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Jul 15

A Taxonomy of Event-Linked Perpetual Futures: Variant Designs Beyond the Single-Market Binary Case

Paper 1 of this research programme develops a resolution-aware risk-design framework for the simplest event-linked perpetual: a contract whose underlying tracks a single binary prediction-market probability through resolution. The instrument class is broader. Variants span conditional probabilities P(A|B), spreads p^A - p^B, weighted baskets sum w_i p^(i), derivatives on variance or entropy of the probability process, contracts on liquidity itself, perpetual-on-expiring-event roll structures, and funding-only derivatives with no settlement. Each variant inherits some framework components from the single-market binary case and requires its own design adaptations. This paper develops a formal taxonomy of seven pure-form canonical variants beyond the probability-index perpetual of Paper 1, organised along four orthogonal design axes: underlying geometry, temporal structure, settlement structure, and venue composition. The list is not exhaustive; combinations are not treated separately. For each variant we provide a precise payoff definition; an inheritance map identifying which Paper 1 components carry over, are modified, or fail; variant-specific design constraints; microstructure properties; empirical evaluability on the PMXT v2 archive; and limitations. Notable findings: the conditional variant admits a candidate non-portability proposition (denominator instability as the conditioning event becomes improbable); the spread variant requires a three-channel decomposition of resolution risk; the volatility/entropy variant avoids random binary terminal-collapse but introduces estimator-convention and entropy-decay issues; the basket variant requires multi-period jump-aware margin whose aggregation is correlation-dependent. The paper is theoretical primarily; it specifies how demonstrative time series can be constructed and provides evaluability criteria to guide future work.

  • 1 authors
·
May 10

ByteGen: A Tokenizer-Free Generative Model for Orderbook Events in Byte Space

Generative modeling of high-frequency limit order book (LOB) dynamics is a critical yet unsolved challenge in quantitative finance, essential for robust market simulation and strategy backtesting. Existing approaches are often constrained by simplifying stochastic assumptions or, in the case of modern deep learning models like Transformers, rely on tokenization schemes that affect the high-precision, numerical nature of financial data through discretization and binning. To address these limitations, we introduce ByteGen, a novel generative model that operates directly on the raw byte streams of LOB events. Our approach treats the problem as an autoregressive next-byte prediction task, for which we design a compact and efficient 32-byte packed binary format to represent market messages without information loss. The core novelty of our work is the complete elimination of feature engineering and tokenization, enabling the model to learn market dynamics from its most fundamental representation. We achieve this by adapting the H-Net architecture, a hybrid Mamba-Transformer model that uses a dynamic chunking mechanism to discover the inherent structure of market messages without predefined rules. Our primary contributions are: 1) the first end-to-end, byte-level framework for LOB modeling; 2) an efficient packed data representation; and 3) a comprehensive evaluation on high-frequency data. Trained on over 34 million events from CME Bitcoin futures, ByteGen successfully reproduces key stylized facts of financial markets, generating realistic price distributions, heavy-tailed returns, and bursty event timing. Our findings demonstrate that learning directly from byte space is a promising and highly flexible paradigm for modeling complex financial systems, achieving competitive performance on standard market quality metrics without the biases of tokenization.

  • 2 authors
·
Aug 4, 2025

Existence, Stability and Scalability of Orthogonal Convolutional Neural Networks

Imposing orthogonality on the layers of neural networks is known to facilitate the learning by limiting the exploding/vanishing of the gradient; decorrelate the features; improve the robustness. This paper studies the theoretical properties of orthogonal convolutional layers.We establish necessary and sufficient conditions on the layer architecture guaranteeing the existence of an orthogonal convolutional transform. The conditions prove that orthogonal convolutional transforms exist for almost all architectures used in practice for 'circular' padding.We also exhibit limitations with 'valid' boundary conditions and 'same' boundary conditions with zero-padding.Recently, a regularization term imposing the orthogonality of convolutional layers has been proposed, and impressive empirical results have been obtained in different applications (Wang et al. 2020).The second motivation of the present paper is to specify the theory behind this.We make the link between this regularization term and orthogonality measures. In doing so, we show that this regularization strategy is stable with respect to numerical and optimization errors and that, in the presence of small errors and when the size of the signal/image is large, the convolutional layers remain close to isometric.The theoretical results are confirmed with experiments and the landscape of the regularization term is studied. Experiments on real data sets show that when orthogonality is used to enforce robustness, the parameter multiplying the regularization termcan be used to tune a tradeoff between accuracy and orthogonality, for the benefit of both accuracy and robustness.Altogether, the study guarantees that the regularization proposed in Wang et al. (2020) is an efficient, flexible and stable numerical strategy to learn orthogonal convolutional layers.

  • 3 authors
·
Aug 12, 2021

TRADES: Generating Realistic Market Simulations with Diffusion Models

Financial markets are complex systems characterized by high statistical noise, nonlinearity, and constant evolution. Thus, modeling them is extremely hard. We address the task of generating realistic and responsive Limit Order Book (LOB) market simulations, which are fundamental for calibrating and testing trading strategies, performing market impact experiments, and generating synthetic market data. Previous works lack realism, usefulness, and responsiveness of the generated simulations. To bridge this gap, we propose a novel TRAnsformer-based Denoising Diffusion Probabilistic Engine for LOB Simulations (TRADES). TRADES generates realistic order flows conditioned on the state of the market, leveraging a transformer-based architecture that captures the temporal and spatial characteristics of high-frequency market data. There is a notable absence of quantitative metrics for evaluating generative market simulation models in the literature. To tackle this problem, we adapt the predictive score, a metric measured as an MAE, by training a stock price predictive model on synthetic data and testing it on real data. We compare TRADES with previous works on two stocks, reporting an x3.27 and x3.47 improvement over SoTA according to the predictive score, demonstrating that we generate useful synthetic market data for financial downstream tasks. We assess TRADES's market simulation realism and responsiveness, showing that it effectively learns the conditional data distribution and successfully reacts to an experimental agent, giving sprout to possible calibrations and evaluations of trading strategies and market impact experiments. We developed DeepMarket, the first open-source Python framework for market simulation with deep learning. Our repository includes a synthetic LOB dataset composed of TRADES's generates simulations. We release the code at github.com/LeonardoBerti00/DeepMarket.

  • 3 authors
·
Jan 31, 2025

Understanding and Enforcing Weight Disentanglement in Task Arithmetic

Task arithmetic provides an efficient, training-free way to edit pre-trained models, yet lacks a fundamental theoretical explanation for its success. The existing concept of ``weight disentanglement" describes the ideal outcome of non-interfering task composition but does not reveal its underlying cause. Crucially, what intrinsic properties of the pre-trained model (θ_0) or the task vectors (τ_t) enable this disentanglement remains underexplored. In this paper, we introduce Task-Feature Specialization (TFS), a model's ability to allocate distinct internal features to different tasks, as the fundamental principle. We first prove that TFS is a sufficient condition for weight disentanglement. More importantly, we find that TFS also gives rise to an observable geometric consequence: weight vector orthogonality. This positions TFS as the common cause for both the desired functional outcome (disentanglement) and a measurable geometric property (orthogonality). This relationship provides the key insight for our method: since the abstract TFS property is intractable to enforce directly, we can instead promote weight disentanglement by shaping its concrete geometric consequence, orthogonality. Therefore, we propose OrthoReg, a simple and effective regularization method that actively enforces an internal orthogonal structure on weight updates (ΔW) that constitute τ_t during fine-tuning. And we theoretically prove that OrthoReg promotes disentanglement. Extensive experiments demonstrate that OrthoReg consistently and significantly enhances the performance of various task arithmetic methods. Code is available at https://github.com/RL-MIND/OrthoReg{https://github.com/RL-MIND/OrthoReg}.

RL-MIND RL-MIND Group
·
Apr 18 3

Orthogonal Model Merging

Merging finetuned Large Language Models (LLMs) has become increasingly important for integrating diverse capabilities into a single unified model. However, prevailing model merging methods rely on linear arithmetic in Euclidean space, which often destroys the intrinsic geometric properties of pretrained weights, such as hyperspherical energy. To address this, we propose Orthogonal Model Merging (OrthoMerge), a method that performs merging operations on the Riemannian manifold formed by the orthogonal group to preserve the geometric structure of the model's weights. By mapping task-specific orthogonal matrices learned by Orthogonal Finetuning (OFT) to the Lie algebra, OrthoMerge enables a principled yet efficient integration that takes into account both the direction and intensity of adaptations. In addition to directly leveraging orthogonal matrices obtained by OFT, we further extend this approach to general models finetuned with non-OFT methods (i.e., low-rank finetuning, full finetuning) via an Orthogonal-Residual Decoupling strategy. This technique extracts the orthogonal components of expert models by solving the orthogonal Procrustes problem, which are then merged on the manifold of the orthogonal group, while the remaining linear residuals are processed through standard additive merging. Extensive empirical results demonstrate the effectiveness of OrthoMerge in mitigating catastrophic forgetting and maintaining model performance across diverse tasks.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 4

AutoDiffusion: Training-Free Optimization of Time Steps and Architectures for Automated Diffusion Model Acceleration

Diffusion models are emerging expressive generative models, in which a large number of time steps (inference steps) are required for a single image generation. To accelerate such tedious process, reducing steps uniformly is considered as an undisputed principle of diffusion models. We consider that such a uniform assumption is not the optimal solution in practice; i.e., we can find different optimal time steps for different models. Therefore, we propose to search the optimal time steps sequence and compressed model architecture in a unified framework to achieve effective image generation for diffusion models without any further training. Specifically, we first design a unified search space that consists of all possible time steps and various architectures. Then, a two stage evolutionary algorithm is introduced to find the optimal solution in the designed search space. To further accelerate the search process, we employ FID score between generated and real samples to estimate the performance of the sampled examples. As a result, the proposed method is (i).training-free, obtaining the optimal time steps and model architecture without any training process; (ii). orthogonal to most advanced diffusion samplers and can be integrated to gain better sample quality. (iii). generalized, where the searched time steps and architectures can be directly applied on different diffusion models with the same guidance scale. Experimental results show that our method achieves excellent performance by using only a few time steps, e.g. 17.86 FID score on ImageNet 64 times 64 with only four steps, compared to 138.66 with DDIM. The code is available at https://github.com/lilijiangg/AutoDiffusion.

  • 10 authors
·
Sep 19, 2023

Amplitude Encoding of Slater-Type Orbitals via Matrix Product States: Efficient State Preparation and Integral Evaluation on Quantum Hardware

Slater-type orbitals (STOs) provide the physically correct description of atomic wavefunctions but have been largely replaced by Gaussian-type orbitals in computational chemistry due to the lack of closed-form multi-center integrals. We present a systematic study of amplitude encoding of STOs on quantum computers using matrix product states (MPS). For one-dimensional orbital functions of the form p_d(x) e^{-ζx}, we derive analytical MPS constructions with constant bond dimension χ= d + 1, requiring O(n) classical and quantum resources for n-qubit registers with no grid sampling. We demonstrate a complete one-electron integral pipeline -- overlap, kinetic energy, and nuclear attraction -- in one dimension, validating the overlap and kinetic energy on IBM Heron processors at 5~qubits with 0.67\% hardware-induced error using Zero-Noise Extrapolation. In three dimensions, we compute multi-center overlap integrals between 1s and 2s orbitals in Cartesian coordinates with 0.02\% discretization error at 18~qubits. A systematic entanglement analysis reveals that the MPS bond dimension of three-dimensional STOs in Cartesian coordinates saturates with increasing grid resolution -- reaching sim138 for the hydrogen 1s orbital at 12~qubits per coordinate -- establishing bounded encoding complexity rather than the exponential scaling initially expected. The SVD truncation threshold provides a practical resource parameter, reducing the bond dimension to 39 at threshold 10^{-6} with negligible accuracy loss. These results map the entanglement landscape for amplitude encoding of atomic orbitals and establish MPS-based state preparation as a viable path toward exact STO basis sets on quantum computers.

  • 1 authors
·
Apr 28

The Deep Arbitrary Polynomial Chaos Neural Network or how Deep Artificial Neural Networks could benefit from Data-Driven Homogeneous Chaos Theory

Artificial Intelligence and Machine learning have been widely used in various fields of mathematical computing, physical modeling, computational science, communication science, and stochastic analysis. Approaches based on Deep Artificial Neural Networks (DANN) are very popular in our days. Depending on the learning task, the exact form of DANNs is determined via their multi-layer architecture, activation functions and the so-called loss function. However, for a majority of deep learning approaches based on DANNs, the kernel structure of neural signal processing remains the same, where the node response is encoded as a linear superposition of neural activity, while the non-linearity is triggered by the activation functions. In the current paper, we suggest to analyze the neural signal processing in DANNs from the point of view of homogeneous chaos theory as known from polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). From the PCE perspective, the (linear) response on each node of a DANN could be seen as a 1^{st} degree multi-variate polynomial of single neurons from the previous layer, i.e. linear weighted sum of monomials. From this point of view, the conventional DANN structure relies implicitly (but erroneously) on a Gaussian distribution of neural signals. Additionally, this view revels that by design DANNs do not necessarily fulfill any orthogonality or orthonormality condition for a majority of data-driven applications. Therefore, the prevailing handling of neural signals in DANNs could lead to redundant representation as any neural signal could contain some partial information from other neural signals. To tackle that challenge, we suggest to employ the data-driven generalization of PCE theory known as arbitrary polynomial chaos (aPC) to construct a corresponding multi-variate orthonormal representations on each node of a DANN to obtain Deep arbitrary polynomial chaos neural networks.

  • 6 authors
·
Jun 26, 2023

On gauge freedom, conservativity and intrinsic dimensionality estimation in diffusion models

Diffusion models are generative models that have recently demonstrated impressive performances in terms of sampling quality and density estimation in high dimensions. They rely on a forward continuous diffusion process and a backward continuous denoising process, which can be described by a time-dependent vector field and is used as a generative model. In the original formulation of the diffusion model, this vector field is assumed to be the score function (i.e. it is the gradient of the log-probability at a given time in the diffusion process). Curiously, on the practical side, most studies on diffusion models implement this vector field as a neural network function and do not constrain it be the gradient of some energy function (that is, most studies do not constrain the vector field to be conservative). Even though some studies investigated empirically whether such a constraint will lead to a performance gain, they lead to contradicting results and failed to provide analytical results. Here, we provide three analytical results regarding the extent of the modeling freedom of this vector field. {Firstly, we propose a novel decomposition of vector fields into a conservative component and an orthogonal component which satisfies a given (gauge) freedom. Secondly, from this orthogonal decomposition, we show that exact density estimation and exact sampling is achieved when the conservative component is exactly equals to the true score and therefore conservativity is neither necessary nor sufficient to obtain exact density estimation and exact sampling. Finally, we show that when it comes to inferring local information of the data manifold, constraining the vector field to be conservative is desirable.

  • 2 authors
·
Feb 6, 2024

What Shape is the Inflationary Bispectrum?

Non-linear interactions during inflation generate non-Gaussianities in the distribution of primordial curvature. In many theories, the physics is scale-invariant, such that the induced three-point function depends solely on a dimensionless shape function S(x,y)sim k^6B_ζ(kx,ky,k). To confront such models with observations, one typically builds specialized estimators for each shape, then applies them to cosmic microwave background datasets at significant computational expense. In this Letter, we take a different approach, directly reconstructing S(x,y) from observations using an efficient logarithmically-binned estimator in primordial-space (motivated by the modal program). Applying this to temperature and polarization maps from Planck, we obtain high-resolution shape measurements across the full (x,y)-plane, including squeezed limits. Our approach is close-to-optimal, highly interpretable, and preserves the information content on (optimally-analyzed) standard templates within approx 10%; moreover, we can use it to assess the scale-dependence of our constraints, finding that Planck is sensitive to approx 6 e-folds of non-Gaussian evolution with a peak sensitivity around 0.1h,Mpc^{-1}. Since we work directly in shape-space, data and theory can be compared in milliseconds. As an example, we perform a search for massive particle exchange using a suite of over 20,000 theoretical templates computed with exact bootstrap methods (for the first time) across a wide range of masses, spins, and sound-speeds; the spin-two analysis yields a maximum significance of 2.6σ. Our approach can be used to probe a wide range of scale-invariant models in orders-of-magnitude less time than with direct estimators, allowing the inflationary paradigm to be explored in new ways.

  • 1 authors
·
Mar 25

TLOB: A Novel Transformer Model with Dual Attention for Stock Price Trend Prediction with Limit Order Book Data

Stock Price Trend Prediction (SPTP) based on Limit Order Book (LOB) data is a fundamental challenge in financial markets. Despite advances in deep learning, existing models fail to generalize across different market conditions and struggle to reliably predict short-term trends. Surprisingly, by adapting a simple MLP-based architecture to LOB, we show that we surpass SoTA performance; thus, challenging the necessity of complex architectures. Unlike past work that shows robustness issues, we propose TLOB, a transformer-based model that uses a dual attention mechanism to capture spatial and temporal dependencies in LOB data. This allows it to adaptively focus on the market microstructure, making it particularly effective for longer-horizon predictions and volatile market conditions. We also introduce a new labeling method that improves on previous ones, removing the horizon bias. We evaluate TLOB's effectiveness using the established FI-2010 benchmark, which exceeds the state-of-the-art by an average of 3.7 F1-score(\%). Additionally, TLOB shows improvements on Tesla and Intel with a 1.3 and 7.7 increase in F1-score(\%), respectively. Additionally, we empirically show how stock price predictability has declined over time (-6.68 absolute points in F1-score(\%)), highlighting the growing market efficiencies. Predictability must be considered in relation to transaction costs, so we experimented with defining trends using an average spread, reflecting the primary transaction cost. The resulting performance deterioration underscores the complexity of translating trend classification into profitable trading strategies. We argue that our work provides new insights into the evolving landscape of stock price trend prediction and sets a strong foundation for future advancements in financial AI. We release the code at https://github.com/LeonardoBerti00/TLOB.

  • 2 authors
·
Feb 12, 2025

A Machine-Checked Itô Calculus for Brownian Motion

We develop the Itô calculus of Brownian motion, machine-checked in Lean~4 over Mathlib and the BrownianMotion package. On a bounded interval [0,T] the Itô integral is built as a Hilbert-space isometry, from a predictable-rectangle π-system through the density of simple adapted processes. Realized as a process, it is a continuous L^2 martingale. One structural identity drives this: the integral at time t is the conditional-expectation projection of its terminal value onto F_t, and from it adaptedness, the martingale property, the contraction bound, and both the terminal and time-indexed Itô isometries follow as corollaries. On this integral we prove Itô's formula for C^3 functions with bounded derivatives, including the time-dependent form df = f_x,dB + (f_t + tfrac12 f_{xx}),dt, by a discrete-to-continuous argument through weighted quadratic variation with explicit L^2 remainder bounds. We then pass from the L^2 theory to the pathwise. The integral process has an almost-surely continuous modification, and its everywhere-continuous representative is a local martingale for the null-augmented Brownian filtration; gluing the bounded-horizon representatives along the half-line yields the Itô integral as a continuous local martingale on all of R_{ge 0}, the form it takes in the classical theory. To our knowledge these are the first machine-checked constructions of the Itô integral and of Itô's formula in any proof assistant, and the first to reach a pathwise-continuous local martingale. The boundary is explicit. The L^2 integral and Itô's formula are developed on [0,T] with bounded-derivative integrands; the unrestricted C^2 formula, integrators beyond brownian motion, and right-continuity of the filtration lie outside the development.

  • 1 authors
·
Jun 26

A Two-Parameter Weibull Framework for Diagnosing Transformer Weight Distributions

We apply the Weibull distribution -- a two-parameter family from extreme-value theory -- as a diagnostic framework for element-wise weight magnitude distributions in transformers. At initialization, i.i.d. Gaussian weights give |w| ~ HalfNormal, yielding k ~ 1.20 via middle-80% probability-plot fit (the protocol used throughout this work). This anchor makes k a principled, architecture-independent measuring stick for training dynamics; fitting each weight matrix independently at every layer at every checkpoint enables per-component, per-layer, and per-step diagnostics that aggregate statistics cannot resolve. Applying this framework to 12 model entries spanning 7 architectural families (Pythia, OLMo-1/2, LLaMA-3, Mistral, Qwen2.5/3) reveals three findings. First, FFN modules and the attention output projection W_o -- the Transmission Class -- fall in a narrow k band: median terminal k in [1.186, 1.204] across 12 entries (cross-family CV = 0.51%), shared across SwiGLU/GeLU activations, Pre-LN/QK-Norm placements, and 70M-14B sizes. Second, the attention input projections W_q, W_k -- the Selection Class -- depart from the Weibull family, with severity shaped by storage: separately-stored Q/K (OLMo-1, OLMo-2) yields k in [0.76, 0.99] (deep); GQA models yield k in [1.10, 1.16] (mild); Pythia's merged W_qkv occupies a transitional zone tracking training budget T/tau monotonically. Third, lambda grows substantially during training and scales with sqrt(eta/lambda_wd) within the Pythia family (Pearson r = 0.94, three Transmission kinds), directionally consistent with Fan et al. (2025). The two parameters carry independent information: k labels the functional class, lambda labels training progress. We release npm-weibull-py v0.4 (Python library) and DATABASE_v9_1 at https://github.com/tiexinding/NPM-Weibull-public .

  • 1 authors
·
May 16

DRIFT-Net: A Spectral--Coupled Neural Operator for PDEs Learning

Learning PDE dynamics with neural solvers can significantly improve wall-clock efficiency and accuracy compared with classical numerical solvers. In recent years, foundation models for PDEs have largely adopted multi-scale windowed self-attention, with the scOT backbone in Poseidon serving as a representative example. However, because of their locality, truly globally consistent spectral coupling can only be propagated gradually through deep stacking and window shifting. This weakens global coupling and leads to error accumulation and drift during closed-loop rollouts. To address this, we propose DRIFT-Net. It employs a dual-branch design comprising a spectral branch and an image branch. The spectral branch is responsible for capturing global, large-scale low-frequency information, whereas the image branch focuses on local details and nonstationary structures. Specifically, we first perform controlled, lightweight mixing within the low-frequency range. Then we fuse the spectral and image paths at each layer via bandwise weighting, which avoids the width inflation and training instability caused by naive concatenation. The fused result is transformed back into the spatial domain and added to the image branch, thereby preserving both global structure and high-frequency details across scales. Compared with strong attention-based baselines, DRIFT-Net achieves lower error and higher throughput with fewer parameters under identical training settings and budget. On Navier--Stokes benchmarks, the relative L_{1} error is reduced by 7\%--54\%, the parameter count decreases by about 15\%, and the throughput remains higher than scOT. Ablation studies and theoretical analyses further demonstrate the stability and effectiveness of this design. The code is available at https://github.com/cruiseresearchgroup/DRIFT-Net.

Stockformer: A Price-Volume Factor Stock Selection Model Based on Wavelet Transform and Multi-Task Self-Attention Networks

As the Chinese stock market continues to evolve and its market structure grows increasingly complex, traditional quantitative trading methods are facing escalating challenges. Particularly, due to policy uncertainty and the frequent market fluctuations triggered by sudden economic events, existing models often struggle to accurately predict market dynamics. To address these challenges, this paper introduces Stockformer, a price-volume factor stock selection model that integrates wavelet transformation and a multitask self-attention network, aimed at enhancing responsiveness and predictive accuracy regarding market instabilities. Through discrete wavelet transform, Stockformer decomposes stock returns into high and low frequencies, meticulously capturing long-term market trends and short-term fluctuations, including abrupt events. Moreover, the model incorporates a Dual-Frequency Spatiotemporal Encoder and graph embedding techniques to effectively capture complex temporal and spatial relationships among stocks. Employing a multitask learning strategy, it simultaneously predicts stock returns and directional trends. Experimental results show that Stockformer outperforms existing advanced methods on multiple real stock market datasets. In strategy backtesting, Stockformer consistently demonstrates exceptional stability and reliability across market conditions-whether rising, falling, or fluctuating-particularly maintaining high performance during downturns or volatile periods, indicating a high adaptability to market fluctuations. To foster innovation and collaboration in the financial analysis sector, the Stockformer model's code has been open-sourced and is available on the GitHub repository: https://github.com/Eric991005/Multitask-Stockformer.

  • 4 authors
·
Nov 22, 2023

Unification of Signal Transform Theory

We unify the discrete Fourier transform (DFT), discrete cosine transform (DCT), Walsh-Hadamard, Haar wavelet, Karhunen-Loève transform, and several others along with their continuous counterparts (Fourier transform, Fourier series, spherical harmonics, fractional Fourier transform) under one representation-theoretic principle: each is the eigenbasis of every covariance invariant under a specific finite or compact group, with columns constructed from the irreducible matrix elements of the group via the Peter-Weyl theorem. The unification rests on the Algebraic Diversity (AD) framework, which identifies the matched group of a covariance as the foundational object of second-order signal processing. The data-dependent KLT emerges as the trivial-matched-group limit; classical transforms emerge as the cyclic, dihedral, elementary abelian, iterated wreath, and hybrid wreath cases. Composition rules cover direct, wreath, and semidirect products. The Reed-Muller and arithmetic transforms appear as related change-of-basis transforms on the matched group of Walsh-Hadamard. A polynomial-time algorithm for matched-group discovery, the DAD-CAD relaxation cast as a generalized eigenvalue problem in double-commutator form, closes the operational loop: the matched group of any empirical covariance is discovered without expert judgment, with noise-aware variants via the commutativity residual δ and algebraic coloring index α for finite-SNR settings. The fractional Fourier transform is treated as the metaplectic SO(2) case with Hermite-Gauss matched basis, and a structural principle relates matched group size inversely to transform resolution. Modern applications (massive-MIMO, graph neural networks, transformer attention, point cloud and 3D vision, brain connectivity, single-cell genomics, quantum informatics) are sketched with their matched groups.

  • 1 authors
·
May 11

Multi-fidelity Bayesian Optimization in Engineering Design

Resided at the intersection of multi-fidelity optimization (MFO) and Bayesian optimization (BO), MF BO has found a niche in solving expensive engineering design optimization problems, thanks to its advantages in incorporating physical and mathematical understandings of the problems, saving resources, addressing exploitation-exploration trade-off, considering uncertainty, and processing parallel computing. The increasing number of works dedicated to MF BO suggests the need for a comprehensive review of this advanced optimization technique. In this paper, we survey recent developments of two essential ingredients of MF BO: Gaussian process (GP) based MF surrogates and acquisition functions. We first categorize the existing MF modeling methods and MFO strategies to locate MF BO in a large family of surrogate-based optimization and MFO algorithms. We then exploit the common properties shared between the methods from each ingredient of MF BO to describe important GP-based MF surrogate models and review various acquisition functions. By doing so, we expect to provide a structured understanding of MF BO. Finally, we attempt to reveal important aspects that require further research for applications of MF BO in solving intricate yet important design optimization problems, including constrained optimization, high-dimensional optimization, optimization under uncertainty, and multi-objective optimization.

  • 2 authors
·
Nov 21, 2023

Cylindric plane partitions, Lambda determinants, Commutants in semicircular systems

This thesis is divided into three parts. The first part deals with cylindric plane partitions. The second with lambda-determinants and the third with commutators in semi-circular systems. For more detailed abstract please see inside. Cylindric plane partitions may be thought of as a natural generalization of reverse plane partitions. A generating series for the enumeration of cylindric plane partitions was recently given by Borodin. The first result of section one is a new bijective proof of Borodin's identity which makes use of Fomin's growth diagram framework for generalized RSK correspondences. The second result is a (q,t)-analog of Borodin's identity which extends previous work by Okada in the reverse plane partition case. The third result is an explicit combinatorial interpretation of the Macdonald weight occurring in the (q,t)-analog using the non-intersecting lattice path model for cylindric plane partitions. Alternating sign matrices were discovered by Robbins and Rumsey whilst studying λ-determinants. In the second part of this thesis we prove a multi-parameter generalization of the λ-determinant, generalizing a recent result by di Francesco. Like the original λ-determinant, our formula exhibits the Laurent phenomenon. Semicircular systems were first introduced by Voiculescu as a part of his study of von Neumann algebras. In the third part of this thesis we study certain commutator subalgebras of the semicircular system. We find a projection matrix with an interesting self-similar structure. Making use of our projection formula we given an alternative, elementary proof that the semicircular system is a factor.

  • 1 authors
·
Oct 25, 2021

Limits and Powers of Koopman Learning

Dynamical systems provide a comprehensive way to study complex and changing behaviors across various sciences. Many modern systems are too complicated to analyze directly or we do not have access to models, driving significant interest in learning methods. Koopman operators have emerged as a dominant approach because they allow the study of nonlinear dynamics using linear techniques by solving an infinite-dimensional spectral problem. However, current algorithms face challenges such as lack of convergence, hindering practical progress. This paper addresses a fundamental open question: When can we robustly learn the spectral properties of Koopman operators from trajectory data of dynamical systems, and when can we not? Understanding these boundaries is crucial for analysis, applications, and designing algorithms. We establish a foundational approach that combines computational analysis and ergodic theory, revealing the first fundamental barriers -- universal for any algorithm -- associated with system geometry and complexity, regardless of data quality and quantity. For instance, we demonstrate well-behaved smooth dynamical systems on tori where non-trivial eigenfunctions of the Koopman operator cannot be determined by any sequence of (even randomized) algorithms, even with unlimited training data. Additionally, we identify when learning is possible and introduce optimal algorithms with verification that overcome issues in standard methods. These results pave the way for a sharp classification theory of data-driven dynamical systems based on how many limits are needed to solve a problem. These limits characterize all previous methods, presenting a unified view. Our framework systematically determines when and how Koopman spectral properties can be learned.

  • 3 authors
·
Jul 8, 2024

Bootstrapping Symmetries in Quantum Many-Body Systems from the Cross Spectral Form Factor

Symmetries play a central role in quantum many-body physics, yet uncovering them systematically remains challenging. We introduce a bootstrap framework designed to reconstruct the representation theory of hidden finite group symmetries of quantum many-body lattice Hamiltonians, using only a known symmetry subgroup N and spectral correlations between its symmetry sectors. We introduce a novel variant of the spectral form factor, the cross spectral form factor (xSFF), which we compute via exact diagonalization to seed the bootstrap algorithm. By applying the constraints derived from these data alongside the algebraic conditions of the fusion rules, our bootstrap procedure sharply restricts the set of candidate groups G. Remarkably, without any prior assumptions regarding the full symmetry group G, our method can systematically recover its representation-theoretic data, including the number and dimensions of the irreducible representations, their branching rules with respect to N, the fusion algebra, and the full character table. This framework applies equally well to chaotic and integrable many-body systems and accommodates both unitary and anti-unitary symmetries. Through various examples, we demonstrate that the underlying group G can be uniquely identified. In particular, our bootstrap independently recovers the Z_4 symmetry at the self-dual point of the three-state quantum torus chain, detects signatures of projective representations in the effective Hamiltonian of the driven Bose-Hubbard model, and rediscovers the η-pairing SO(4) symmetry of the one-dimensional Fermi-Hubbard model. Our framework thus establishes a practical route to identify symmetries directly from dynamical spectral observables.

  • 4 authors
·
Mar 31

OAM-Induced Lattice Rotation Reveals a Fractional Optimum in Fault-Tolerant GKP Quantum Sensing

Photon loss and dephasing rapidly degrade the sensitivity of quantum sensors, yet systematic methods for designing error-correcting codes whose geometry is simultaneously adapted to the sensing task and the noise channel do not exist. Here we establish that orbital-angular-momentum (OAM) encoding and Gottesman-Kitaev-Preskill (GKP) lattice geometry are structurally coupled: an OAM mode of topological charge ell induces a phase-space rotation θ_ell=ellπ/ell_{max}, corresponding to a family of twisted GKP stabilizer lattices. Using an end-to-end differentiable Strawberry Fields--TensorFlow circuit, we jointly optimise ell, the lattice aspect ratio r, and the finite-energy envelope ε to maximise quantum Fisher information subject to P_{rm err}leq10^{-3}. The optimum occurs at the fractional charge ell=1.5 (θ=67.5^circ), implementable with a half-integer spiral phase plate, which reduces P_{rm err} by 23.9times relative to the square-lattice baseline while leaving F_Q unchanged to within 0.2%. This surpasses the best integer value (ell=2, 15.7times) and arises from an exact 180^circ periodicity of the P_{rm err}(θ) landscape, confirmed analytically and numerically. We derive a transcendental balance equation for the optimal angle θ^*(η,γ,r) and prove that it decreases with both γ and η. A Shannon-inspired metrological capacity C=F_Qcdot(-ln P_{rm err}), maximised at ell=1.5 with a 41% gain over the square lattice, quantifies the joint sensitivity--fault-tolerance resource. These results establish a geometric design principle for noise-adaptive quantum sensors and a fully open-source differentiable template extensible to other bosonic code families.

  • 2 authors
·
May 13

Universal features of price formation in financial markets: perspectives from Deep Learning

Using a large-scale Deep Learning approach applied to a high-frequency database containing billions of electronic market quotes and transactions for US equities, we uncover nonparametric evidence for the existence of a universal and stationary price formation mechanism relating the dynamics of supply and demand for a stock, as revealed through the order book, to subsequent variations in its market price. We assess the model by testing its out-of-sample predictions for the direction of price moves given the history of price and order flow, across a wide range of stocks and time periods. The universal price formation model is shown to exhibit a remarkably stable out-of-sample prediction accuracy across time, for a wide range of stocks from different sectors. Interestingly, these results also hold for stocks which are not part of the training sample, showing that the relations captured by the model are universal and not asset-specific. The universal model --- trained on data from all stocks --- outperforms, in terms of out-of-sample prediction accuracy, asset-specific linear and nonlinear models trained on time series of any given stock, showing that the universal nature of price formation weighs in favour of pooling together financial data from various stocks, rather than designing asset- or sector-specific models as commonly done. Standard data normalizations based on volatility, price level or average spread, or partitioning the training data into sectors or categories such as large/small tick stocks, do not improve training results. On the other hand, inclusion of price and order flow history over many past observations is shown to improve forecasting performance, showing evidence of path-dependence in price dynamics.

  • 2 authors
·
Mar 19, 2018

Causality and Renormalization in Finite-Time-Path Out-of-Equilibrium φ^3 QFT

Our aim is to contribute to quantum field theory (QFT) formalisms useful for descriptions of short time phenomena, dominant especially in heavy ion collisions. We formulate out-of-equilibrium QFT within the finite-time-path formalism (FTP) and renormalization theory (RT). The potential conflict of FTP and RT is investigated in g phi^3 QFT, by using the retarded/advanced (R/A) basis of Green functions and dimensional renormalization (DR). For example, vertices immediately after (in time) divergent self-energy loops do not conserve energy, as integrals diverge. We "repair" them, while keeping d<4, to obtain energy conservation at those vertices. Already in the S-matrix theory, the renormalized, finite part of Feynman self-energy Sigma_{F}(p_0) does not vanish when |p_0|rightarrowinfty and cannot be split to retarded and advanced parts. In the Glaser--Epstein approach, the causality is repaired in the composite object G_F(p_0)Sigma_{F}(p_0). In the FTP approach, after repairing the vertices, the corresponding composite objects are G_R(p_0)Sigma_{R}(p_0) and Sigma_{A}(p_0)G_A(p_0). In the limit drightarrow 4, one obtains causal QFT. The tadpole contribution splits into diverging and finite parts. The diverging, constant component is eliminated by the renormalization condition langle 0|phi|0rangle =0 of the S-matrix theory. The finite, oscillating energy-nonconserving tadpole contributions vanish in the limit trightarrow infty .

  • 2 authors
·
Dec 31, 2019

Non-Gaussianity in D3-brane inflation

We update predictions for observables in the "delicate" D3/anti-D3 inflationary model on the conifold. We use a full CMB likelihood calculation to assess goodness-of-fit, which is necessary because in this model the zeta power spectrum often cannot be modelled as a power-law over observable scales. For the first time we are able to provide accurate forecasts for the amplitude of three-point correlations. In a significant portion of its parameter space the model follows Maldacena's single-field prediction fNL ~ -(5/12)(ns-1) if nt << 1. Therefore |fNL| is usually small when the power spectrum satisfies observational constraints. In a small number of cases the bispectrum is instead dominated by effects from rapid switching between angular minima. The resulting amplitudes are larger, but mostly with unacceptable spectral behaviour. In the most extreme case we obtain |fNLeq| ~ 75 at kt/3 = 0.002/Mpc. It has been suggested that the quasi-single field inflation ("QSFI") mechanism could produce significant 3-point correlations in this model. We do observe rare shifts in amplitude between equilateral and squeezed configurations that could possibly be associated with QSFI effects, but more investigation is needed to establish the full bispectrum shape. There is evidence of "shape" running between equilateral and squeezed configurations that may be inherited from the scale dependence of the spectrum. We explore the dependence of observables on discrete choices such as the truncation point of the potential. Our analysis illustrates the advantages of a standard format for information exchange within the inflationary model-building and testing community.

  • 3 authors
·
Feb 9, 2022

Momentum Attention: The Physics of In-Context Learning and Spectral Forensics for Mechanistic Interpretability

The Mechanistic Interpretability (MI) program has mapped the Transformer as a precise computational graph. We extend this graph with a conservation law and time-varying AC dynamics, viewing it as a physical circuit. We introduce Momentum Attention, a symplectic augmentation embedding physical priors via the kinematic difference operator p_t = q_t - q_{t-1}, implementing the symplectic shear q_t = q_t + γp_t on queries and keys. We identify a fundamental Symplectic-Filter Duality: the physical shear is mathematically equivalent to a High-Pass Filter. This duality is our cornerstone contribution -- by injecting kinematic momentum, we sidestep the topological depth constraint (L geq 2) for induction head formation. While standard architectures require two layers for induction from static positions, our extension grants direct access to velocity, enabling Single-Layer Induction and Spectral Forensics via Bode Plots. We formalize an Orthogonality Theorem proving that DC (semantic) and AC (mechanistic) signals segregate into orthogonal frequency bands when Low-Pass RoPE interacts with High-Pass Momentum. Validated through 5,100+ controlled experiments (documented in Supplementary Appendices A--R and 27 Jupyter notebooks), our 125M Momentum model exceeds expectations on induction-heavy tasks while tracking a 350M baseline within sim2.9% validation loss. Dedicated associative recall experiments reveal a scaling law γ^* = 4.17 times N^{-0.74} establishing momentum-depth fungibility. We offer this framework as a complementary analytical toolkit connecting Generative AI, Hamiltonian Physics, and Signal Processing.

  • 1 authors
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Feb 3

FRWKV+: Periodic-Aware Adaptive Gating for Frequency-Space Linear Time Series Forecasting

Accurate and efficient long-term multivariate time series forecasting requires capturing recurring temporal structure while keeping inference cheap across many variables and horizons. Frequency-space models represent long-range and periodic variation compactly, but they typically process the real and imaginary spectral components as weakly coupled streams and treat periodic cues as ordinary input features, even when such cues are unreliable. This paper proposes FRWKV-Plus, a lightweight periodic-aware frequency-space forecasting model built on the efficient FRWKV backbone. FRWKV-Plus introduces a cross-branch spectral gate that reweights each spectral branch using a summary of its sibling branch, and a trust-gated residual correction that converts compact within-period context into a bounded, sign-flexible adjustment of these gates under a learned, data-dependent trust score. By construction, the correction is identity-preserving at initialization and strictly bounded, so periodic evidence can refine but never dominate or invert the base interaction. On seven standard benchmarks, FRWKV-Plus is consistently competitive with strong linear, frequency-domain, recurrent-style, and Transformer-based forecasters while preserving the lightweight profile of the backbone. Controlled three-seed ablations show that each component contributes, that the benefit is modest on strongly periodic data and pronounced on the harder Exchange and ILI datasets, and that the within-period context is the most influential single component. The implementation is publicly available at https://github.com/yangqingyuan-byte/FRWKV-plus.

  • 6 authors
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Jun 6

On the matrices in B-spline collocation methods for Riesz fractional equations and their spectral properties

In this work, we focus on a fractional differential equation in Riesz form discretized by a polynomial B-spline collocation method. For an arbitrary polynomial degree p, we show that the resulting coefficient matrices possess a Toeplitz-like structure. We investigate their spectral properties via their symbol and we prove that, like for second order differential problems, also in this case the given matrices are ill-conditioned both in the low and high frequencies for large p. More precisely, in the fractional scenario the symbol has a single zero at 0 of order α, with α the fractional derivative order that ranges from 1 to 2, and it presents an exponential decay to zero at π for increasing p that becomes faster as α approaches 1. This translates in a mitigated conditioning in the low frequencies and in a deterioration in the high frequencies when compared to second order problems. Furthermore, the derivation of the symbol reveals another similarity of our problem with a classical diffusion problem. Since the entries of the coefficient matrices are defined as evaluations of fractional derivatives of the B-spline basis at the collocation points, we are able to express the central entries of the coefficient matrix as inner products of two fractional derivatives of cardinal B-splines. Finally, we perform a numerical study of the approximation behavior of polynomial B-spline collocation. This study suggests that, in line with non-fractional diffusion problems, the approximation order for smooth solutions in the fractional case is p+2-α for even p, and p+1-α for odd p.

  • 4 authors
·
Jun 28, 2021

The Subtle Interplay between Square-root Impact, Order Imbalance & Volatility: A Unifying Framework

In this work, we aim to reconcile several apparently contradictory observations in market microstructure: is the famous "square-root law" of metaorder impact, which decays with time, compatible with the random-walk nature of prices and the linear impact of order imbalances? Can one entirely explain the volatility of prices as resulting from the flow of uninformed metaorders that mechanically impact them? We introduce a new theoretical framework to describe metaorders with different signs, sizes and durations, which all impact prices as a square-root of volume but with a subsequent time decay. We show that, as in the original propagator model, price diffusion is ensured by the long memory of cross-correlations between metaorders. In order to account for the effect of strongly fluctuating volumes q of individual trades, we further introduce two q-dependent exponents, which allow us to describe how the moments of generalized volume imbalance and the correlation between price changes and generalized order flow imbalance scale with T. We predict in particular that the corresponding power-laws depend in a non-monotonic fashion on a parameter a, which allows one to put the same weight on all child orders or to overweight large ones, a behaviour that is clearly borne out by empirical data. We also predict that the correlation between price changes and volume imbalances should display a maximum as a function of a, which again matches observations. Such noteworthy agreement between theory and data suggests that our framework correctly captures the basic mechanism at the heart of price formation, namely the average impact of metaorders. We argue that our results support the "Order-Driven" theory of excess volatility, and are at odds with the idea that a "Fundamental" component accounts for a large share of the volatility of financial markets.

  • 2 authors
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Mar 3

Kinematical correlations via κ-Poincaré coproducts

We study a kinematical consequence of the Hopf-algebraic momentum composition law in κ-Minkowski spacetime. The same curved momentum space can be described in different coordinates. In the bicrossproduct basis the ordered-plane-wave labels are the translation-generator eigenvalues, so the relevant map is one-to-one. In the classical basis, instead, the translation eigenvalues P_μ are nonlinearly related to the ordered-plane-wave labels p_μ. This relation can fail to be globally one-to-one in a high-momentum region. When a given classical-basis four-momentum admits more than one real auxiliary preimage, the branch-sensitive quantity P_+equiv P_0+P_4=κe^{p_0/κ} enters the coproduct and resolves the branches in two-particle states. Imposing the vanishing total-momentum constraint therefore gives branch-dependent κ-deformed back-to-back momentum correlations. In a single-branch regime this is just a deformed correlated product, while in a multibranch regime a state specified only by P_μ can be expanded into distinct auxiliary branches. If P_μ are taken as the directly meaningful momenta, the physical content is the resulting deformed correlation pattern. If the auxiliary variables p_μ are assigned operational meaning, the same constrained state can be interpreted as a superposition over different auxiliary branches. We also compare this structure with standard regular self-adjoint nonrelativistic minimal-length models and find no analogous smooth local two-real-branch inversion on their physical domains.

  • 2 authors
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Jun 1

A New Way: Kronecker-Factored Approximate Curvature Deep Hedging and its Benefits

This paper advances the computational efficiency of Deep Hedging frameworks through the novel integration of Kronecker-Factored Approximate Curvature (K-FAC) optimization. While recent literature has established Deep Hedging as a data-driven alternative to traditional risk management strategies, the computational burden of training neural networks with first-order methods remains a significant impediment to practical implementation. The proposed architecture couples Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks with K-FAC second-order optimization, specifically addressing the challenges of sequential financial data and curvature estimation in recurrent networks. Empirical validation using simulated paths from a calibrated Heston stochastic volatility model demonstrates that the K-FAC implementation achieves marked improvements in convergence dynamics and hedging efficacy. The methodology yields a 78.3% reduction in transaction costs (t = 56.88, p < 0.001) and a 34.4% decrease in profit and loss (P&L) variance compared to Adam optimization. Moreover, the K-FAC-enhanced model exhibits superior risk-adjusted performance with a Sharpe ratio of 0.0401, contrasting with -0.0025 for the baseline model. These results provide compelling evidence that second-order optimization methods can materially enhance the tractability of Deep Hedging implementations. The findings contribute to the growing literature on computational methods in quantitative finance while highlighting the potential for advanced optimization techniques to bridge the gap between theoretical frameworks and practical applications in financial markets.

  • 1 authors
·
Nov 22, 2024