furthermore, as MoE becomes sparser -- the prevailing trend in MoE designs -- the batch size range where SD acceleration is expected to be effective becomes broader. To quantitatively understand tradeoffs involved in SD, we develop a reliable modeling based on theoretical analyses. While current SD research primarily focuses on improving acceptance rates of algorithms, changes in workload and model architecture can still lead to degraded SD acceleration even with high acceptance rates. To address this limitation, we introduce a new metric 'target efficiency' that characterizes these effects, thus helping researchers identify system bottlenecks and understand SD acceleration more comprehensively. For scenarios like private serving, this work unveils a new perspective to speed up MoE inference, where existing solutions struggle. Experiments on different GPUs show up to 2.29x speedup for Qwen2-57B-A14B at medium batch sizes and validate our theoretical predictions.

  • 8 authors
·
Feb 15

ODAR: Principled Adaptive Routing for LLM Reasoning via Active Inference

The paradigm of large language model (LLM) reasoning is shifting from parameter scaling to test-time compute scaling, yet many existing approaches still rely on uniform brute-force sampling (for example, fixed best-of-N or self-consistency) that is costly, hard to attribute, and can trigger overthinking with diminishing returns. We propose ODAR-Expert, an adaptive routing framework that optimizes the accuracy-efficiency trade-off via principled resource allocation. ODAR uses a difficulty estimator grounded in amortized active inference to dynamically route queries between a heuristic Fast Agent and a deliberative Slow Agent. We further introduce a free-energy-principled, risk-sensitive fusion mechanism that selects answers by minimizing a variational free energy objective, balancing log-likelihood with epistemic uncertainty (varentropy) as a principled alternative to ad hoc voting over heterogeneous candidates. Extensive evaluation across 23 benchmarks shows strong and consistent gains, including 98.2% accuracy on MATH and 54.8% on Humanity's Last Exam (HLE), while improving the compute-accuracy frontier under compute-matched settings. We also validate reproducibility on a fully open-source stack (Llama 4 + DeepSeek), where ODAR surpasses homogeneous sampling strategies while reducing computational costs by 82%. Overall, our results suggest that thinking-optimal scaling requires adaptive resource allocation with free-energy-based decision-making rather than simply increasing test-time compute.

  • 9 authors
·
Feb 26

Look Before you Leap: Estimating LLM Benchmark Scores from Descriptions

Progress in large language models is constrained by an evaluation bottleneck: build a benchmark, evaluate models and settings, then iterate. We therefore ask a simple question: can we forecast outcomes before running any experiments? We study text-only performance forecasting: estimating a model's score from a redacted task description and intended configuration, with no access to dataset instances. To support systematic study, we curate PRECOG, a corpus of redacted description-performance pairs spanning diverse tasks, domains, and metrics. Experiments show the task is challenging but feasible: models equipped with a retrieval module that excludes source papers achieve moderate prediction performance with well-calibrated uncertainty, reaching mean absolute error as low as 8.7 on the Accuracy subset at high-confidence thresholds. Our analysis indicates that stronger reasoning models engage in diverse, iterative querying, whereas current open-source models lag and often skip retrieval or gather evidence with limited diversity. We further test a zero-leakage setting, forecasting on newly released datasets or experiments before their papers are indexed, where GPT-5 with built-in web search still attains nontrivial prediction accuracy. Overall, our corpus and analyses offer an initial step toward open-ended anticipatory evaluation, supporting difficulty estimation and smarter experiment prioritization.

  • 4 authors
·
Sep 24, 2025